Introduction

The project implemented with Narodowy Bank Polski under the Economic Education Programme

Economic Growth, Corporate Earnings and Equity Returns: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper discusses the links between economic growth, corporate earnings and stock returns. Cross-country correlation studies do not confirm the intuitive assumption that higher returns on equities are more likely in the faster-growing countries. The problem can be analysed more deeply by analysing stock returns with respect to the growth of earnings per share (EPS) and changes in valuation (P/E ratio). Within this framework, two types of factors explaining the lack of correlation between GDP growth and stock returns are distinguished. The empirical research on developed and emerging market countries reveals that in the long run stock price returns are driven by companies’ earnings, and that the lack of correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is almost fully explained by the divergence between GDP growth and EPS growth. In this article the results of an investigation into this area, based on a sample of post-communist Central and Eastern European countries, are presented and discussed. It was found that in these countries changes in valuation (P/E ratio) appear to play an important role, cancelling the impact of EPS growth on stock returns

Earnings Management in Polish Companies

This paper presents results of the investigation of a phenomenon known as "earnings management'' (EM) among the companies listed on the Polish stock market. The distribution of earnings per share (EPS) for the stocks around the threshold value of "zero" and the threshold of "recent performance" was analyzed in the period of years 1997-2010. Moreover, the changes of earnings for the stocks, which are suspected to manipulate their earnings, were also investigated. The results, which indicate asymmetric distribution of earnings around the zero threshold along with the relative deterioration of earnings in the year following the period when the companies were suspected to conduct earnings management practices, provide evidence that this phenomenon exists among Polish stock market companies.W artykule zaprezentowano rezultaty analizy zjawiska znanego jako "zarządzanie zyskami'', wśród spółek z polskiego rynku kapitałowego. Przeanalizowano rozkład zysku na akcję wokół progu "zero'' oraz progu wyznaczonego w oparciu o wartości zysku na akcję z okresu przeszłego w okresie 1997-2010. Wyniki badania potwierdziły występowanie asymetrii rozkładu zysku na akcję wokół progu "zero'' oraz spadek zysków w latach następujących po "zarządzaniu zyskiem'' co wskazuje na występowanie analizowanego zjawiska na polskim rynku kapitałowym

Output and Expected Returns in Central and Eastern European Countries

Theoretical background: Although some controversy remains, some aspects of the predictability of aggregate stock market returns in the United States and other industrialized countries appear to be relatively well established. Intertemporal asset pricing models based on the paradigm of investor rationality and market efficiency imply that various macro variables describing the state of the economy may forecast future returns on the aggregate stock market.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to present the results of a preliminary study which set out to determine whether the ratio of the stock index to the aggregate output in the economy and future rates of return in the aggregate stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe are significantly related to each other over different time horizons.Research methods: Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent estimators with a small sample degrees of freedom adjustment were used in regressions to track overlapping data problem and small sample bias.Main findings: The analysis of the key market indices has shown that they explain much of the variation in the long-horizon future cumulative returns, as well as in cumulative excess returns.Theoretical background: Although some controversy remains, some aspects of the predictability of aggregate stock market returns in the United States and other industrialized countries appear to be relatively well established. Intertemporal asset pricing models based on the paradigm of investor rationality and market efficiency imply that various macro variables describing the state of the economy may forecast future returns on the aggregate stock market.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to present the results of a preliminary study which set out to determine whether the ratio of the stock index to the aggregate output in the economy and future rates of return in the aggregate stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe are significantly related to each other over different time horizons.Research methods: Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent estimators with a small sample degrees of freedom adjustment were used in regressions to track overlapping data problem and small sample bias.Main findings: The analysis of the key market indices has shown that they explain much of the variation in the long-horizon future cumulative returns, as well as in cumulative excess returns

Wstęp

Wstęp do Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 226Zadanie pt. „Digitalizacja i udostępnienie w Cyfrowym Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego kolekcji czasopism naukowych wydawanych przez Uniwersytet Łódzki” nr 885/P-DUN/2014 zostało dofinansowane ze środków MNiSW w ramach działalności upowszechniającej nauk

Changes in the Capital Structure of Polish Companies During the Last Twenty Years (1997–2017)

