Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation

This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach--cash flow simulation. Specifically, we compare the risk-based capital (RBC) system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 1994, the FAST (Financial Analysis and Surveillance Tracking) audit ratio system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio-based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. We find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, we find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.Insurance industry

Robust Tests for Treatment Effects Based on Censored Recurrent Event Data Observed over Multiple Periods

We derive semiparametric methods for estimating and testing treatment effects when censored recurrent event data are available over multiple periods. These methods are based on estimating functions motivated by a working “mixed-Poisson” assumption under which conditioning can eliminate subject-specific random effects. Robust pseudoscore test statistics are obtained via “sandwich” variance estimation. The relative efficiency of conditional versus marginal analyses is assessed analytically under a mixed time-homogeneous Poisson model. The robustness and empirical power of the semiparametric approach are assessed through simulation. Adaptations to handle recurrent events arising in crossover trials are described and these methods are applied to data from a two-period crossover trial of patients with bronchial asthma.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65405/1/j.1541-0420.2005.00357.x.pd

Role of Hemin and Growth Media on the Autofluorescence of Streptococcus mutans

poster abstractAbstract Carious lesions fluoresce under blue light. The primary cariogenic bacterium Streptococcus mutans has been shown previously to fluoresce within blue light wavelengths. In this study we wanted to determine the role of hemin and various growth media on the fluorescing properties of S. mutans under planktonic (total biomass) and biofilm (biofilm mass) growth conditions. UA159 was grown for 24 h at 37ºC in Tryptic Soy Broth (TSB), Brain Heart Infusion (BHI) and Todd Hewitt broth (THB) with and without hemin in 5% CO2. Biofilm was grown for 24 h in a 96 well sterile microplate in the above described media with and without hemin. A stock solution of Protoporphyrin –IX was prepared and diluted to concentrations ranging from 1.6-3.1×10-4 g/ml. A SpectraMax (M3) was used to determine the fluorescence from UA159. RFU of total biomass and biofilm mass was assessed by exciting at fixed wavelengths of 385 and 405 nm at a spectral band width of 10 nm. Emission spectra at 770 nm were observed with 385 nm and an emission of 800 and 810 nm with 405 nm. ANOVA on the ranks of the measurements was used, with four different factors including wavelength (770, 800 and 810 nm); total biomass or biofilm mass; various growth media (TSB, BHI, THB) and the presence/absence of hemin and interactions among the factors. The analysis allowed each media-hemin combination to have different variances. Hemin decreased the amount of fluorescence; regardless of the levels of the other factors (p≤0.0001). Without hemin, BHI had more fluorescence than THB (p≤0.0003) and TSB (p≤0.0001). However with hemin, THB had more fluorescence than BHI (p≤0.0001) and TSB (p≤0.0001). The role of hemin and porphyrin-related compounds in the metabolism of S. mutans should be elucidated

Cassini: Mission to Saturn and Titan

The Cassini Mission to Saturn and Titan represents an important step into the exploration of the outerplanets. It will expand on the flyby encounters of Pioneer and Voyager and parallel the detailed exploration of the Jupiter system to be accomplished by the Galileo Mission. By continuing the study of the two giant planets and enabling detailed comparisons of their structure and behavior, Cassini will provide a tremendous insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. In addition, by virtue of its focus on the Saturnian satellite Titan, Cassini will return detailed data on an environment whose atmospheric chemistry may resemble that of the primitive Earth. The scientific objectives can be divided into five categories: Titan, Saturn, rings, icy satellites, and magnetospheres. The key area of interest to exobiologists is Titan; the other four scientific categories will be discussed briefly to provide a comprehensive overview of the Cassini Mission

PEPFAR Public Health Evaluation - Care and Support - Phase 2 Kenya

Phase 2 consisted of a longitudinal cohort study to measure patient-reported outcomes of care and support, a costing survey, and qualitative interviews to understand patient and carer experiences

Structural and wetting properties of nature\u27s finest silks (order Embioptera)

