Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Thioredoxin Reductase-1 Negatively Regulates HIV-1 Transactivating Protein Tat-dependent Transcription in Human Macrophages*

Epidemiological studies suggest a correlation between severity of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and selenium deficiency, indicating a protective role for this anti-oxidant during HIV infection. Here we demonstrate that thioredoxin reductase-1 (TR1), a selenium-containing pyridine nucleotide-disulfide oxidoreductase that reduces protein disulfides to free thiols, negatively regulates the activity of the HIV-1 encoded transcriptional activator, Tat, in human macrophages. We used a small interfering RNA approach as well as a high affinity substrate of TR1, ebselen, to demonstrate that Tat-dependent transcription and HIV-1 replication were significantly increased in human macrophages when TR1 activity was reduced. The increase in HIV-1 replication in TR1 small interfering RNA-treated cells was independent of the redox-sensitive transcription factor, NF-κB. These studies indicate that TR-1 acts as a negative regulator of Tat-dependent transcription. Furthermore, in vitro biochemical assays with recombinant Tat protein confirmed that TR1 targets two disulfide bonds within the Cys-rich motif required for efficient HIV-1 transactivation. Increasing TR1 expression along with other selenoproteins by supplementing with selenium suggests a potential inexpensive adjuvant therapy for HIV/AIDS patients

Synthesis and evaluation of the anti-inflammatory properties of selenium-derivatives of celecoxib

Celecoxib is a selective cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 inhibitor used to treat inflammation, while selenium is known to down-regulate the transcription of COX-2 and other pro-inflammatory genes. To expand the anti-inflammatory property, wherein celecoxib could inhibit pro-inflammatory gene expression at extremely low doses, we incorporated selenium (Se) into two Se-derivatives of celecoxib, namely; selenocoxib-2 and selenocoxib-3. In vitro kinetic assays of the inhibition of purified human COX-2 activity by these compounds indicated that celecoxib and selenocoxib-3 had identical K(I) values of 2.3 and 2.4μM; while selenocoxib-2 had a lower K(I) of 0.72μM. Furthermore, selenocoxib-2 inhibited lipopolysaccharide-induced activation of NF-κB leading to the down-regulation of expression of COX-2, iNOS, and TNFα more effectively than selenocoxib-3 and celecoxib in RAW264.7 macrophages and murine bone marrow-derived macrophages. Studies with rat liver microsomes followed by UPLC-MS-MS analysis indicated the formation of selenenylsulfide conjugates of selenocoxib-2 with N-acetylcysteine. Selenocoxib-2 was found to release minor amounts of Se that was effectively inhibited by the CYP inhibitor, sulphaphenazole. While these studies suggest that selenocoxib-2, but not celecoxib and selenocoxib-3, targets upstream events in the NF-κB signaling axis, the ability to effectively suppress NF-κB activation independent of cellular selenoprotein synthesis opens possibilities for a new generation of COX-2 inhibitors with significant and broader anti-inflammatory potential

Activation of GPR44 decreases severity of myeloid leukemia via specific targeting of leukemia initiating stem cells

Summary: Relapse of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) remains a significant concern due to persistent leukemia-initiating stem cells (LICs) that are typically not targeted by most existing therapies. Using a murine AML model, human AML cell lines, and patient samples, we show that AML LICs are sensitive to endogenous and exogenous cyclopentenone prostaglandin-J (CyPG), Δ12-PGJ2, and 15d-PGJ2, which are increased upon dietary selenium supplementation via the cyclooxygenase-hematopoietic PGD synthase pathway. CyPGs are endogenous ligands for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma and GPR44 (CRTH2; PTGDR2). Deletion of GPR44 in a mouse model of AML exacerbated the disease suggesting that GPR44 activation mediates selenium-mediated apoptosis of LICs. Transcriptomic analysis of GPR44−/− LICs indicated that GPR44 activation by CyPGs suppressed KRAS-mediated MAPK and PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathways, to enhance apoptosis. Our studies show the role of GPR44, providing mechanistic underpinnings of the chemopreventive and chemotherapeutic properties of selenium and CyPGs in AML

Selenium modifies the osteoblast inflammatory stress response to bone metastatic breast cancer

Breast cancer frequently metastasizes to the skeleton resulting in bone degradation due to osteoclast activation. Metastases also downregulate differentiation and the bone-rebuilding function of osteoblasts. Moreover, cancer cells trigger osteoblast inflammatory stress responses. Pro-inflammatory mediators such as interleukin (IL)-6, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), expressed by osteoblasts (MC3T3-E1) stimulated with human breast cancer cell (MDA-MB-231) conditioned medium, are pivotal to osteoclast activation and metastasis. Given that these genes are regulated by nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB), a redox-sensitive transcription factor, we hypothesized that selenium (Se) could abrogate the inflammatory response to metastatic breast cancer cells by modulating NF-κB. Caffeic acid phenethyl ester and parthenolide inhibited NF-κB activation, as seen by gel shift assays and immunoblotting for p65 in nuclear fractions, as well as decreased production of IL-6 and MCP-1. Supplementation of MC3T3-E1 with methylseleninic acid (MSA) (0.5 μM to 4 μM) reduced the activation of NF-κB leading to a decrease in IL-6, MCP-1, COX-2 and iNOS in response to MDA-MB-231 conditioned medium. Addition of MSA to osteoblasts for as little as 15 min suppressed activation of NF-κB suggesting that short-lived active metabolites might be involved. However, brief exposure to MSA also brought about an increase in selenoprotein glutathione peroxidase 1. In summary, our data indicate that the osteoblast response to metastatic breast cancer cells is regulated by NF-κB activation, which can be effectively suppressed by MSA either through short-lived active metabolites and/or selenoproteins. Thus, Se supplementation may prevent the osteoblast inflammatory response or dampen the vicious cycle established when breast cancer cells, osteoblasts and osteoclasts interact