On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift

The concept of a peso problem is formalized in terms of a linear Euler equation and a nonlinear marginal model describing the dynamics of the exogenous driving process. It is shown that, using a threshold autoregressive model as a marginal model, it is possible to produce time-varying peso premia. A Monte Carlo method and a method based on the numerical solution of integral equations are considered as tools for computing conditional future expectations in the marginal model. A Monte Carlo study illustrates the poor performance of the generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator in small and even relatively large samples. The poor performance is particularly acute in the presence of a peso problem but is also serious in the simple linear case.peso problem; Euler equations; GMM; threshold autoregressive models

Cosmic rays 10Be biennal data and their relationship to aurorae and sunspots

The galactic cosmic ray (C.R.) variations which should give information on three dimensional aspects of the heliospheric magnetic fields and on the solar wind, which modulate their influx into the Solar System were studied. In order to decode the information from the C.R. series it is necessary to know the mechanisms through which the modulation is produced. It it clear that a balance of effects with sources at different heliospheric latitudes results in the modulated C.R. intensity. It is found that the modulation of 10Be in polar ice may be due to at least two main contributions: (1) negative and in phase with the Solar flare activity modulating the cosmic ray flux in Forbush-type decreases, and (2) positive in phase with the appearance of large wind streams situated at both polar coronal holes. It is found that the high heliolatitude activity is related to a stable periodicity of 11.1y whereas the low heliolatitude activity contributes to the wondering of the solar cycles

Cosmic ray secular variations in terrestrial records and aurorae

The rediscovery that the Sun and the solar wind can undergo important changes on historical time scales has brought into question the stability of the cyclic behavior of past time series of solar and solar-terrestrial origin. It was found by Vector Fourier analysis that the solar 11 year cycle is present in the series of 10Be, delta 180, in ice cores and of thermoluminescence (TL) in sea sediments during the last Millennia with a frequency modulation, related to the Sun behavior, as tested by comparison with the Sunspot number R sub z series. It was shown that the cyclogram of the series of yearly Aurorae from 1721 to 1979 linear-regression-corrected-for-R sub z is straight for the periodicity zeta=11,1y, which indicates that such periodicity is constant in time corresponding to the only line present in the 11y band. The maxima of this component appear at the same time together with the high speed solar wind streams taking place in coronal holes situated in high heliolatitudes. It is evidenced that the 11 year cycle has undergone frequency oscillations on a time scale of two centuries, although it is very difficult to determine the periodicities with high accuracy

Self-Regulation of Star Formation in Low Metallicity Clouds

We investigate the process of self-regulated star formation via photodissociation of hydrogen molecules in low metallicity clouds. We evaluate the influence region's scale of a massive star in low metallicity gas clouds whose temperatures are between 100 and 10000 Kelvin. A single O star can photodissociate hydrogen molecules in the whole of the host cloud. If metallicity is smaller than about 10^{-2.5} of the solar metallicity, the depletion of coolant of the the host cloud is very serious so that the cloud cannot cool in a free-fall time, and subsequent star formation is almost quenched. On the contrary, if metallicity is larger than about 10^{-1.5} of the solar metallicity, star formation regulation via photodissociation is not efficient. The typical metallicity when this transition occurs is about 1/100 of the solar metallicity. This indicates that stars do not form efficiently before the metallicity becomes larger than about 1/100 of the solar metallicity and we considered that this value becomes the lower limit of the metallicity of luminous objects such as galaxies.Comment: 14 pages, including 5 figures, To appear in ApJ, Vol. 53

Thermal and Fragmentation Properties of Star-forming Clouds in Low-metallicity Environments

The thermal and chemical evolution of star-forming clouds is studied for different gas metallicities, Z, using the model of Omukai (2000), updated to include deuterium chemistry and the effects of cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation. HD-line cooling dominates the thermal balance of clouds when Z \~ 10^{-5}-10^{-3} Z_sun and density ~10^{5} cm^{-3}. Early on, CMB radiation prevents the gas temperature to fall below T_CMB, although this hardly alters the cloud thermal evolution in low-metallicity gas. From the derived temperature evolution, we assess cloud/core fragmentation as a function of metallicity from linear perturbation theory, which requires that the core elongation E := (b-a)/a > E_NL ~ 1, where a (b) is the short (long) core axis length. The fragment mass is given by the thermal Jeans mass at E = E_NL. Given these assumptions and the initial (gaussian) distribution of E we compute the fragment mass distribution as a function of metallicity. We find that: (i) For Z=0, all fragments are very massive, > 10^{3}M_sun, consistently with previous studies; (ii) for Z>10^{-6} Z_sun a few clumps go through an additional high density (> 10^{10} cm^{-3}) fragmentation phase driven by dust-cooling, leading to low-mass fragments; (iii) The mass fraction in low-mass fragments is initially very small, but at Z ~ 10^{-5}Z_sun it becomes dominant and continues to grow as Z is increased; (iv) as a result of the two fragmentation modes, a bimodal mass distribution emerges in 0.01 0.1Z_sun, the two peaks merge into a singly-peaked mass function which might be regarded as the precursor of the ordinary Salpeter-like IMF.Comment: 38 pages, 16 figures, ApJ in pres

BeppoSAX observations of the black hole candidates LMC X-1 and LMC X-3

We describe BeppoSAX observations of the black hole candidates LMC X--1 and LMC X--3 performed in Oct. 1997. Both sources can be modelled by a multicolor accretion disk spectrum, with temperature $\sim 1$ keV. However, there is some evidence that a thin emitting component coexists with the thick disk at these temperatures. In the direction of LMC X--1, we detected a significant emission above 10 keV, which we suspect originates from the nearby source PSR 0540-69. For LMC X--1, we estimate an absorbing column density of $\simeq 6\times 10^{21}$ cm$^{-2}$, which is almost ten times larger than that found for LMC X--3. In both sources, we find no indication of emission or absorption features whatsoever.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for pubblication in the Proc. of 32nd Cospar scientific assembly, Nagoya, 13-15 July 199

Zero-point vacancies in quantum solids

A Jastrow wave function (JWF) and a shadow wave function (SWF) describe a quantum solid with Bose--Einstein condensate; i.e. a supersolid. It is known that both JWF and SWF describe a quantum solid with also a finite equilibrium concentration of vacancies x_v. We outline a route for estimating x_v by exploiting the existing formal equivalence between the absolute square of the ground state wave function and the Boltzmann weight of a classical solid. We compute x_v for the quantum solids described by JWF and SWF employing very accurate numerical techniques. For JWF we find a very small value for the zero point vacancy concentration, x_v=(1.4\pm0.1) x 10^-6. For SWF, which presently gives the best variational description of solid 4He, we find the significantly larger value x_v=(1.4\pm0.1) x 10^-3 at a density close to melting. We also study two and three vacancies. We find that there is a strong short range attraction but the vacancies do not form a bound state.Comment: 19 pages, submitted to J. Low Temp. Phy