The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

BACKGROUND: The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y), and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%), amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9%) of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8) million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8%) was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI data, and limited evidence to inform on potential clearance of LTBI. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that approximately 1.7 billion individuals were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) globally in 2014, just under a quarter of the global population. Investment in new tools to improve diagnosis and treatment of those with LTBI at risk of progressing to disease is urgently needed to address this latent reservoir if the 2050 target of eliminating TB is to be reached

Force of tuberculosis infection among adolescents in a high HIV and TB prevalence community: a cross-sectional observation study

BACKGROUND: Understanding of the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) in high TB and HIV prevalent settings is required in order to develop effective intervention strategies for TB control. However, there are little data assessing incidence of TB infection in adolescents in these settings. METHODS: We performed a tuberculin skin test (TST) and HIV survey among secondary school learners in a high HIV and TB prevalence community. TST responses to purified protein derivative RT23 were read after 3 days. HIV-infection was assessed using Orasure(R) collection device and ELISA testing. The results of the HIV-uninfected participants were combined with those from previous surveys among primary school learners in the same community, and force of TB infection was calculated by age. RESULTS: The age of 820 secondary school participants ranged from 13 to 22 years. 159 participants had participated in the primary school surveys. At a 10 mm cut-off, prevalence of TB infection among HIV-uninfected and first time participants, was 54% (n = 334/620). HIV prevalence was 5% (n = 40/816). HIV infection was not significantly associated with TST positivity (p = 0.07). In the combined survey dataset, TB prevalence was 45% (n = 645/1451), and was associated with increasing age and male gender. Force of infection increased with age, from 3% to 7.3% in adolescents [greater than or equal to]20 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: We show a high force of infection among adolescents, positively associated with increasing age. We postulate this is due to increased social contact with infectious TB cases. Control of the TB epidemic in this setting will require reducing the force of infection