Potential Direct and Indirect Effects of Global Cellulosic Biofuel Production on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Future Land-use Chage

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2240The production of cellulosic biofuels may have a large influence on future land emissions of greenhouse gases. These effects will vary across space and time depending on land-use policies, trade, and variations in environmental conditions. We link an economic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model to explore how projections of cellulosic biofuels production may influence future land emissions of carbon and nitrous oxide. Tropical regions, particularly Africa and Latin America, are projected to become major producers of biofuels. Most biofuels production is projected to occur on lands that would otherwise be used to produce crops, livestock and timber. Biofuels production leads to displacement and a redistribution of global food and timber production along with a reduction in the trade of food products. Overall, biofuels production and the displacement of other managed lands increase emissions of greenhouse gases primarily as a result of carbon emissions from deforestation and nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer applications to maximize biofuel crop production in tropical regions. With optimal application of nitrogen fertilizers, cellulosic biofuels production may enhance carbon sequestration in soils of some regions. As a result, the relative importance of carbon emissions versus nitrous oxide emissions varies among regions. Reductions in carbon sequestration by natural ecosystems caused by the expansion of biofuels have minor effects on the global greenhouse gas budget and are more than compensated by concurrent biofuel-induced reductions in nitrous oxide emissions from natural ecosystems. Land policies that avoid deforestation and fertilizer applications, particularly in tropical regions, will have the largest impact on minimizing land emissions of greenhouse gas from cellulosic biofuels production.This research was supported in part by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation to the MBL, Department of Energy, Office of Science (BER) grants DE-FG02-94ER61937, DE-FG02- 93ER61677, DE-FG02-08ER64648, EPA grant XA-83240101, NSF grant BCS-0410344, and the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Variação do número e da distribuição dos espinhos nos frutos da Mamoneira (Ricinus communis, L)

1) In a former paper (4), the segregations of spiny versus spineless fruits was described as caused by one pair of mendelian factors, but in view of the possible pratical importance of spineless fruits a more detailed study was thought desirable. We may distinguish three main types of the distribuition of spine among the different varieties in our collections: Spineles fruits (inerms), found in a number of varieties. "Bald" fruits (a type called "careca" or bald owing to the irregular distribuition of the spines, which were always absent in some parts of the fruits while otrer patches might contain spines. Spiny fruits which may be classified into two or more groups, according to the number of regularly distributed spines. 2) The cross (spineless fruits) x (fruits with regularly distributed spines) HARLAND (7), PEAT (9) e FERNANDES (3) observed a 1:2:1 segregations in F2 while GURGEL (4) and DOMINGO (2) find it difficult to distinguish the homozygous and heterozygous spiny types without counting the number of spines. Such counts and the results of a detailed statistical analysis are now given. They show that the results of the 1:2:1 segregations are somewhat modified by both phenotypic modifications of the number of spines. The latter are caused by modifier genes introduced by both parents. 3) The cross between plants with a regular and an irregular distribuition of spines showed that the latter condition is due to the presence of two recessive complementary factors. Thus we have in F2, 15 regular to 1 irregular or partially "bald", and in back-crosses segregations in acordance with the ratio 3:1. 4) The cross spineless x "Careca", gave, as might be expected a trifatorial segregation in accordance with the following formula. "Inermes" "Careca" P : ss CalCal Ca2Ca2 x SS ca1ca1 ca2ca2 Fl : Ss CalCal Ca2Ca2 (with regularly distributed spines) F2 : 45 S- Cal- Ca2- (spines regularly distributed). 3 S- calca1 ca2ca2 ,"Careca) 16 ss ("inermes").1) O caráter presença de espinhos nos frutos da mamoneira é determinado por um par de fatores dominantes SS, sendo a forma recessiva ss, inerme. A interação alélica nao é bem intermediária, havendo uma predominância do fator S. Êste resultado foi anteriormente constatado por HARLAND (7), PEAT (8), DOMINGO (2), GURGEL (4) e FERNANDES (3). 2) A constatação da segregação 1 SS : 2 Ss : 1 ss foi feita após extensivas contagens de espinhos, tanto na forma paternal, como também no Fl, F2 e "back-cross". Por essas contagens foi verificado que existem variedades com números diferentes de espinhos, podendo-se distinguir dois tipos: variedades que têm muitos espinhos, com uma média aproximada de 170 espinhos por fruto e variedades que têm um número médio de espinhos, com uma média aproximada de 113 espinhos por fruto. 3) Embora a segregação dos fatores S e s seja monofatorial, todavia foi constadada por uma análise estatística detalhada, a presença de gens modificadores agindo na geração F2, introduzidos pelos tipos paternais. Assim, o segregante SS no F2, tem mais espinhos do que o pai homozigoto da mesma constituição. 4) Foram encontrados dois novos gens cal e ca2, com interação não alélica do tipo de polimeria complementar duplo-recessiva, dando no F2 uma segregação de 15 com espinhos uniformes : 1 com espinho careca, no "back-cross" uma segregação de 3 com espinhos uniformes : 1 com espinho careca. Estes gens determinaram, nos frutos com espinhos, a formação de zonas sem espinhos, ou como denominamos, "carecas". Estes novos fatores foram encontrados numa única variedade, de n.° 51, conhecida por laciniada, em virtude da for- ma especial de suas fôlhas. Esta variedade é de côr verde, apresenta cera na haste e possui numerosos cachos, porém pequenos. Ê tida como planta ornamental e foi originalmente importada de Erfurt, Alemanha. 5) Mesmo nas variedades inermes foi constatada a presença dos gens Cal e Ca2, para distribuição uniforme de espinhos, embora nas ditas variedades não se possa identificar a sua presença, em virtude do gen s ser epistático recessivo sobre Cal e Ca2. 6) Uma vez que os fatores S e CalCa2 sao independentes, isto é, possivelmente situados em cromosômios diferentes, fazendo-se o cruzamento de variedades com espinho careca x variedades sem espinho, obtem-se o PI com número de espinhos intermediário e distribuição uniforme. No F2 obtém-se a segregação de 45 com espinho uniforme : 3 com espinho careca : 16 sem espinho e no "back-cross" a segregação de 3 com espinho uniforme : 1 com espinho careca : 4 sem espinho

