Measurement error in a multi-level analysis of air pollution and health: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal models are increasingly being used to predict exposure to ambient outdoor air pollution at high spatial resolution for inclusion in epidemiological analyses of air pollution and health. Measurement error in these predictions can nevertheless have impacts on health effect estimation. Using statistical simulation we aim to investigate the effects of such error within a multi-level model analysis of long and short-term pollutant exposure and health. METHODS: Our study was based on a theoretical sample of 1000 geographical sites within Greater London. Simulations of "true" site-specific daily mean and 5-year mean NO2 and PM10 concentrations, incorporating both temporal variation and spatial covariance, were informed by an analysis of daily measurements over the period 2009-2013 from fixed location urban background monitors in the London area. In the context of a multi-level single-pollutant Poisson regression analysis of mortality, we investigated scenarios in which we specified: the Pearson correlation between modelled and "true" data and the ratio of their variances (model versus "true") and assumed these parameters were the same spatially and temporally. RESULTS: In general, health effect estimates associated with both long and short-term exposure were biased towards the null with the level of bias increasing to over 60% as the correlation coefficient decreased from 0.9 to 0.5 and the variance ratio increased from 0.5 to 2. However, for a combination of high correlation (0.9) and small variance ratio (0.5) non-trivial bias (> 25%) away from the null was observed. Standard errors of health effect estimates, though unaffected by changes in the correlation coefficient, appeared to be attenuated for variance ratios > 1 but inflated for variance ratios < 1. CONCLUSION: While our findings suggest that in most cases modelling errors result in attenuation of the effect estimate towards the null, in some situations a non-trivial bias away from the null may occur. The magnitude and direction of bias appears to depend on the relationship between modelled and "true" data in terms of their correlation and the ratio of their variances. These factors should be taken into account when assessing the validity of modelled air pollution predictions for use in complex epidemiological models

Signature of effective mass in crackling noise asymmetry

Crackling noise is a common feature in many dynamic systems [1-9], the most familiar instance of which is the sound made by a sheet of paper when crumpled into a ball. Although seemingly random, this noise contains fundamental information about the properties of the system in which it occurs. One potential source of such information lies in the asymmetric shape of noise pulses emitted by a diverse range of noisy systems [8-12], but the cause of this asymmetry has lacked explanation [1]. Here we show that the leftward asymmetry observed in the Barkhausen effect [2] - the noise generated by the jerky motion of domain walls as they interact with impurities in a soft magnet - is a direct consequence of a magnetic domain wall's negative effective mass. As well as providing a means of determining domain wall effective mass from a magnet's Barkhausen noise our work suggests an inertial explanation for the origin of avalanche asymmetries in crackling noise phenomena more generally.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Nature Physic

Electric-field control of spin waves at room temperature in multiferroic BiFeO3

To face the challenges lying beyond current CMOS-based technology, new paradigms for information processing are required. Magnonics proposes to use spin waves to carry and process information, in analogy with photonics that relies on light waves, with several advantageous features such as potential operation in the THz range and excellent coupling to spintronics. Several magnonic analog and digital logic devices have been proposed, and some demonstrated. Just as for spintronics, a key issue for magnonics is the large power required to control/write information (conventionally achieved through magnetic fields applied by strip lines, or by spin transfer from large spin-polarized currents). Here we show that in BiFeO3, a room-temperature magnetoelectric material, the spin wave frequency (>600 GHz) can be tuned electrically by over 30%, in a non-volatile way and with virtually no power dissipation. Theoretical calculations indicate that this effect originates from a linear magnetoelectric effect related to spin-orbit coupling induced by the applied electric field. We argue that these properties make BiFeO3 a promising medium for spin wave generation, conversion and control in future magnonics architectures.Comment: 3 figure

Measurement of the antineutrino neutral-current elastic differential cross section

arXiv:1309.7257v1 [hep-ex

A closer look at the health of cats showing urinary house-soiling (periuria): a case-control study

Objective The aim was to perform a case-control medical evaluation of cats from multi-cat households presenting with inappropriate latrining and spraying behavior. Methods Owners of 18 ‘spraying’ and 23 ‘latrining’ cats with normal control subjects available from the same households were recruited for a case-control study. Otherwise overtly healthy dyads (each dyad consisting of a case cat and a control cat) were brought together to the veterinary hospital of the University of São Paulo for a medical work-up (ie, physical examination, complete blood count, biochemical profile, urinalysis and urine culture, abdominal ultrasound of the urinary system and in females, where possible, cystoscopy). Results Medical problems were identified with similar frequency in the ‘sprayers’ (38.9%), ‘latriners’ (39.1%) and controls of the latrining group (26.1%), but not the controls of the spraying group (5.5%). The difference between ‘cases’ and ‘controls’ from spraying households was significant. Common potential health-related changes include renal insufficiency, cystitis and bladder lithiasis. Renal calculi, higher creatinine levels (within normal reference interval) and ‘glomerulations’ (detected during cystoscopy) were also found in the remaining sprayers and latriners that were considered clinically healthy. Post-cystoscopy, a new form of periuria occurred in two cats (one sprayer and one latriner). Conclusions and relevance These results indicate that spraying or latrining behavior in the home, as well as living with a cat that is not using the litter box as a latrine, are all associated with a higher level of urinary tract abnormalities, but not living with a cat that is spraying. The findings also suggest that both forms of periuria might be associated with interstitial cystitis. We therefore conclude that all cats with periuria need to be carefully evaluated medically and that treatment of latrine-related problems should consider all cats in the house, whereas spraying may be more focused on the individual displaying the problem

The Pandora multi-algorithm approach to automated pattern recognition of cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector.

