More for less?:Puzzling selection effects in the insurance market

We document a large and persistent anomaly in the UK car insurance market over the period 2012\u201313: insurance companies charged a higher premium for third-party (liability) insurance than comprehensive insurance (which includes third party). Furthermore, some companies charged higher premiums for comprehensive poli- cies with larger deductibles. In contrast to current theories of adverse or propitious selection, our evidence suggests both that consumers are too confused or too poorly informed to arbitrage between policy types and that sellers of car insurance do not implement the incentive-compatibility constraints at the heart of consumer demand theory. This particular insurance market is much less sophisticated than that characterized by modern microeconomic theory

Lost but Not Forgotten—The Economics of Improving Patient Retention in AIDS Treatment Programs

Gregory Bisson and Jeffrey Stringer discuss the implications of a new study showing how loss to follow-up affects the effectiveness of a public sector HIV program in Côte d'Ivoire

Short and long term retention in antiretroviral care in health facilities in rural Malawi and Zimbabwe.

Despite the successful scale-up of ART services over the past years, long term retention in ART care remains a major challenge, especially in high HIV prevalence and resource-limited settings. This study analysed the short (<12 months) and long (>12 months) term retention on ART in two ART programmes in Malawi (Thyolo district) and Zimbabwe (Buhera district)

Not All Are Lost: Interrupted Laboratory Monitoring, Early Death, and Loss to Follow-Up (LTFU) in a Large South African Treatment Program

Background: Many HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings are plagued by high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU). Most studies have not distinguished between those who briefly interrupt, but return to care, and those more chronically lost to follow-up. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 11,397 adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 71 Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference/Catholic Relief Services HIV treatment clinics between January 2004 and December 2008. We distinguished among patients with early death, within the first 7 months on ART; patients with interruptions in laboratory monitoring (ILM), defined as missing visits in the first 7 months on ART, but returning to care by 12 months; and those LTFU, defined as missing all follow-up visits in the first 12 months on ART. We used multilevel logistic regression models to determine patient and clinic-level characteristics associated with these outcomes. Results: In the first year on ART, 60% of patients remained in care, 30% missed laboratory visits, and 10% suffered early death. Of the 3,194 patients who missed laboratory visits, 40% had ILM, resuming care by 12 months. After 12 months on ART, patients with ILM had a 30% increase in detectable viremia compared to those who remained in care. Risk of LTFU decreased with increasing enrollment year, and was lowest for patients who enrolled in 2008 compared to 2004 [OR 0.49, 95%CI 0.39–0.62]. Conclusions: In a large community-based cohort in South Africa, nearly 30% of patients miss follow-up visits for CD4 monitoring in the first year after starting ART. Of those, 40% have ILM but return to clinic with worse virologic outcomes than those who remain in care. The risk of chronic LTFU decreased with enrollment year. As ART availability increases, interruptions in care may become more common, and should be accounted for in addressing program LTFU

An Outbreak of Dengue Fever in St. Croix (US Virgin Islands), 2005

BACKGROUND: Periodic outbreaks of dengue fever occur in the United States Virgin Islands. In June 2005, an outbreak of dengue virus (DENV) serotype-2 with cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was detected in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. The objective of this report is to describe this outbreak of DENV-2 and the findings of a case-control study examining risk factors for DHF. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This is the largest dengue outbreak ever recorded in St. Croix, with 331 suspected dengue cases reported island-wide during 2005 (62.2 cases/10,000 population); 54% were hospitalized, 21% had at least one hemorrhagic manifestation, 28% had thrombocytopenia, 5% had DHF and 1 patient died. Eighty-nine laboratory-positive hospitalized patients were identified. Of these, there were 15 (17%) who met the WHO criteria for DHF (cases) and 74 (83%) who did not (controls). The only variable significantly associated with DHF on bivariate or multivariable analysis was age, with an adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.033 (1.003,1.064). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: During this outbreak of DENV-2, a high proportion of cases developed DHF and increasing age was significantly associated with DHF

The 'At-risk mental state' for psychosis in adolescents : clinical presentation, transition and remission.

Despite increased efforts over the last decade to prospectively identify individuals at ultra-high risk of developing a psychotic illness, limited attention has been specifically directed towards adolescent populations (<18 years). In order to evaluate how those under 18 fulfilling the operationalised criteria for an At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) present and fare over time, we conducted an observational study. Participants (N = 30) generally reported a high degree of functional disability and frequent and distressing perceptual disturbance, mainly in the form of auditory hallucinations. Seventy percent (21/30) were found to fulfil the criteria for a co-morbid ICD-10 listed mental health disorder, with mood (affective; 13/30) disorders being most prevalent. Overall transition rates to psychosis were low at 24 months follow-up (2/28; 7.1 %) whilst many participants demonstrated a significant reduction in psychotic-like symptoms. The generalisation of these findings may be limited due to the small sample size and require replication in a larger sample

Comparison of Methods to Correct Survival Estimates and Survival Regression Analysis on a Large HIV African Cohort

The evaluation of HIV treatment programs is generally based on an estimation of survival among patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). In large HIV programs, loss to follow-up (LFU) rates remain high despite active patient tracing, which is likely to bias survival estimates and survival regression analyses

A formally verified compiler back-end

This article describes the development and formal verification (proof of semantic preservation) of a compiler back-end from Cminor (a simple imperative intermediate language) to PowerPC assembly code, using the Coq proof assistant both for programming the compiler and for proving its correctness. Such a verified compiler is useful in the context of formal methods applied to the certification of critical software: the verification of the compiler guarantees that the safety properties proved on the source code hold for the executable compiled code as well

Recurrence and mortality according to Estrogen Receptor status for breast cancer patients undergoing conservative surgery. Ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence dynamics provides clues for tumour biology within the residual breast

BACKGROUND: The study was designed to determine how tumour hormone receptor status affects the subsequent pattern over time (dynamics) of breast cancer recurrence and death following conservative primary breast cancer resection. METHODS: Time span from primary resection until both first recurrence and death were considered among 2825 patients undergoing conservative surgery with or without breast radiotherapy. The hazard rates for ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR), distant metastasis (DM) and mortality throughout 10 years of follow-up were assessed. RESULTS: DM dynamics displays the same bimodal pattern (first early peak at about 24 months, second late peak at the sixth-seventh year) for both estrogen receptor (ER) positive (P) and negative (N) tumours and for all local treatments and metastatic sites. The hazard rates for IBTR maintain the bimodal pattern for ERP and ERN tumours; however, each IBTR recurrence peak for ERP tumours is delayed in comparison to the corresponding timing of recurrence peaks for ERN tumours. Mortality dynamics is markedly different for ERP and ERN tumours with more early deaths among patients with ERN than among patients with ERP primary tumours. CONCLUSION: DM dynamics is not influenced by the extent of conservative primary tumour resection and is similar for both ER phenotypes across different metastatic sites, suggesting similar mechanisms for tumour development at distant sites despite apparently different microenvironments. The IBTR risk peak delay observed in ERP tumours is an exception to the common recurrence risk rhythm. This suggests that the microenvironment within the residual breast tissue may enforce more stringent constraints upon ERP breast tumour cell growth than other tissues, prolonging the latency of IBTR. This local environment is, however, apparently less constraining to ERN cells, as IBTR dynamics is similar to the corresponding recurrence dynamics among other distant tissue