From reading numbers to seeing ratios: a benefit of icons for risk comprehension

Promoting a better understanding of statistical data is becoming increasingly important for improving risk comprehension and decision-making. In this regard, previous studies on Bayesian problem solving have shown that iconic representations help infer frequencies in sets and subsets. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which icons enhance performance remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the benefit offered by icon arrays lies in a better alignment between presented and requested relationships, which should facilitate the comprehension of the requested ratio beyond the represented quantities. To this end, we analyzed individual risk estimates based on data presented either in standard verbal presentations (percentages and natural frequency formats) or as icon arrays. Compared to the other formats, icons led to estimates that were more accurate, and importantly, promoted the use of equivalent expressions for the requested probability. Furthermore, whereas the accuracy of the estimates based on verbal formats depended on their alignment with the text, all the estimates based on icons were equally accurate. Therefore, these results support the proposal that icons enhance the comprehension of the ratio and its mapping onto the requested probability and point to relational misalignment as potential interference for text-based Bayesian reasoning. The present findings also argue against an intrinsic difficulty with understanding single-event probabilities

Structural mapping in statistical word problems: A relational reasoning approach to Bayesian inference

Presenting natural frequencies facilitates Bayesian inferences relative to using percentages. Nevertheless, many people, including highly educated and skilled reasoners, still fail to provide Bayesian responses to these computationally simple problems. We show that the complexity of relational reasoning (e.g., the structural mapping between the presented and requested relations) can help explain the remaining difficulties. With a non-Bayesian inference that required identical arithmetic but afforded a more direct structural mapping, performance was universally high. Furthermore, reducing the relational demands of the task through questions that directed reasoners to use the presented statistics, as compared with questions that prompted the representation of a second, similar sample, also significantly improved reasoning. Distinct error patterns were also observed between these presented- and similar-sample scenarios, which suggested differences in relational-reasoning strategies. On the other hand, while higher numeracy was associated with better Bayesian reasoning, higher-numerate reasoners were not immune to the relational complexity of the task. Together, these findings validate the relational-reasoning view of Bayesian problem solving and highlight the importance of considering not only the presented task structure, but also the complexity of the structural alignment between the presented and requested relations

Degradation of HIF-1alpha under Hypoxia Combined with Induction of Hsp90 Polyubiquitination in Cancer Cells by Hypericin: a Unique Cancer Therapy

The perihydroxylated perylene quinone hypericin has been reported to possess potent anti-metastatic and antiangiogenic activities, generated by targeting diverse crossroads of cancer-promoting processes via unique mechanisms. Hypericin is the only known exogenous reagent that can induce forced poly-ubiquitination and accelerated degradation of heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) in cancer cells. Hsp90 client proteins are thereby destabilized and rapidly degraded. Hsp70 client proteins may potentially be also affected via preventing formation of hsp90-hsp70 intermediate complexes. We show here that hypericin also induces enhanced degradation of hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) in two human tumor cell lines, U87-MG glioblastoma and RCC-C2VHL−/− renal cell carcinoma and in the non-malignant ARPE19 retinal pigment epithelial cell line. The hypericin-accelerated turnover of HIF-1α, the regulatory precursor of the HIF-1 transcription factor which promotes hypoxic stress and angiogenic responses, overcomes the physiologic HIF-1α protein stabilization which occurs in hypoxic cells. The hypericin effect also eliminates the high HIF-1α levels expressed constitutively in the von-Hippel Lindau protein (pVHL)-deficient RCC-C2VHL−/− renal cell carcinoma cell line. Unlike the normal ubiquitin-proteasome pathway-dependent turnover of HIF-α proteins which occurs in normoxia, the hypericin-induced HIF-1α catabolism can occur independently of cellular oxygen levels or pVHL-promoted ubiquitin ligation of HIF-1α. It is mediated by lysosomal cathepsin-B enzymes with cathepsin-B activity being optimized in the cells through hypericin-mediated reduction in intracellular pH. Our findings suggest that hypericin may potentially be useful in preventing growth of tumors in which HIF-1α plays pivotal roles, and in pVHL ablated tumor cells such as renal cell carcinoma through elimination of elevated HIF-1α contents in these cells, scaling down the excessive angiogenesis which characterizes these tumors

Sympatric Speciation: When Is It Possible in Bacteria?