Theoretical background: The capital structure is one of the most important areas in the modern theory of corporate finance. It has inspired the development of a large number of theoretical approaches, but a universally accepted theory of capital structure has not yet been developed. A common belief holds that companies try to achieve a stable capital structure in the long term; thus, companies that, at a given time, are characterised by a relatively low (or high) level of debt, also probably had the same level in previous periods.Purpose of the article: The main purpose of this paper is to provide answers to two basic questions: 1) How did the aggregate capital structure of the non-financial companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) change from 1997 to 2017?; 2) What factors are decisive for the companies’ capital structure and do the current trends in capital structure theory take account of them?Research methods: The research is carried out in two phases. In phase 1, the descriptive statistics method is applied to analyse how the capital structure of WSE-listed companies changed in the years 1997–2017. In phase 2, the capital structure determinants are examined using multiple regression models.Main findings: The capital structure of WSE companies varied significantly in the sample years, and overall, the debt ratios, total, short-, and long-term debt slightly increased. The causes of the changes were the economic environment factors (banking sector assets, government debt, and corporate income tax) and macroeconomic circumstances, along with the companies’ characteristics. Among the latter, the company’s profitability and the share of fixed assets in total assets usually turned out to be statistically significant.Theoretical background: The capital structure is one of the most important areas in the modern theory of corporate finance. It has inspired the development of a large number of theoretical approaches, but a universally accepted theory of capital structure has not yet been developed. A common belief holds that companies try to achieve a stable capital structure in the long term; thus, companies that, at a given time, are characterised by a relatively low (or high) level of debt, also probably had the same level in previous periods.Purpose of the article: The main purpose of this paper is to provide answers to two basic questions: 1) How did the aggregate capital structure of the non-financial companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) change from 1997 to 2017?; 2) What factors are decisive for the companies’ capital structure and do the current trends in capital structure theory take account of them?Research methods: The research is carried out in two phases. In phase 1, the descriptive statistics method is applied to analyse how the capital structure of WSE-listed companies changed in the years 1997–2017. In phase 2, the capital structure determinants are examined using multiple regression models.Main findings: The capital structure of WSE companies varied significantly in the sample years, and overall, the debt ratios, total, short-, and long-term debt slightly increased. The causes of the changes were the economic environment factors (banking sector assets, government debt, and corporate income tax) and macroeconomic circumstances, along with the companies’ characteristics. Among the latter, the company’s profitability and the share of fixed assets in total assets usually turned out to be statistically significant

Bitcoin as a new currency.

Bitcoin is the most popular financial instrument within the new cryptocurrencies class, which emerged in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of Bitcoin from the perspective of the Polish market investor. More specifically, the aim of the empirical research presented in this study has been twofold: (1) comparison of Bitcoin with other currencies using returns and risk captured by the standard deviation of returns and (2) assessment of the sensitivity of the BTC/PLN exchange rate to the NBP’s monetary policy announcements. Bitcoin appears to be weakly related to other currency exchange rates against the Polish zloty and the monetary policy announcements of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) have, effectively, no influence on the determination of the BTC/PLN exchange rate. We discuss extensively the Bitcoin as a new asset on the financial market and we present the investigation of the BTC/PLN reactions to the monetary policy announcements in Poland, which is a novel analysis for this instrument using the Polish market data

Capital Structure of Companies Listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on Their Risk

Subject: The financial management of companies is examined in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the relationship between their capital structure and risk changes during the pandemic is scrutinised.The purpose of the article: To determine how companies’ total, systematic and idiosyncratic risks changed during the COVID-19 pandemic depending on their capital structure based on a sample of organisations listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange.Methodology: The study involves the use of a panel data regression model.Results of the research: The COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the risk of overleveraged companies and underleveraged ones alike. Its influence on their total risk was weaker among the underleveraged organisations. Regarding systematic risk, its levels did not generally change significantly in the wake of the pandemic, but idiosyncratic risk, only in the case of the overleveraged companies increased statistically significantly

How risky are the socially responsible investment (SRI) stocks? Evidence from the Central and Eastern European (CEE) companies

We evaluate the risk of the socially responsible investment (SRI) stocks from the Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets. Our analysis covers the data from the first and oldest national sustainability stock market index introduced in the CEE countries, i.e. the RESPECT index listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) in Poland, which was launched in 2009. The RESPECT index stocks are compared with other CEE stocks belonging to the CECE SRI index from the broader CEE region listed at the Vienna Stock Exchange (VSE). The beta coefficients and other risk measures evidence that the SRI stocks in Poland, which were constituents of the RESPECT index, have been characterised by relatively lower risk than the broader market and by better risk-adjusted performance. They also exhibited an asymmetric risk behavior patterns. In comparison, the CECE SRI index stocks were also characterised by lower risk than the market, asymmetric risk effects and superior risk-adjusted performance. Overall, we conclude that the investigated SRI companies from the CEE countries are less risky relative to the broader market, but their behavior exhibits clearly asymmetric risk patterns