Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory. We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. Prospect theory orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of 'trigger points' and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method

Structuring complexity for tailoring research contributions to sustainable development: a framework

Research aiming at generating effective contributions to sustainable development faces particular complexity related challenges. This article proposes an analytical framework disentangling and structuring complexity issues with which research for sustainable development is confronted. Based on theoretical conceptions from fields like policy sciences and transdisciplinary research as well as on an in-depth analysis of the concept of sustainable development, three meta-perspectives on research for sustainable development are introduced and elaborated. The first perspective focuses on notions of sustainable development, sorting out the problem of unclear or ambiguous interpretations of the general sustainability objectives in specific contexts. The second perspective introduces a broad conception of the policy process representing the way societal change towards sustainable development is brought about. It supports identifying those academic and non-academic actors and stakeholders that are relevant for coming up with effective knowledge contributions. The third perspective identifies different forms of knowledge that are needed to tackle sustainability problems as well as the significance of their mutual interrelations. How the framework perspectives support reflecting on the fundamental complexity issues research for sustainable development is confronted with is illustrated using a case example from natural scientific research in the field of land use. We argue that meeting the complexity inherent in the concept of sustainable development requires joint learning in policy processes, working out shared visions being in line with the core objectives of sustainable development and generating knowledge about empirical, normative and pragmatic aspect

Terrorist choice and the media

Studies in ‘terrorism and the media’ begin with the proposition that terrorists view media attention as important and desirable. These studies usually proceed by examining the characteristics of this media attention, especially volume. To the extent that they touch on terrorist behaviour at all, these studies tend to deal with terrorists’ media strategies which are strongly tied to the terrorists’ desire for media attention and predominantly assume that terrorists simple choose the action that has had the highest media attention accorded to it. This approach is disconnected from the study of underlying terrorist behaviour, especially terrorists’ choice of action, and obscures the most important elements of this behaviour behind the general proposition of the desirability of media attention. By contrast, this thesis recognises that terrorist choice is shaped by the media attention that is accorded to each type of terrorist action. Viewed in this way, terrorism is not simply a generic means by which terrorists obtain media attention. This new approach allows us to account for observed terrorist behaviour that cannot be incorporated into an analytical framework that simply depicts terrorists as choosing the single action that maximises media attention. Among its contributions, the analysis presented in this thesis accounts for: (a) choices of actions that are not expected to yield maximum media attention, (b) combinations of more than one action and (c) situations in which terrorists choose their action with reference to the media attention accorded to the actions of rival groups. The analytical work is supported by significant independent archival research that collected the media coverage accorded to every act of terrorism perpetrated in West-Germany during the 1970s, a period when groups such as the Red Army Faction, 2nd June Movement and the Revolutionary Cells vied for their position in the terrorism context and demonstrated a sophisticated understanding of the media. By measuring the media attention accorded to individual actions, this thesis overcomes certain analytical weaknesses that emerge when broader, more general, data is used. Only when the media attention that has been accorded to each type of action is collected and measured can a study of terrorist choice of action be effectively undertaken

Terrorism, lightning and falling furniture

From time to time, opinion pieces appear in the media that point out that the risk of being harmed by terrorism is very low. This much is true, at least from an actuarial perspective. These opinion pieces are often accompanied by lists of other, usually absurd, ways that a person is more likely to die, including being struck by lightning or crushed by falling furniture. When asked, people do state a likelihood of being harmed by terrorism that is much greater than the actuarial odds. But risk perception is complex and to many people the actuarial odds of being killed by terrorism versus being killed by falling furniture do not adequately reflect the differences in the nature of risks from these two things. A discussion about risk perception and terrorism cannot start and end with the conclusion that people simply overestimate the risk. To do so would be to overlook the nuances of risk perception and decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. An understanding of the complex ways in which risk perceptions are shaped is essential for those who would seek to accurately characterise, compare and regulate risks in the terrorism context

The deferral of attacks: SP/A theory as a model of terrorist choice when losses are inevitable

When a terrorist group’s aspirations far exceed the outcomes that can be expected to result from any of the available attack methods, an outcome below the terrorist group’s aspiration level is inevitable. A primary prediction of SP/A theory when applied to the study of terrorist behaviour is that when losses are inevitable the terrorist group will be risk averse and inclined to defer further action until expected outcomes improve, new attack method innovations are developed or the memory of the event that shaped aspirations has faded sufficiently that the aspiration level can be ‘reset’. This complements existing predictions of loss aversion and risk seeking behaviour over the domain of avoidable losses and provides a starting point for developing explanations for patterns of behaviour that are observed in the terrorism context, including pauses in violence, even during brutality contests, and time-lags between terrorist attacks