This study investigated a potential auditory illusion in duration perception induced by rhythmic temporal contexts. Listeners with or without musical training performed a duration discrimination task for a silent period in a rhythmic auditory sequence. The critical temporal interval was presented either within a perceptual group or between two perceptual groups. We report the just-noticeable difference (difference limen, DL) for temporal intervals and the point of subjective equality (PSE) derived from individual psychometric functions based on performance of a two-alternative forced choice task. In musically untrained individuals, equal temporal intervals were perceived as significantly longer when presented between perceptual groups than within a perceptual group (109.25% versus 102.5% of the standard duration). Only the perceived duration of the between-group interval was significantly longer than its objective duration. Musically trained individuals did not show this effect. However, in both musically trained and untrained individuals, the relative difference limens for discriminating the comparison interval from the standard interval were larger in the between-groups condition than in the within-group condition (7.3% vs. 5.6% of the standard duration). Thus, rhythmic grouping affected sensitivity to duration changes in all listeners, with duration differences being harder to detect at boundaries of rhythm groups than within rhythm groups. Our results show for the first time that temporal Gestalt induces auditory duration illusions in typical listeners, but that musical experts are not susceptible to this effect of rhythmic grouping.Ellison Medical FoundationSwiss National Science Foundation (PA00P1_131448/1

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

The Transformation of Citizenship in Complex Societies

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a theoretical framework for understanding the transformation of citizenship in complex societies. To this end, the paper is divided into six sections. The first section elucidates the main reasons for the renaissance of the concept of citizenship in the contemporary social sciences. The second section argues that a comprehensive sociological theory of citizenship needs to account for the importance of four dimensions: the content, the type, the conditions, and the arrangements of citizenship. The third section suggests that in order to understand the sociological significance of T.H. Marshall’s account of legal, political, and social rights we need to explore the particular historical contexts in which citizenship rights became ideologically and institutionally relevant. The fourth section offers some critical reflections on the main shortcomings of the Marshallian approach to citizenship. The fifth section draws an analogy between the transformation of social movements and the transformation of citizenship. The sixth section sheds light on the fact that contemporary citizenship studies are confronted with a curious paradox: the differentiation of citizenship has led to both the relativistic impoverishment and the pluralistic enrichment of contemporary accounts of ‘the social’ and ‘the political’.The paper concludes by arguing that, under conditions of late modernity, the state’s capacity to gain political legitimacy increasingly depends on its ability to confront the normative challenges posed by the ubiquity of societal complexity

An evaluation of 9-1-1 calls to assess the effectiveness of dispatch-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) instructions: design and methodology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiac arrest is the leading cause of mortality in Canada, and the overall survival rate for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest rarely exceeds 5%. Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) has been shown to increase survival for cardiac arrest victims. However, bystander CPR rates remain low in Canada, rarely exceeding 15%, despite various attempts to improve them. Dispatch-assisted CPR instructions have the potential to improve rates of bystander CPR and many Canadian urban communities now offer instructions to callers reporting a victim in cardiac arrest. Dispatch-assisted CPR instructions are recommended by the International Guidelines on Emergency Cardiovascular Care, but their ability to improve cardiac arrest survival remains unclear.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The overall goal of this study is to better understand the factors leading to successful dispatch-assisted CPR instructions and to ultimately save the lives of more cardiac arrest patients. The study will utilize a before-after, prospective cohort design to specifically: 1) Determine the ability of 9-1-1 dispatchers to correctly diagnose cardiac arrest; 2) Quantify the frequency and impact of perceived agonal breathing on cardiac arrest diagnosis; 3) Measure the frequency with which dispatch-assisted CPR instructions can be successfully completed; and 4) Measure the impact of dispatch-assisted CPR instructions on bystander CPR and survival rates.</p> <p>The study will be conducted in 19 urban communities in Ontario, Canada. All 9-1-1 calls occurring in the study communities reporting out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in victims 16 years of age or older for which resuscitation was attempted will be eligible. Information will be obtained from 9-1-1 call recordings, paramedic patient care reports, base hospital records, fire medical records and hospital medical records. Victim, caller and system characteristics will be measured in the study communities before the introduction of dispatch-assisted CPR instructions (before group), during the introduction (run-in phase), and following the introduction (after group).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The study will obtain information essential to the development of clinical trials that will test a variety of educational approaches and delivery methods for telephone cardiopulmonary resuscitation instructions. This will be the first study in the world to clearly quantify the impact of dispatch-assisted CPR instructions on survival to hospital discharge for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest victims.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00664443</p