Análise estatística da distribuição de Poisson

The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur

Ensemble perturbation smoother for optimizing tidal boundary conditions by assimilation of High-Frequency radar surface currents - application to the German Bight

High-Frequency (HF) radars measure the ocean surface currents at various spatial and temporal scales. These include tidal currents, wind-driven circulation, density-driven circulation and Stokes drift. Sequential assimilation methods updating the model state have been proven successful to correct the density-driven currents by assimilation of observations such as sea surface height, sea surface temperature and in-situ profiles. However, the situation is different for tides in coastal models since these are not generated within the domain, but are rather propagated inside the domain through the boundary conditions. For improving the modeled tidal variability it is therefore not sufficient to update the model state via data assimilation without updating the boundary conditions. The optimization of boundary conditions to match observations inside the domain is traditionally achieved through variational assimilation methods. In this work we present an ensemble smoother to improve the tidal boundary values so that the model represents more closely the observed currents. To create an ensemble of dynamically realistic boundary conditions, a cost function is formulated which is directly related to the probability of each boundary condition perturbation. This cost function ensures that the boundary condition perturbations are spatially smooth and that the structure of the perturbations satisfies approximately the harmonic linearized shallow water equations. Based on those perturbations an ensemble simulation is carried out using the full three-dimensional General Estuarine Ocean Model (GETM). Optimized boundary values are obtained by assimilating all observations using the co-variances of the ensemble simulation

