Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence. The issue of allowing for intercept dummies in the underlying inflation models is found to be of paramount importance to avoid overestimation of the level of persistence. The use of alternative measures of persistence is found to be commendable on the grounds that they complement each other in practice. JEL Classification: E31, E52, C22, C12Inflation Dynamics, median unbiased estimates, Structural change

Asymmetric Dynamics in the Current Account: Evidence from Long-Horizon Data

This letter investigates the presence of asymmetric dynamics in the behaviour of the current account as emphasized in recent theoretical contributions. We estimate a Markov switching model for long-horizon current account to GDP data for six countries and find substantial asymmetries in the behaviour of current account dynamics.Current account dynamics and sustainability; Markovswitching

How to Rate the Financial Performance of Private Companies? A Tailored Integrated Rating Methodology Applied to North-Eastern Italian Districts

This paper contributes to solving the puzzle of assessing the financial performance of private/unlisted companies. The inner characteristics of these companies make the adoption of traditional best practices in estimating risk premia difficult or impossible. Moreover, the lack of market data and comparable information biases the perception of corporate performance and generates the misallocation of credit fundings (both quantities and pricing). Hence, in this paper, we develop an Integrated Rating Methodology (IRM) to estimate a more efficient corporate “return-to-risk” measure. Our IRM is rooted in the seminal “certainty equivalent” model as developed by Lintner in 1965, but we modify it using a shortfall approach, and then compute a “confident equivalent” that is compliant with Fischer Black’s zero-beta model as well as the Basel agreements. An empirical application of the approach is conducted with a sample of 13,583 non-financial SMEs in the north-east regions of Italy, where there is evidence of inefficient bank financing. We back-test our IRM by rating these companies using corporate financial data during the period 2007–2014, which encompasses both the Great Financial Crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Our empirical results depict a clear crowding-out effect of credit allocations when we compare our IRM scoring measure with the actual raising ability and the cost of capital relating to these firms. We find that 36% of companies are underfunded, even if they have a superior IRM score, while 27% of them are funded without merit. Interestingly, this last figure is in line with the average non-performing loan ratio provided by official Italian statistics from 2015 to 2020. Therefore, we conclude that our IRM methodology is promising and may be better at estimating risk financing in small private companies (including start-ups) than internal banking models. These initial results will drive our forthcoming research towards creating an IRM 2.0

Improving port hinterland connection capacity: a comparative study of Polish and Belgian cases

The study takes a comparative approach by investigating the situation in the hinterlands of two different port areas in Europe: Antwerp (Belgium) and Gdansk-Sopot-Gdynia agglomeration (Poland). Both port centres have an important road hinterland connection that faces competition from other alternative modes of freight transport. However, the Port of Antwerp is already one of the leading ports of the continent while the ports of Gdansk and Gdynia are at the stage of building their competitive position. Also the importance of inland waterways in the transport systems in these countries is different – Belgium has a functioning network of waterways while Poland still has to develop it. The Belgian case is the E313 motorway, which makes the connection between Antwerp and Li�ge and further on also Germany. The motorway has competition from both rail and inland waterways, especially in dealing with port-bound traffic. The Albert Canal, which runs mainly in parallel with the motorway, is currently being subject to capacity expansion through the extension and elevation of a number bridges that cross the canal. Rail could specifically benefit from the potential re-activation of the Iron Rhine - an almost parallel connection to the motorway E313 between Antwerp and the German Ruhr area. The Polish case is focused on possible scenarios of freight traffic between Baltic port centre of Gdansk and Gdynia with important international harbour and fast developing regional centre - Bydgoszcz-Torun. At present the main connections between those urban areas are the state road 1, section of motorway A1 and railway CE-65. Gdansk, Torun and Bydgoszcz are also linked with Vistula river (part of international inland waterways E-40 and E-70) but so far it is not used extensively. The cases are analyzed separately. The added value of the paper is the comparative analysis which allows making conclusions that are valid for both environments. The results are of high relevance to policy makers in charge of alleviating port hinterland problems, and also to ports in the current highly competitive environment.

