Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

Options for early breast cancer follow-up in primary and secondary care : a systematic review

Background Both incidence of breast cancer and survival have increased in recent years and there is a need to review follow up strategies. This study aims to assess the evidence for benefits of follow-up in different settings for women who have had treatment for early breast cancer. Method A systematic review to identify key criteria for follow up and then address research questions. Key criteria were: 1) Risk of second breast cancer over time - incidence compared to general population. 2) Incidence and method of detection of local recurrence and second ipsi and contra-lateral breast cancer. 3) Level 1–4 evidence of the benefits of hospital or alternative setting follow-up for survival and well-being. Data sources to identify criteria were MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL, PSYCHINFO, ZETOC, Health Management Information Consortium, Science Direct. For the systematic review to address research questions searches were performed using MEDLINE (2011). Studies included were population studies using cancer registry data for incidence of new cancers, cohort studies with long term follow up for recurrence and detection of new primaries and RCTs not restricted to special populations for trials of alternative follow up and lifestyle interventions. Results Women who have had breast cancer have an increased risk of a second primary breast cancer for at least 20 years compared to the general population. Mammographically detected local recurrences or those detected by women themselves gave better survival than those detected by clinical examination. Follow up in alternative settings to the specialist clinic is acceptable to women but trials are underpowered for survival. Conclusions Long term support, surveillance mammography and fast access to medical treatment at point of need may be better than hospital based surveillance limited to five years but further large, randomised controlled trials are needed

COVID-19-Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States

Background: Most COVID-19 deaths occur among adults, not children, and attention has focused on mitigating COVID-19 burden among adults. However, a tragic consequence of adult deaths is that high numbers of children might lose their parents and caregivers to COVID-19- associated deaths. Methods: We quantified COVID-19-associated caregiver loss and orphanhood in the US and for each state using fertility and excess and COVID-19 mortality data. We assessed burden and rates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of custodial and co-residing grandparents, overall and by race/ethnicity. We further examined variations in COVID-19-associated orphanhood by race/ethnicity for each state. Results: We found that from April 1, 2020 through June 30, 2021, over 140,000 children in the US experienced the death of a parent or grandparent caregiver. The risk of such loss was 1.1 to 4.5 times higher among children of racial and ethnic minorities, compared to Non-Hispanic White children. The highest burden of COVID-19-associated death of parents and caregivers occurred in Southern border states for Hispanic children, Southeastern states for Black children, and in states with tribal areas for American Indian/Alaska Native populations. Conclusions: We found substantial disparities in distributions of COVID-19-associated death of parents and caregivers across racial and ethnic groups. Children losing caregivers to COVID-19 need care and safe, stable, and nurturing families with economic support, quality childcare and evidence-based parenting support programs. There is an urgent need to mount an evidence-based comprehensive response focused on those children at greatest risk, in the states most affected

Assessing clinical communication skills in physicians: are the skills context specific or generalizable

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Communication skills are essential for physicians to practice Medicine. Evidence for the validity and domain specificity of communication skills in physicians is equivocal and requires further research. This research was conducted to adduce evidence for content and context specificity of communication skills and to assess the usefulness of a generic instrument for assessing communication skills in International Medical Graduates (IMGs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A psychometric design was used for identifying the reliability and validity of the communication skills instruments used for high-stakes exams for IMG's. Data were collected from 39 IMGs (19 men – 48.7%; 20 women – 51.3%; Mean age = 41 years) assessed at 14 station OSCE and subsequently in supervised clinical practice with several instruments (patient surveys; ITERs; Mini-CEX).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All the instruments had adequate reliability (Cronbach's alpha: .54 – .96). There were significant correlations (r range: 0.37 – 0.70, <it>p </it>< .05) of communication skills assessed by examiner with standardized patients, and of mini-CEX with patient surveys, and ITERs. The intra-item reliability across all cases for the 13 items was low (Cronbach's alpha: .20 – .56). The correlations of communication skills within method (e.g., OSCE or clinical practice) were significant but were non-significant between methods (e.g., OSCE and clinical practice).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results provide evidence of context specificity of communication skills, as well as convergent and criterion-related validity of communication skills. Both in OSCEs and clinical practice, communication checklists need to be case specific, designed for content validity.</p

Comparative analysis of the lambda-interferons IL-28A and IL-29 regarding their transcriptome and their antiviral properties against hepatitis C virus.

Specific differences in signaling and antiviral properties between the different Lambda-interferons, a novel group of interferons composed of IL-28A, IL-28B and IL-29, are currently unknown. This is the first study comparatively investigating the transcriptome and the antiviral properties of the Lambda-interferons IL-28A and IL-29. Expression studies were performed by microarray analysis, quantitative PCR (qPCR), reporter gene assays and immunoluminometric assays. Signaling was analyzed by Western blot. HCV replication was measured in Huh-7 cells expressing subgenomic HCV replicon. All hepatic cell lines investigated as well as primary hepatocytes expressed both IFN-λ receptor subunits IL-10R2 and IFN-λR1. Both, IL-28A and IL-29 activated STAT1 signaling. As revealed by microarray analysis, similar genes were induced by both cytokines in Huh-7 cells (IL-28A: 117 genes; IL-29: 111 genes), many of them playing a role in antiviral immunity. However, only IL-28A was able to significantly down-regulate gene expression (n = 272 down-regulated genes). Both cytokines significantly decreased HCV replication in Huh-7 cells. In comparison to liver biopsies of patients with non-viral liver disease, liver biopsies of patients with HCV showed significantly increased mRNA expression of IL-28A and IL-29. Moreover, IL-28A serum protein levels were elevated in HCV patients. In a murine model of viral hepatitis, IL-28 expression was significantly increased. IL-28A and IL-29 are up-regulated in HCV patients and are similarly effective in inducing antiviral genes and inhibiting HCV replication. In contrast to IL-29, IL-28A is a potent gene repressor. Both IFN-λs may have therapeutic potential in the treatment of chronic HCV