Riqueza em óleo nas sementes, amêndoas e cascas das bagas de mamona

This paper is a joined publication of the Depts. of Genetics and of Technology, of the E. S. A. "Luiz de Queiroz", Universidade de São Paulo, and deals with the variation of the percentage oil content in the whole seeds, the embryos and the seed-coat of 28 varieties of castor-beans (Ricinus communis, L.). Primarily, the authors, as a justification of this paper, make reference to the applications which castor-oil has in industry, medicine, etc. In accordance with the weight of 100 seeds, the varieties of castor-beans were classified into 3 classes : small seeds (100 seeds less than 30 g), medium seeds (100 seeds between 30 g and 60) and large seeds (100 seeds more than 60 g). The percentage of oil in the seed, embryo and seed-coat, the dimensions of the seeds and the weight of 100 seeds are given for every variety in table 1. In order to obtain an estimate of the variability for the methods of determination of the oil percentage, in the 3 differents parts of the seeds and also in the 3 groups of seeds, the coefficient of variability was calculate (table 2). It is showed that the variation in the seed and embryo is low and that in the seed-coat is very high. The analysis of variance, with regard to the difference among the 3 types of seeds (small, medium and large), among the 3 parts of the seed (whole seed, embryo and seed-coat) and residual error, is given in table 3. Only, the oil content of whole seeds among types of seeds was significant at the 5% level. The t test among the correspondent means is not significant for the difference between medium and large seeds is significant between both these types (medium and large) and small seeds. The fiducial limits in relation to the mean of the oil percentage in the 3 differents types of seed, show that there is one variety (n. 1013-2), which has a percentage of oil, in the medium type of seed, significantly at the 5% level (table 4), higher than the general mean. Since the distribution of the percentage of oil in the seedcoat is discontinuous, 5 groups were established (table 5). All the differences between groups are significant (table 6). For practical purposes, when we have to remove the seed coat, one should eliminate those varieties which loose at least 3% of oil by this procedure. There is a significant linear correlation at 5% level between the percentage of oil in the seed and in the embryo, of the smali and medium type of seeds (table 7), and also, when taking the 3 types together (lower part of table 7), one finds that the same is true. Also, the correlation between the percentages of oil in the embryo and in the seed-coat of the 3 types together is significant at 5% level. According to the results obtained in relation to the percentage in 28 varieties studied, it can be recommended, for breeding purposes, to work only with those varieties which belong to the medium and the large types of seeds

Effects of wet CO oxidation on the operation of engines and power generators

A simplified method is used to determine the optimum water content in the flue gases of charcoal gasifiers to be utilized as alternative fuels in the operation of engines and gas turbines for power generation. Computational models of plug flow reactors and well stirred reactors are employed to simulate the reaction and post-flame zones, adopting different chemical mechanisms. In the simulations reactants enter the reactors at 1000 K, 1 atm and equivalence ratio 0.25. It was observed that mixtures about 3% to 4% in volume of water vapor allow to obtain optimal operation characteristics, including high blowout limit, low ignition delay, maximum reaction zone temperature, high CO2 prodution and low thermal NO formation. It was observed that increasing water contents reduce significantly ignition times up to 3% in volume, while blowout mass flow rates increase continuously up to 6 % in volume, the maximum value considered. Formation of NO decreases continuously with humidity after the flame zone, while there are peaks of NO formation within the flame zone below 1% in volume. Higher water vapor content decreases the final temperatures below 1700 K, leading to a lower thermal efficiency. The method can be used to estimate optimum operational conditions with other input parameters

Análise de poliembrionia em Citrus, máxime em toranjas

1 - This paper is a joined publication of the Dept. of Genetics, Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", University of São Paulo, and Secção de Citricultura e Frutas Tropicais, Instituto Agronômico, de Campinas, and deal with the number of seed per fruit and the polyembryony in Citrus, with special reference to the pummelos (C. grandis). 2 - For C. pectinifera, hibrid limon x acid lime, C. histrix and Citrus sp. the mean of seeds per fruit is 5,8 - 17,3 - 30,2 -94,6; for 14 pummelos the average was 100 and the range of variation 11 to 185 seeds per fruit. For the four above mentioned Citrus the cotyledons were classified into 3 types: big (near 8 mm.), medium (near 6 mm) and small (near 4 mm) and for the pummelos there was only one size of cotyledons, about 10 mm (table 1). 3 - The polyembryony was determined by two processes: a) counting of the embryos in the mature seed; b) counting after germination in flats or seed-beds. The rasults obtained are in table 2; the process a gave larger results than process b.The following pummelos are monoembryonics: melancia, inerme, Kaune Paune, sunshine, vermelha, Singapura, periforme, Zamboa, doce, Indochina, Lau-Tau, Shantenyau and Siamesa. Sometime it was found a branching of the main stem that gave a impression of polyembryonic seeds. 4 - It was shown by the x2 test that the distribution of embryo numbers fits the Poisson's series (table 2) in both processes. 5 - It is discussed in table 2 the variability of polyembryony for the following cases: a) between plants, within years. The teste for the differences of mean of polyembryony between 3 plants of C. pectinifera is statistically significant in 1948 and 1949; b) between yields of the same plant, within year. The same case of C. pectinifera may be used for this purpose; c) between process, within year. It is shown in table 3, for C. pectinifera and the hibrid "limon x acid lime" that there is a statistically signicicant between both process above mentioned