The development and operation of liquid-argon time-projection chambers for neutrino physics has created a need for new approaches to pattern recognition in order to fully exploit the imaging capabilities offered by this technology. Whereas the human brain can excel at identifying features in the recorded events, it is a significant challenge to develop an automated, algorithmic solution. The Pandora Software Development Kit provides functionality to aid the design and implementation of pattern-recognition algorithms. It promotes the use of a multi-algorithm approach to pattern recognition, in which individual algorithms each address a specific task in a particular topology. Many tens of algorithms then carefully build up a picture of the event and, together, provide a robust automated pattern-recognition solution. This paper describes details of the chain of over one hundred Pandora algorithms and tools used to reconstruct cosmic-ray muon and neutrino events in the MicroBooNE detector. Metrics that assess the current pattern-recognition performance are presented for simulated MicroBooNE events, using a selection of final-state event topologies

Improved Search for νˉμ→νˉe\bar ν_μ\rightarrow \bar ν_e Oscillations in the MiniBooNE Experiment

Submitted to PRL. Further information provided in arXiv:1207.4809Submitted to PRL. Further information provided in arXiv:1207.4809The MiniBooNE experiment at Fermilab reports results from an analysis of $\bar \nu_e$ appearance data from $11.27 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target in antineutrino mode, an increase of approximately a factor of two over the previously reported results. An event excess of $78.4 \pm 28.5$ events ($2.8 \sigma$) is observed in the energy range $200<E_\nu^{QE}<1250$ MeV. If interpreted in a two-neutrino oscillation model, $\bar{\nu}_{\mu}\rightarrow\bar{\nu}_e$, the best oscillation fit to the excess has a probability of 66% while the background-only fit has a $\chi^2$-probability of 0.5% relative to the best fit. The data are consistent with antineutrino oscillations in the $0.01 < \Delta m^2 < 1.0$ eV$^2$ range and have some overlap with the evidence for antineutrino oscillations from the Liquid Scintillator Neutrino Detector (LSND). All of the major backgrounds are constrained by in-situ event measurements so non-oscillation explanations would need to invoke new anomalous background processes. The neutrino mode running also shows an excess at low energy of $162.0 \pm 47.8$ events ($3.4 \sigma$) but the energy distribution of the excess is marginally compatible with a simple two neutrino oscillation formalism. Expanded models with several sterile neutrinos can reduce the incompatibility by allowing for CP violating effects between neutrino and antineutrino oscillations

Dark Matter Search in a Proton Beam Dump with MiniBooNE

6 pages, 7 figures6 pages, 7 figure

A new investigation of electron neutrino appearance oscillations with improved sensitivity in the MiniBooNE+ experiment

Submitted as whitepaper for Snowmass'13 proceedings - 8 pages, 3 figures; version 2: Minor change to title and author listSubmitted as whitepaper for Snowmass'13 proceedings - 8 pages, 3 figures; version 2: Minor change to title and author listWe propose the addition of scintillator to the existing MiniBooNE detector to allow a test of the neutral-current/charged-current (NC/CC) nature of the MiniBooNE low-energy excess. Scintillator will enable the reconstruction of 2.2 MeV $\gamma$s from neutron-capture on protons following neutrino interactions. Low-energy CC interactions where the oscillation excess is observed should have associated neutrons with less than a 10% probability. This is in contrast to the NC backgrounds that should have associated neutrons in approximately 50% of events. We will measure these neutron fractions with $\nu_\mu$ CC and NC events to eliminate that systematic uncertainty. This neutron-fraction measurement requires $6.5\times10^{20}$ protons on target delivered to MiniBooNE with scintillator added in order to increase the significance of an oscillation excess to over $5\sigma$. This new phase of MiniBooNE will also enable additional important studies such as the spin structure of nucleon ($\Delta s$) via NC elastic scattering, a low-energy measurement of the neutrino flux via \numu ^{12}C \rightarrow \mu^{-} ^{12}N_\textrm{g.s.} scattering, and a test of the quasielastic assumption in neutrino energy reconstruction. These topics will yield important, highly-cited results over the next 5 years for a modest cost, and will help to train Ph.D. students and postdocs. This enterprise offers complementary information to that from the upcoming liquid Argon based MicroBooNE experiment. In addition, MicroBooNE is scheduled to receive neutrinos in early 2014, and there is minimal additional cost to also deliver beam to MiniBooNE

Using L/E Oscillation Probability Distributions

This paper explores the use of $L/E$ oscillation probability distributions to compare experimental measurements and to evaluate oscillation models. In this case, $L$ is the distance of neutrino travel and $E$ is a measure of the interacting neutrino's energy. While comparisons using allowed and excluded regions for oscillation model parameters are likely the only rigorous method for these comparisons, the $L/E$ distributions are shown to give qualitative information on the agreement of an experiment's data with a simple two-neutrino oscillation model. In more detail, this paper also outlines how the $L/E$ distributions can be best calculated and used for model comparisons. Specifically, the paper presents the $L/E$ data points for the final MiniBooNE data samples and, in the Appendix, explains and corrects the mistaken analysis published by the ICARUS collaboration