Insects from the order Embioptera (webspinners) spin silk fibres which are less than 200 nm in diameter. In this work, we characterized and compared the diameters of single silk fibres from nine species—Antipaluria urichi, Pararhagadochir trinitatis, Saussurembia calypso, Diradius vandykei, Aposthonia ceylonica, Haploembia solieri, H. tarsalis, Oligotoma nigra and O. saundersii. Silk from seven of these species have not been previously quantified. Our studies cover five of the 10 named taxonomic families and represent about one third of the known taxonomic family-level diversity in the order Embioptera. Naturally spun silk varied in diameter from 43.6 ± 1.7 nm for D. vandykei to 122.4 ± 3.2 nm for An. urichi. Mean fibre diameter did not correlate with adult female body length. Fibre diameter is more similar in closely related species than in more distantly related species. Field observations indicated that silk appears shiny and smooth when exposed to rainwater. We therefore measured contact angles to learn more about interactions between silk and water. Higher contact angles were measured for silks with wider fibre diameter and higher quantity of hydrophobic amino acids. High static contact angles (ranging up to 122° ± 3° for An. urichi) indicated that silken sheets spun by four arboreal, webspinner species were hydrophobic. A second contact angle measurement made on a previously wetted patch of silk resulted in a lower contact angle (average difference was greater than 27°) for all four species. Our studies suggest that silk fibres which had been previously exposed to water exhibited irreversible changes in hydrophobicity and water adhesion properties. Our results are in alignment with the ‘super-pinning’ site hypothesis by Yarger and co-workers to describe the hydrophobic, yet water adhesive, properties exhibited by webspinner silk fibres. The physical and chemical insights gained here may inform the synthesis and development of smaller diameter silk fibres with unique water adhesion properties

Curbing the Hepatitis B Epidemic in Asian American Communities: Engaging Local Hospitals

Background. In the United States, more than 50% of the 1.2 million living with hepatitis B infection are Asian Americans (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2013). In the city of San Francisco, Asian Americans make up 33% of the population and the city itself has the highest rate of liver cancer in the nation (United States Census Bureau, 2010, California Cancer Registry, 2011). In 2007, to address the risk of hepatitis B and liver cancer, the San Francisco Hep B Free Campaign (SFHBF) drew together a comprehensive coalition of key leaders and organizations from media, health care, government, community and business sectors within and beyond the Asian American community. Methods. Based on 13 key informant interviews with stakeholders, this paper explores how SFHBF incorporated local city hospitals as coalition partners to increase knowledge and screening of hepatitis B among Asian Americans throughout San Francisco. Results. Key findings include the various steps needed to involve hospitals including 1) Identify mission and key stakeholders, 2) Create collaborations among hospitals; 3) Identify benefits to hospitals. Implications. This research makes a unique contribution to the literature on engaging hospitals in community health partnerships. The findings have implications for other public health initiatives that are seeking to engage and involve hospitals as partners and collaborators

The Impact of Nicotine and Cigarette Smoke Condensate on Metabolic Activity and Biofilm Formation of Candida albicans on Acrylic Denture Material

Purpose Smokers have increased denture stomatitis caused primarily by Candida albicans. The primary aim of this study was to demonstrate the impact of a wide range of nicotine and cigarette smoke condensate (CSC) concentrations on biofilm formation and metabolic activity of C. albicans on acrylic denture material. Materials and Methods C. albicans (ATCC strain 10231) was used. Standardized denture acrylic (PMMA) specimens (total of 135 specimens) were incubated with C. albicans and exposed to nicotine and CSC at different concentrations (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 mg/ml) and (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 mg/ml), respectively. For each experiment, 3 samples per nicotine and CSC concentration and a total of 45 specimens (27 specimens for the nicotine and 18 specimens for the CSC‐treated samples) were used and were selected randomly for each group. The control group consisted of 0 mg/ml of nicotine or CSC. The viability of C. albicans was measured using spiral plating on blood agar plates. The effect of nicotine and CSC concentrations on planktonic cells was were measured using a microplate reader. Metabolic activity of 24‐hour‐old established C. albicans biofilm exposed to nicotine and CSC for 24 hours in microtiter plates was determined using a 2,3‐bis (2‐methoxy‐4‐nitro‐5‐sulfophenyl)‐2H‐tetrazolium‐carboxanilide (XTT) reduction assay. Results The viability of C. albicans increased concomitant with increasing concentrations of CSC and nicotine, particularly at 0.5 and 2 mg/ml, respectively. Concentrations of CSC and nicotine above this resulted in an inhibitory effect on C. albicans viability. CSC and nicotine at 4 and 16 mg/ml, respectively, increased C. albicans biofilm metabolic activity. Conclusion Nicotine and CSC up to certain concentrations caused increases in biofilm formation, metabolic activity, viability, and planktonic cell absorbance of C. albicans. This in vitro study demonstrates the effectiveness of tobacco on promoting the growth of C. albicans and suggests their potential contributing factor in C. albicans biofilm related infections in smokers