Authors' Response to Letter to the Editor

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/98450/1/end%2E2012%2E1527.pd

Long-term Outcomes of Immediate Versus Delayed Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

Purpose: To compare immediate nephroureterectomy with delayed nephroureterectomy after a trial of nephron-sparing endoscopic surgery in patients who were treated initially at our institution from 1996 to 2004 for upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Patients were monitored for upper tract recurrences, metastases, cancer-specific and overall survival. Survival outcomes and perioperative measurements were compared between treatment groups. Results: Of 73 patients, 62 underwent immediate nephroureterectomy and 11 proceeded to nephroureterectomy after failed endoscopic management. Mean follow-up for all patients was 58 months and 75 months for patients who were alive at last follow-up. Patients treated initially with endoscopy averaged a surveillance procedure every 3.7 months and had a median delay to nephroureterectomy of 10 months. Perioperative measurements at time of nephroureterectomy did not differ between groups. Overall survival 5 years from initial resection in the delayed group and from nephroureterectomy in the immediate group was 64% and 59%, respectively; the corresponding 5-year cancer-specific and metastasis-free survival estimates were 91% vs 80% and 77% vs 73%, respectively (P>0.05). Pathologic progression from low to high-grade occurred in three of seven patients from the delayed group. Conclusions: Failure of endoscopic management necessitating nephroureterectomy does not appear to affect survival outcomes compared with immediate nephroureterectomy in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma. A trial of endoscopic management can be considered in patients with low-grade disease and a normal contralateral kidney. Endoscopy is a viable option when there are imperative indications for nephron sparing in the setting of high-grade disease.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90447/1/end-2E2011-2E0220.pd

Characterising potential bone scan overuse amongst men treated with radical prostatectomy

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149497/1/bju14551.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149497/2/bju14551_am.pd

Modelling the location and consequences of aircraft accidents

Following the completion of two projects funded by the UK EPSRC and two for the Airports Cooperative Research Program, ACRP (2008, 2011), this paper aims to summarise the work on the location and consequence models . The projects overall focused on the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing Runway Safety Areas (RSAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than traditional risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. The innovative elements of this research are two-fold. First, an accident database covering undershoots, overruns, and veer-off crashes close to runways at airports has been compiled and data on incidents has been added. Second, accident frequency models have been developed, for example, identifying the contribution of influencing factors such as variations in meteorological conditions. To allow airport risk to then be calculated entails comparing these cases with those contained in a ‘normal operations database’ where no accidents have been recorded but where the influencing factors are also known. Subsequent models have examined the location of the accidents and their consequences. It is this work that is the focus of this paper. Future work will focus on improving these aspects of the modelling and the consequences of crashes more than 2000 ft. but less than 10 miles from a runway end as well as impacts on third parties

Ibuprofen improves survival and neurologic outcome after resuscitation from cardiac arrest

Post-ischemic inflammatory changes in the central nervous system (CNS) following cardiac arrest and resuscitation are potentially responsible for ultimate survival and much of the neurologic damage, producing greater morbidity and mortality in successfully resuscitated patients. This study was undertaken to assess the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agent, ibuprofen, in a controlled and monitored experimental model of canine cardiac arrest and resuscitation. With the investigator blinded as to the intervention, eight of 21 dogs were randomly assigned to receive ibuprofen as an i.v. bolus (10 mg/kg) and a 6-h i.v. infusion (5 mg/kg per h). The other 13 dogs received an equivalent volume of 0.9% NaCl to serve as controls. No statistically significant differences between the two groups were detected in any pre-arrest variables. All 21 dogs were successfully resuscitated. At 24 h, dogs receiving ibuprofen exhibited 100% survival, while control dogs exhibited only 54% survival (P = 0.03). The majority of deaths for the control group occurred within the first 6 h. Neurologic deficit scores were assigned at 1, 2, 6 and 24 h after resuscitation. A general trend occurred such that dogs treated with ibuprofen improved over time, while the control dogs remained severely impaired. A significant difference in neurologic deficit score was detected at 6 h (P = 0.01). At 24 h the ibuprofen group exhibited minimal neurologic deficit (5.9 +/- 3.2), and the control group exhibited significantly more severe neurologic impairment (52.2 +/- 13.0, P = 0.01). These results suggest that ibuprofen may be helpful in the pharmacologic management of cardiac arrest as a means of increasing survival and decreasing neurologic impairment.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25949/1/0000015.pd