Evidence for Partial Taylor Relaxation from Changes in Magnetic Geometry and Energy during a Solar Flare

Solar flares are powered by energy stored in the coronal magnetic field, a portion of which is released when the field reconfigures into a lower energy state. Investigation of sunspot magnetic field topology during flare activity is useful to improve our understanding of flaring processes. Here we investigate the deviation of the non-linear field configuration from that of the linear and potential configurations, and study the free energy available leading up to and after a flare. The evolution of the magnetic field in NOAA region 10953 was examined using data from Hinode/SOT-SP, over a period of 12 hours leading up to and after a GOES B1.0 flare. Previous work on this region found pre- and post-flare changes in photospheric vector magnetic field parameters of flux elements outside the primary sunspot. 3D geometry was thus investigated using potential, linear force-free, and non-linear force-free field extrapolations in order to fully understand the evolution of the field lines. Traced field line geometrical and footpoint orientation differences show that the field does not completely relax to a fully potential or linear force-free state after the flare. Magnetic and free magnetic energies increase significantly ~ 6.5-2.5 hours before the flare by ~ 10^31 erg. After the flare, the non-linear force-free magnetic energy and free magnetic energies decrease but do not return to pre-flare 'quiet' values. The post-flare non-linear force-free field configuration is closer (but not equal) to that of the linear force-free field configuration than a potential one. However, the small degree of similarity suggests that partial Taylor relaxation has occurred over a time scale of ~ 3-4 hours.Comment: Accepted for Publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics. 11 pages, 11 figure

Automated Coronal Hole Identification via Multi-Thermal Intensity Segmentation

Coronal holes (CH) are regions of open magnetic fields that appear as dark areas in the solar corona due to their low density and temperature compared to the surrounding quiet corona. To date, accurate identification and segmentation of CHs has been a difficult task due to their comparable intensity to local quiet Sun regions. Current segmentation methods typically rely on the use of single EUV passband and magnetogram images to extract CH information. Here, the Coronal Hole Identification via Multi-thermal Emission Recognition Algorithm (CHIMERA) is described, which analyses multi-thermal images from the Atmospheric Image Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to segment coronal hole boundaries by their intensity ratio across three passbands (171 \AA, 193 \AA, and 211 \AA). The algorithm allows accurate extraction of CH boundaries and many of their properties, such as area, position, latitudinal and longitudinal width, and magnetic polarity of segmented CHs. From these properties, a clear linear relationship was identified between the duration of geomagnetic storms and coronal hole areas. CHIMERA can therefore form the basis of more accurate forecasting of the start and duration of geomagnetic storms

The association of obesity and severe dengue:possible pathophysiological mechanisms

Dengue virus (DENV) is a medically important flavivirus and the aetiological agent of Dengue, a normally self-resolving febrile illness that, in some individuals, can progress into Severe Dengue (SD), a life-threatening disorder that manifests as organ impairment, bleeding and shock. Many different risk factors have been associated with the development of SD, one of which is obesity. In many countries where DENV is endemic, obesity is becoming more prevalent, therefore SD is becoming an increased public health concern. However, there is a paucity of research on the mechanistic links between obesity and SD. This is a narrative review based on original research and reviews sourced from PubMed and Google Scholar. Four key areas could possibly explain how obesity can promote viral pathogenesis. Firstly, obesity downregulates AMP-Protein Kinase (AMPK), which leads to an accumulation of lipids in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) that facilitates viral replication. Secondly, the long-term production of pro-inflammatory adipokines found in obese individuals can cause endothelial and platelet dysfunction and can facilitate SD. Thirdly, obesity could also cause endothelial dysfunction in addition to chronic inflammation, through the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and possible damage to the glycocalyx found in the endothelium. Finally, obesity has several effects on immunomodulation that reduces NK cell function, B and T cell response and increased pre-disposition to stronger pro-inflammatory cytokine responses after viral infection. Together, these effects can lead to greater viral proliferation and greater tissue damage both of which could contribute to SD. The four mechanisms outlined in this review can be taken as reference starting points for investigating the link between obesity and SD, and to discover potential therapeutic strategies that can potentially reduce disease severity

Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares: Methods for Combining Models

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used by the terrestrial weather community to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASAP, ASSA, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and MCSTAT). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. It is found that most ensembles achieve a better skill metric (between 5\% and 15\%) than any of the members alone. Moreover, over 90\% of ensembles perform better (as measured by forecast attributes) than a simple equal-weights average. Finally, ensemble uncertainties are highly dependent on the internal metric being optimized and they are estimated to be less than 20\% for probabilities greater than 0.2. This simple multi-model, linear ensemble technique can provide operational space weather centres with the basis for constructing a versatile ensemble forecasting system -- an improved starting point to their forecasts that can be tailored to different end-user needs

Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares: Methods for Combining Models

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used by the terrestrial weather community to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASAP, ASSA, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and MCSTAT). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. It is found that most ensembles achieve a better skill metric (between 5\% and 15\%) than any of the members alone. Moreover, over 90\% of ensembles perform better (as measured by forecast attributes) than a simple equal-weights average. Finally, ensemble uncertainties are highly dependent on the internal metric being optimized and they are estimated to be less than 20\% for probabilities greater than 0.2. This simple multi-model, linear ensemble technique can provide operational space weather centres with the basis for constructing a versatile ensemble forecasting system -- an improved starting point to their forecasts that can be tailored to different end-user needs.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climat

Advancing Our Understanding of Corneal Herpes Simplex Virus-1 Immune Evasion Mechanisms and Future Therapeutics

Herpes stromal keratitis (HSK) is a disease that commonly affects the cornea and external eye and is caused by Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 (HSV-1). This virus infects approximately 66% of people worldwide; however, only a small portion of these people will develop symptoms in their lifetime. There is no cure or vaccine available for HSV-1; however, there are treatments available that aim to control the inflammation caused by the virus and prevent its recurrence. While these treatments are beneficial to those suffering with HSK, there is a need for more effective treatments to minimise the need for topical steroids, which can have harmful effects, and to prevent bouts of disease reactivation, which can lead to progressive corneal scarring and visual impairment. This review details the current understanding of HSV-1 infection and discusses potential novel treatment options including microRNAs, TLRs, mAbs, and aptamers

Environmental regulation in transition: Policy officials’ views of regulatory instruments and their mapping to environmental risks

This study re-analysed 14 semi-structured interviews with policy officials from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to explore the use of a variety of regulatory instruments and different levels of risk across 14 policy domains and 18 separately named risks. Interviews took place within a policy environment of a better regulation agenda and of broader regulatory reform. Of 619 (n) coded references to 5 categories of regulatory instrument, ‘command and control’ regulation (n = 257) and support mechanisms (n = 118) dominated the discussions, with a preference for ‘command and control’ cited in 8 of the policy domains. A framing analysis revealed officials' views on instrument effectiveness, including for sub-categories of the 5 key instruments. Views were mixed, though notably positive for economic instruments including taxation, fiscal instruments and information provision. An overlap analysis explored officials' mapping of public environmental risks to instrument types suited to their management. While officials frequently cite risk concepts generally within discussions, the extent of overlap for risks of specific significance was low across all risks. Only ‘command and control’ was mapped to risks of moderate significance in likelihood and impact severity. These results show that policy makers still prefer ‘command and control’ approaches when a certainty of outcome is sought and that alternative means are sought for lower risk situations. The detailed reasons for selection, including the mapping of certain instruments to specific risk characteristics, is still developing

GROWING UP IN IRELAND. COHORT ’08 (Infant Cohort). Report on the Pilot for Wave Five of the Cohort ’08 Survey (at 9 Years of Age)

This report summarises the experience of the pilot fieldwork with the Growing Up in Ireland Cohort ’08 (formerly the Infant Cohort) at 9 years of age. This wave represents the fifth survey for this cohort who were first interviewed at age 9 months – and subsequently surveyed at 3, 5 and 7/8 years. It is also the first time that the younger cohort has reached an age where there was also data collection for Cohort ’98 (formerly the Child Cohort). The report is intended to inform data-users of the role played by the pilot process in informing the final instrumentation and procedures for the main phase of data collection

Loss-cone instability modulation due to a magnetohydrodynamic sausage mode oscillation in the solar corona

Solar flares often involve the acceleration of particles to relativistic energies and the generation of high-intensity bursts of radio emission. In some cases, the radio bursts can show periodic or quasiperiodic intensity pulsations. However, precisely how these pulsations are generated is still subject to debate. Prominent theories employ mechanisms such as periodic magnetic reconnection, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) oscillations, or some combination of both. Here we report on high-cadence (0.25 s) radio imaging of a 228 MHz radio source pulsating with a period of 2.3 s during a solar flare on 2014-April-18. The pulsating source is due to an MHD sausage mode oscillation periodically triggering electron acceleration in the corona. The periodic electron acceleration results in the modulation of a loss-cone instability, ultimately resulting in pulsating plasma emission. The results show that a complex combination of MHD oscillations and plasma instability modulation can lead to pulsating radio emission in astrophysical environments.Peer reviewe