Changes in Weight, Waist Circumference and Compensatory Responses with Different Doses of Exercise among Sedentary, Overweight Postmenopausal Women

It has been suggested that exercise training results in compensatory mechanisms that attenuate weight loss. However, this has only been examined with large doses of exercise. The goal of this analysis was to examine actual weight loss compared to predicted weight loss (compensation) across different doses of exercise in a controlled trial of sedentary, overweight or obese postmenopausal women (n = 411).Participants were randomized to a non-exercise control (n = 94) or 1 of 3 exercise groups; exercise energy expenditure of 4 (n = 139), 8 (n = 85), or 12 (n = 93) kcal/kg/week (KKW). Training intensity was set at the heart rate associated with 50% of each woman's peak VO(2) and the intervention period was 6 months. All exercise was supervised. The main outcomes were actual weight loss, predicted weight loss (exercise energy expenditure/ 7700 kcal per kg), compensation (actual minus predicted weight loss) and waist circumference. The study sample had a mean (SD) age 57.2 (6.3) years, BMI of 31.7 (3.8) kg/m(2), and was 63.5% Caucasian. The adherence to the intervention was >99% in all exercise groups. The mean (95% CI) weight loss in the 4, 8 and 12 KKW groups was -1.4 (-2.0, -0.8), -2.1 (-2.9, -1.4) and -1.5 (-2.2, -0.8) kg, respectively. In the 4 and 8 KKW groups the actual weight loss closely matched the predicted weight loss of -1.0 and -2.0 kg, respectively, resulting in no significant compensation. In the 12 KKW group the actual weight loss was less than the predicted weight loss (-2.7 kg) resulting in 1.2 (0.5, 1.9) kg of compensation (P<0.05 compared to 4 and 8 KKW groups). All exercise groups had a significant reduction in waist circumference which was independent of changes in weight.In this study of previously sedentary, overweight or obese, postmenopausal women we observed no difference in the actual and predicted weight loss with 4 and 8 KKW of exercise (72 and 136 minutes respectively), while the 12 KKW (194 minutes) produced only about half of the predicted weight loss. However, all exercise groups had a significant reduction in waist circumference which was independent of changes in weight.(ClinicalTrials.gov) NCT00011193

Anticipated help-seeking for cancer symptoms before and after the coronavirus pandemic: results from the Onco-barometer population survey in Spain

Background: The patient interval-the time patients wait before consulting their physician after noticing cancer symptoms-contributes to diagnostic delays. We compared anticipated help-seeking times for cancer symptoms and perceived barriers to help-seeking before and after the coronavirus pandemic. Methods: Two waves (pre-Coronavirus: February 2020, N = 3269; and post-Coronavirus: August 2020, N = 1500) of the Spanish Onco-barometer population survey were compared. The international ABC instrument was administered. Pre-post comparisons were performed using multiple logistic and Poisson regression models. Results: There was a consistent and significant increase in anticipated times to help-seeking for 12 of 13 cancer symptoms, with the largest increases for breast changes (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.22-1-96) and unexplained bleeding (OR = 1.50, 1.26-1.79). Respondents were more likely to report barriers to help-seeking in the post wave, most notably worry about what the doctor may find (OR = 1.58, 1.35-1.84) and worry about wasting the doctor's time (OR = 1.48, 1.25-1.74). Women and older individuals were the most affected. Conclusions: Participants reported longer waiting times to help-seeking for cancer symptoms after the pandemic. There is an urgent need for public interventions encouraging people to consult their physicians with symptoms suggestive of cancer and counteracting the main barriers perceived during the pandemic situation

Therapeutic DNA vaccine induces broad T cell responses in the gut and sustained protection from viral rebound and AIDS in SIV-infected rhesus macaques.

Immunotherapies that induce durable immune control of chronic HIV infection may eliminate the need for life-long dependence on drugs. We investigated a DNA vaccine formulated with a novel genetic adjuvant that stimulates immune responses in the blood and gut for the ability to improve therapy in rhesus macaques chronically infected with SIV. Using the SIV-macaque model for AIDS, we show that epidermal co-delivery of plasmids expressing SIV Gag, RT, Nef and Env, and the mucosal adjuvant, heat-labile E. coli enterotoxin (LT), during antiretroviral therapy (ART) induced a substantial 2-4-log fold reduction in mean virus burden in both the gut and blood when compared to unvaccinated controls and provided durable protection from viral rebound and disease progression after the drug was discontinued. This effect was associated with significant increases in IFN-γ T cell responses in both the blood and gut and SIV-specific CD8+ T cells with dual TNF-α and cytolytic effector functions in the blood. Importantly, a broader specificity in the T cell response seen in the gut, but not the blood, significantly correlated with a reduction in virus production in mucosal tissues and a lower virus burden in plasma. We conclude that immunizing with vaccines that induce immune responses in mucosal gut tissue could reduce residual viral reservoirs during drug therapy and improve long-term treatment of HIV infection in humans

Genetic, environmental and stochastic factors in monozygotic twin discordance with a focus on epigenetic differences

PMCID: PMC3566971This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited