The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution. Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40 at 12 km to ∼ −3 at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales. © 2021, The Author(s)

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales

Relationship between MODIS based Aerosol Optical Depth and PM10 over Croatia

This study analyzes the relationship between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) obtained from Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and ground-based PM10 mass concentration distribution over a period of 5 years (2008–2012), and investigates the applicability of satellite AOD data for ground PM10 mapping for the Croatian territory. Many studies have shown that satellite AOD data are correlated to ground-based PM mass concentration. However, the relationship between AOD and PM is not explicit and there are unknowns that cause uncertainties in this relationship. The relationship between MODIS AOD and ground-based PM10 has been studied on the basis of a large data set where daily averaged PM10 data from the 12 air quality stations across Croatia over the 5 year period are correlated with AODs retrieved from MODIS Terra and Aqua. A database was developed to associate coincident MODIS AOD (independent) and PM10 data (dependent variable). Additional tested independent variables (predictors, estimators) included season, cloud fraction, and meteorological parameters — including temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, as well as planetary boundary layer height — using meteorological data from WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model. It has been found that 1) a univariate linear regression model fails at explaining the data variability well which suggests nonlinearity of the AOD-PM10 relationship, and 2) explanation of data variability can be improved with multivariate linear modeling and a neural network approach, using additional independent variables