Future global warming from atmospheric trace gases

Human activity this century has increased the concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, which in turn has elevated global surface temperatures by blocking the escape of thermal infrared radiation. Natural climate variations are masking this temperature increase, but further additions of trace gases during the next 65 years could double or even quadruple the present effects, causing the global average temperature to rise by at least 1 °C and possibly by more than 5 °C. If the rise continues into the twenty-second century, the global average temperature may reach higher values than have occurred in the past 10 million years. © 1986 Nature Publishing Group

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089

In Retrospect: Half a century of robust climate models

A classic paper in 1967 reported key advances in climate modelling that enabled a convincing quantification of the global-warming effects of carbon dioxide — laying foundations for the models that underpin climate research today

Detecting CO2-induced climatic change

Although it is widely believed that increasing atmospheric CO2 levels will cause noticeable global warming, the effects are not yet detectable, possibly because of the 'noise' of natural climatic variability. An examination of the spatial and seasonal distribution of signal-to-noise ratio shows that the highest values occur in summer and annual mean surface temperatures averaged over the Northern Hemisphere or over mid-latitudes. The spatial and seasonal characteristics of the early twentieth century warming were similar to those expected from increasing CO2 based on an equilibrium response model. This similarity may hinder the early detection of CO2 effects on climate