Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy – with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector’s annuity burden – but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.disability, health care costs, social security, microsimulation

International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.disability, mortality, international comparisons, microsimulation

International Differences in Longevity and Health and Their Economic Consequences

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.disability, mortality, international comparisons, microsimulation

Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy − with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden − but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.disability, health care costs, social security, microsimulation

Global Demography Expert Survey on the Drivers and Consequences of Demographic Change

Insight into the future of the world population is key for policy planning. At present, several organisations engage in developing global long-term population projections and provide varied results in terms of projected population size and structures. This diversity demonstrates that there is a need to reflect on the ingredients that feed into the projections. For this reason, the JRC, IIASA and the UN Population Division launched a survey where experts were asked to assess the validity and relevance of alternative arguments about the forces that could shape future fertility, mortality, and migration trends in the country of their choice. The results of the survey highlight that experts almost unanimously support the roles played by urbanisation, reductions in child mortality, greater educational attainment, and employment opportunities for women in decreasing fertility in high fertility countries. At the same time, life expectancy is expected to continue increasing across world regions, with the most significant improvements projected by experts in current 'low mortality' countries. Experts on migration mostly agree that climate change will lead to a rise in immigration. However, there is less agreement on the forces driving emigration. As a broad conclusion, the expert opinions seem to indicate that demographic challenges of the future do not necessarily have demographic solutions, and will instead necessitate improved adaptive capacities among all societies

Nonstationary Stochastic Resonance in a Single Neuron-Like System

Stochastic resonance holds much promise for the detection of weak signals in the presence of relatively loud noise. Following the discovery of nondynamical and of aperiodic stochastic resonance, it was recently shown that the phenomenon can manifest itself even in the presence of nonstationary signals. This was found in a composite system of differentiated trigger mechanisms mounted in parallel, which suggests that it could be realized in some elementary neural networks or nonlinear electronic circuits. Here, we find that even an individual trigger system may be able to detect weak nonstationary signals using stochastic resonance. The very simple modification to the trigger mechanism that makes this possible is reminiscent of some aspects of actual neuron physics. Stochastic resonance may thus become relevant to more types of biological or electronic systems injected with an ever broader class of realistic signals.Comment: Plain Latex, 7 figure

Noise suppression by noise

We have analyzed the interplay between an externally added noise and the intrinsic noise of systems that relax fast towards a stationary state, and found that increasing the intensity of the external noise can reduce the total noise of the system. We have established a general criterion for the appearance of this phenomenon and discussed two examples in detail.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Synchronization and resonance in a driven system of coupled oscillators

We study the noise effects in a driven system of globally coupled oscillators, with particular attention to the interplay between driving and noise. The self-consistency equation for the order parameter, which measures the collective synchronization of the system, is derived; it is found that the total order parameter decreases monotonically with noise, indicating overall suppression of synchronization. Still, for large coupling strengths, there exists an optimal noise level at which the periodic (ac) component of the order parameter reaches its maximum. The response of the phase velocity is also examined and found to display resonance behavior.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figure

Phase synchronization and noise-induced resonance in systems of coupled oscillators

We study synchronization and noise-induced resonance phenomena in systems of globally coupled oscillators, each possessing finite inertia. The behavior of the order parameter, which measures collective synchronization of the system, is investigated as the noise level and the coupling strength are varied, and hysteretic behavior is manifested. The power spectrum of the phase velocity is also examined and the quality factor as well as the response function is obtained to reveal noise-induced resonance behavior.Comment: to be published in Phys. Rev.

Abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of western gray whales in relation to a 3-D seismic survey, Northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia

A geophysical seismic survey was conducted in the summer of 2001 off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island, Russia. The area of seismic exploration was immediately adjacent to the Piltun feeding grounds of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus). This study investigates relative abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of gray whales in relation to occurrence and proximity to the seismic survey by employing scan sampling, focal follow, and theodolite tracking methodologies. These data were analyzed in relation to temporal, environmental, and seismic related variables to evaluate potential disturbance reactions of gray whales to the seismic survey. The relative numbers of whales and pods recorded from five shore-based stations were not significantly different during periods when seismic surveys were occurring compared to periods when no seismic surveys were occurring and to the post-seismic period. Univariate analyses indicated no significant statistical correlation between seismic survey variables and any of the eleven movement and behavior variables. Multiple regression analyses indicated that, after accounting for temporal and environmental variables, 6 of 11 movement and behavior variables (linearity, acceleration, mean direction, blows per surfacing, and surface-dive blow rate) were not significantly associated with seismic survey variables, and 5 of 11 variables (leg speed, reorientation rate, distance-from-shore, blow interval, and dive time) were significantly associated with seismic survey variables. In summary, after accounting for environmental variables, no correlation was found between seismic survey variables and the linearity of whale movements, changes in whale swimming speed between theodolite fixes, mean direction of whale movement, mean number of whale exhalations per minute at the surface, mean time at the surface, and mean number of exhalations per minute during a whales surface-to-dive cycle. In contrast, at higher received sound energy exposure levels, whales traveled faster, changed directions of movement less, were recorded further from shore, and stayed under water longer between respirations