Conhecendo espécies de plantas da Amazônia: mogno (Swietenia macrophylla King- Meliaceae).

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Atividade alelopática de extratos brutos de três espécies de Copaifera (Leguminosae-Caesalpinioideae).

Nos últimos anos, atenção especial foi dada aos compostos químicos envolvidos na interação entre plantas, especialmente quando se sabe das possibilidades do seu uso em estratégia de manejo de plantas daninhas. A Amazônia, pela sua megabiodiversidade e abundância de espécies vegetais, pode oferecer excelente oportunidade para a descoberta de inovadoras moléculas químicas com potencial de uso na atividade agrícola. Dessa forma, neste trabalho analisou-se, comparativamente, a atividade potencialmente alelopática de três espécies de Copaifera, caracterizando-se as variações na intensidade dos efeitos alelopáticos em função da espécie doadora, da fração da planta e da polaridade dos constituintes químicos. Extratos hexânico e etanólico, preparados a 1,0% a partir de folhas, galhos e cascas de Copaifera duckei, C. martii e C. reticulata, foram testados sobre a germinação de sementes e o desenvolvimento da raiz das plantas daninhas malícia (Mimosa pudica) e mata-pasto (Senna obtusifolia). Observaram-se variações nas intensidades dos efeitos em função das variáveis estudadas. O extrato etanólico de folhas e o de galhos de C. martii e C. reticulata apresentaram alto potencial para inibir a germinação de sementes, sobretudo da espécie malícia. A espécie C. duckei evidenciou baixo potencial alelopático inibitório na germinação das duas espécies receptoras. Cascas, folhas e galhos de C. duckei apresentaram potencial inibitório mais expressivo sobre o desenvolvimento da raiz, com destaque para as folhas. Compostos químicos apolares e polares estão envolvidos na atividade alelopática da espécie C. duckei, com ênfase maior para os compostos apolares. Diferentemente, para C. martii e C. reticulata, compostos polares estão envolvidos, preferencialmente, na atividade inibitória evidenciada por essas espécies, notadamente aqueles localizados nas folhas e cascas. Comparativamente, a tendência observada foi de que a espécie receptora malícia demonstrou maior sensibilidade aos efeitos alelopáticos dos extratos, especialmente no bioensaio de germinação

Estimates of genetic parameters for physic nut traits based in the germplasm two years evaluation.

Apesar do crescente interesse no plantio do pinhão manso, os esforços de melhoramento ainda estão em seu início. Nesse contexto, um importante recurso recentemente estabelecido visando a futuros trabalhos de melhoramento foi a montagem de um banco de germoplasma com cerca de 200 acessos. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar parâmetros genéticos, coeficientes de repetibilidade e correlações genéticas entre sete características, mensuradas em 110 acessos (famílias de meios-irmãos) desse banco de germoplasma em diferentes estágios de desenvolvimento. Os resultados demonstram que valores elevados de variância genética aditiva foram encontrados apenas para produção e altura e a existência de baixa variação ambiental (tanto de natureza temporária quanto permanente) entre parcelas dentro de blocos. Dado os altos valores de repetibilidade encontrados para todas as características, em média três mensurações são necessárias para se predizer, acurada e eficientemente, o real valor de melhoramento de um indivíduo. Baseado nos resultados de correlações genéticas, esforços de melhoramento devem inicialmente ser usados para se identificar árvores de elevado diâmetro de caule, elevado número de ramos e volume de copa, de modo a aumentar as chances de se encontrar árvores excepcionalmente produtivas