Terrorism watch lists, suspect ranking and decision-making biases

The large number of names on terrorism watch lists raises the problem of monitoring. Given the existing resource constraints and other logistical considerations, efficient and accurate ranking of individuals in terms of threat posed is of paramount importance. This process, however, may be impacted by reference points, diminishing sensitivity, loss aversion and other aspects of the human decision-making process that introduce biases. This paper explores the relevance of decision-making processes and biases to the specific task of ranking and monitoring individuals whose names have been placed on a terrorism watch list

Anticipated regret, terrorist behaviour & the presentation of the outcomes of attacks in the mainstream media and in terrorist group publications

Using the same executive function that allows him to plan a terrorist attack, the terrorist can consider the possibility that the outcomes of the attack will be imperfect in some way and that he will regret not having chosen a different type of attack or a different target. He can anticipate regret. In terrorism studies, a lot has been written about the relationship between the volume of media coverage accorded to terrorist attacks and incidences of terrorism. Regret theory, which is a framework for understanding how anticipated feelings of regret can influence the decision-making process, directs our attention beyond the debate over the volume of coverage in a general sense to the presentation of the outcomes of different terrorist actions. Our analysis generates suggestions for the direction that researchers might take in developing our understanding of the mechanisms by which mainstream media reporting and terrorist group publications shape terrorists' choices

On which common ground to build? Transferable knowledge across cases in transdisciplinary sustainability research

To support societal problem solving, transdisciplinary research (TDR) uses knowledge co-production focusing on relevance and validity in a studied case and its particular social–ecological context. In the first instance, the resulting situated knowledge seems to be restricted to these single cases. However, if some of the knowledge generated in TDR could be used in other research projects, this would imply that there is a body of knowledge representing this special type of research. This study used a qualitative approach based on the methodology of grounded theory to empirically examine what knowledge is considered transferable to other cases, if any. 30 leaders of 12 Swiss-based TDR projects in the field of sustainable development were interviewed, representing both academia and practice. The transferable knowledge we found consists of the following: (1) Transdisciplinary principles, (2) transdisciplinary approaches, (3) systematic procedures, (4) product formats, (5) experiential know-how, (6) framings and (7) insights, data and information. The discussion of TDR has predominantly been focusing on transdisciplinary principles and approaches. In order to take knowledge co-production in TDR beyond an unmanageable field of case studies, more efforts in developing and critically discussing transferable knowledge of the other classes are needed, foremost systematic procedures, product formats and framings

Conflictos ecológicos distributivos: suelos y ciclos biogeoquímicos

El presente capítulo pretende despertar el interés en el aprendizaje de algunos conceptos desarrollados en la cátedra de Biogeografía, reconociendo aportes en el análisis de las transformaciones territoriales en su dimensión ambiental. Centra la mirada particularmente en las características de los suelos y los ciclos biogeoquímicos considerando sus alteraciones en el contexto de las cadenas globales de mercantilización e importancia en la construcción de respuestas alternativas al modelo mercantilizador de la naturaleza. Al mismo tiempo, con la clara intención de ampliar la mirada hacia la apropiación diferencial de los sistemas naturales, focaliza en la desigual distribución de los beneficios y perjuicios del proceso de transformación de la naturaleza, origen de los conflictos socioambientales entendidos en términos ecológicos distributivos.Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educació

Impacto y potencial de los Recursos Educativos Abiertos (REA) en los procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje en modalidad virtual en las carreras de grado de Ciencias Económicas en la Universidad Nacional de la Matanza 2014-2015

En la presente comunicación se presentará un avance de los resultados parciales alcanzados hasta el momento en el proyecto de investigación:“Impacto y potencial de los recursos educativos abiertos (REA) en los procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje en modalidad virtual en las carreras de grado de Ciencias Económicas en la Universidad Nacional de la Matanza 2014-2015”,en torno al impacto, potencial y factibilidad de condiciones institucionales de uso, accesibilidad y disponibilidad que presentan los recursos educativos abiertos (REA) en la creación, difusión, modificación y reutilización de componentes (módulos teóricos, artículos de investigación, actividades prácticas, exámenes, cuestionarios, videos, etc.) que participan en los procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje en modalidad virtual en las carreras de grado de Contador Público, Licenciatura en Administración, Licenciatura en Comercio Internacional y Licenciatura en Economía del Departamento deCiencias Económicas de la UNLaM. Para ello se presentarán las características generales que presenta la enseñanza virtual mediante la plataforma MIeL (Materias Interactivas en Línea) desarrollada por la UNLaM,y en particular se describirán las estrategiasdidácticas y prácticas educativas implementadas en la Cátedra de Introducción al Conocimiento Científicoen la modalidad semi-presencial en el 1er año de las carreras mencionadas. Por último,se delinearán conclusiones preliminares en cuanto a la potencialidad y factibilidad de uso de los REA.Dirección de Educación a Distancia, Innovación en el aula y TIC (EAD