Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine learning ensembles are computationally expensive. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but do not account for epistemic uncertainty.. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to those obtained from ensembles. Through applications of classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods, while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. In order to encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning in Earth System Science, we have developed a new Python package, MILES-GUESS (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning

Identification of Radiopure Titanium for the LZ Dark Matter Experiment and Future Rare Event Searches

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will search for dark matter particle interactions with a detector containing a total of 10 tonnes of liquid xenon within a double-vessel cryostat. The large mass and proximity of the cryostat to the active detector volume demand the use of material with extremely low intrinsic radioactivity. We report on the radioassay campaign conducted to identify suitable metals, the determination of factors limiting radiopure production, and the selection of titanium for construction of the LZ cryostat and other detector components. This titanium has been measured with activities of $^{238}$U$_{e}$~$<$1.6~mBq/kg, $^{238}$U$_{l}$~$<$0.09~mBq/kg, $^{232}$Th$_{e}$~$=0.28\pm 0.03$~mBq/kg, $^{232}$Th$_{l}$~$=0.25\pm 0.02$~mBq/kg, $^{40}$K~$<$0.54~mBq/kg, and $^{60}$Co~$<$0.02~mBq/kg (68\% CL). Such low intrinsic activities, which are some of the lowest ever reported for titanium, enable its use for future dark matter and other rare event searches. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to assess the expected background contribution from the LZ cryostat with this radioactivity. In 1,000 days of WIMP search exposure of a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, the cryostat will contribute only a mean background of $0.160\pm0.001$(stat)$\pm0.030$(sys) counts.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physic

First Dark Matter Search Results from the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN experiment is a dark matter detector centered on a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. This Letter reports results from LUX-ZEPLIN's first search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) with an exposure of 60 live days using a fiducial mass of 5.5 t. A profile-likelihood ratio analysis shows the data to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis, setting new limits on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon, spin-dependent WIMP-neutron, and spin-dependent WIMP-proton cross sections for WIMP masses above 9 GeV/c2. The most stringent limit is set for spin-independent scattering at 36 GeV/c2, rejecting cross sections above 9.2×10-48 cm at the 90% confidence level

First Dark Matter Search Results from the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a dark matter detector centered on a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. This Letter reports results from LZ's first search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) with an exposure of 60 live days using a fiducial mass of 5.5 t. A profile-likelihood ratio analysis shows the data to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis, setting new limits on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon, spin-dependent WIMP-neutron, and spin-dependent WIMP-proton cross-sections for WIMP masses above 9 GeV/c$^2$. The most stringent limit is set at 30 GeV/c$^2$, excluding cross sections above 5.9$\times 10^{-48}$ cm$^2$ at the 90\% confidence level.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. See https://tinyurl.com/LZDataReleaseRun1 for a data release related to this pape

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

We describe the design and assembly of the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment, a direct detection search for cosmic WIMP dark matter particles. The centerpiece of the experiment is a large liquid xenon time projection chamber sensitive to low energy nuclear recoils. Rejection of backgrounds is enhanced by a Xe skin veto detector and by a liquid scintillator Outer Detector loaded with gadolinium for efficient neutron capture and tagging. LZ is located in the Davis Cavern at the 4850' level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. We describe the major subsystems of the experiment and its key design features and requirements

Identification of Radiopure Titanium for the LZ Dark Matter Experiment and Future Rare Event Searches

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will search for dark matter particle interactions with a detector containing a total of 10 tonnes of liquid xenon within a double-vessel cryostat. The large mass and proximity of the cryostat to the active detector volume demand the use of material with extremely low intrinsic radioactivity. We report on the radioassay campaign conducted to identify suitable metals, the determination of factors limiting radiopure production, and the selection of titanium for construction of the LZ cryostat and other detector components. This titanium has been measured with activities of $^{238}$U$_{e}$~$<$1.6~mBq/kg, $^{238}$U$_{l}$~$<$0.09~mBq/kg, $^{232}$Th$_{e}$~$=0.28\pm 0.03$~mBq/kg, $^{232}$Th$_{l}$~$=0.25\pm 0.02$~mBq/kg, $^{40}$K~$<$0.54~mBq/kg, and $^{60}$Co~$<$0.02~mBq/kg (68\% CL). Such low intrinsic activities, which are some of the lowest ever reported for titanium, enable its use for future dark matter and other rare event searches. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to assess the expected background contribution from the LZ cryostat with this radioactivity. In 1,000 days of WIMP search exposure of a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, the cryostat will contribute only a mean background of $0.160\pm0.001$(stat)$\pm0.030$(sys) counts

LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Technical Design Report

In this Technical Design Report (TDR) we describe the LZ detector to be built at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF). The LZ dark matter experiment is designed to achieve sensitivity to a WIMP-nucleon spin-independent cross section of three times ten to the negative forty-eighth square centimeters