The influence of groundwater abstraction on interpreting climate controls and extreme recharge events from well hydrographs in semi-arid South Africa

There is a scarcity of long-term groundwater hydrographs from sub-Saharan Africa to investigate groundwater sustainability, processes and controls. This paper presents an analysis of 21 hydrographs from semi-arid South Africa. Hydrographs from 1980 to 2000 were converted to standardised groundwater level indices and rationalised into four types (C1–C4) using hierarchical cluster analysis. Mean hydrographs for each type were cross-correlated with standardised precipitation and streamflow indices. Relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were also investigated. The four hydrograph types show a transition of autocorrelation over increasing timescales and increasingly subdued responses to rainfall. Type C1 strongly relates to rainfall, responding in most years, whereas C4 notably responds to only a single extreme event in 2000 and has limited relationship with rainfall. Types C2, C3 and C4 have stronger statistical relationships with standardised streamflow than standardised rainfall. C3 and C4 changes are significantly (p < 0.05) correlated to the mean wet season ENSO anomaly, indicating a tendency for substantial or minimal recharge to occur during extreme negative and positive ENSO years, respectively. The range of different hydrograph types, sometimes within only a few kilometres of each other, appears to be a result of abstraction interference and cannot be confidently attributed to variations in climate or hydrogeological setting. It is possible that high groundwater abstraction near C3/C4 sites masks frequent small-scale recharge events observed at C1/C2 sites, resulting in extreme events associated with negative ENSO years being more visible in the time series

The El Nino event of 2015-2016: climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa

The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the Equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015–2016, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015–2016 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north–south of ∼12∘ S, a characteristic pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index – SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing, and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables, e.g. precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ∼10 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean zonal mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage, as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events

Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability—and their sensitivity to climatic variability—are poorly constrained. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation–recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation–recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the ‘high certainty’ consensus regarding decreasing water resources in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation–recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies

The GRADE System for Rating Clinical Guidelines

Brian Kavanagh critiques the GRADE system of grading guidelines, arguing that even though it has evolved through the Evidence-Based Medicine movement, there is no evidence that GRADE itself is reliable

Relationship between cyclooxygenase 8473T>C polymorphism and the risk of lung cancer: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) plays an important role in the development of lung cancer. DNA sequence variations in the COX-2 gene may lead to altered COX-2 production and/or activity, and so they cause inter-individual differences in the susceptibility to lung cancer. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the association between the 8473T>C polymorphism in the 3'-untranslated region of the COX-2 gene and the risk of lung cancer in a Korean population. METHODS: The COX-2 genotypes were determined using PCR-based primer-introduced restriction analysis in 582 lung cancer patients and in 582 healthy controls that were frequency-matched for age and gender. RESULTS: The distribution of the COX-2 8473T>C genotypes was not significantly different between the overall lung cancer cases and the controls. However, when the cases were categorized by the tumor histology, the combined 8473 TC + CC genotype was associated with a significantly decreased risk of adenocarcinoma as compared with the 8473 TT genotype (adjusted OR = 0.64; 95% CI = 0.46–0.90, P = 0.01). On the stratification analysis, the protective effect of the combined 8473 TC + CC genotype against adenocarcinoma was statistically significant in the males, older individuals and ever-smokers (adjusted OR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.39–0.91, P = 0.02; adjusted OR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.33–0.93, P = 0.03; and adjusted OR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.37–0.87, P = 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the COX-2 8473T>C polymorphism could be used as a marker for the genetic susceptibility to adenocarcinoma of the lung

Genome-Wide Screening for Genetic Alterations in Esophageal Cancer by aCGH Identifies 11q13 Amplification Oncogenes Associated with Nodal Metastasis

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is highly prevalent in China and other Asian countries, as a major cause of cancer-related mortality. ESCC displays complex chromosomal abnormalities, including multiple structural and numerical aberrations. Chromosomal abnormalities, such as recurrent amplifications and homozygous deletions, directly contribute to tumorigenesis through altering the expression of key oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes.To understand the role of genetic alterations in ESCC pathogenesis and identify critical amplification/deletion targets, we performed genome-wide 1-Mb array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) analysis for 10 commonly used ESCC cell lines. Recurrent chromosomal gains were frequently detected on 3q26-27, 5p15-14, 8p12, 8p22-24, 11q13, 13q21-31, 18p11 and 20q11-13, with frequent losses also found on 8p23-22, 11q22, 14q32 and 18q11-23. Gain of 11q13.3-13.4 was the most frequent alteration in ESCC. Within this region, CCND1 oncogene was identified with high level of amplification and overexpression in ESCC, while FGF19 and SHANK2 was also remarkably over-expressed. Moreover, a high concordance (91.5%) of gene amplification and protein overexpression of CCND1 was observed in primary ESCC tumors. CCND1 amplification/overexpression was also significantly correlated with the lymph node metastasis of ESCC.These findings suggest that genomic gain of 11q13 is the major mechanism contributing to the amplification. Novel oncogenes identified within the 11q13 amplicon including FGF19 and SHANK2 may play important roles in ESCC tumorigenesis