Simulating Dynamical Features of Escape Panic

One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires in crowded buildings; at other times, stampedes can arise from the rush for seats or seemingly without causes. Tragic examples within recent months include the panics in Harare, Zimbabwe, and at the Roskilde rock concert in Denmark. Although engineers are finding ways to alleviate the scale of such disasters, their frequency seems to be increasing with the number and size of mass events. Yet, systematic studies of panic behaviour, and quantitative theories capable of predicting such crowd dynamics, are rare. Here we show that simulations based on a model of pedestrian behaviour can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of and preconditions for panic and jamming by incoordination. Our results suggest practical ways of minimising the harmful consequences of such events and the existence of an optimal escape strategy, corresponding to a suitable mixture of individualistic and collective behaviour.Comment: For related information see http://angel.elte.hu/~panic, http://www.helbing.org, http://angel.elte.hu/~fij, and http://angel.elte.hu/~vicse

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Simulating crowd evacuation with socio-cultural, cognitive, and emotional elements

In this research, the effects of culture, cognitions, and emotions on crisis management and prevention are analysed. An agent-based crowd evacuation simulation model was created, named IMPACT, to study the evacuation process from a transport hub. To extend previous research, various socio-cultural, cognitive, and emotional factors were modelled, including: language, gender, familiarity with the environment, emotional contagion, prosocial behaviour, falls, group decision making, and compliance. The IMPACT model was validated against data from an evacuation drill using the existing EXODUS evacuation model. Results show that on all measures, the IMPACT model is within or close to the prescribed boundaries, thereby establishing its validity. Structured simulations with the validated model revealed important findings, including: the effect of doors as bottlenecks, social contagion speeding up evacuation time, falling behaviour not affecting evacuation time significantly, and travelling in groups being more beneficial for evacuation time than travelling alone. This research has important practical applications for crowd management professionals, including transport hub operators, first responders, and risk assessors

Aggregate programming: From foundations to applications

We live in a world with an ever-increasing density of computing devices, pervading every aspect of our environment. Programming these devices is challenging, due to their large numbers, potential for frequent and complex network interactions with other nearby devices, and the open and evolving nature of their capabilities and applications. Aggregate programming addresses these challenges by raising the level of abstraction, so that a programmer can operate in terms of collections of interacting devices. In particular, field calculus provides a safe and extensible model for encapsulation, modulation, and composition of services. On this foundation, a set of resilient \u201cbuilding block\u201d operators support development of APIs that can provide resilience and scalability guarantees for any service developed using them. We illustrate the power of this approach by discussion of several recent applications, including crowd safety at mass public events, disaster relief operations, construction of resilient enterprise systems, and network security