The co-evolution of technological promises, modelling, policies and climate change targets

The nature and framing of climate targets in international politics has changed substantially since their early expressions in the 1980s. Here, we describe their evolution in five phases-from 'climate stabilization' to specific 'temperature outcomes'-co-evolving with wider climate politics and policy, modelling methods and scenarios, and technological promises (from nuclear power to carbon removal). We argue that this co-evolution has enabled policy prevarication, leaving mitigation poorly delivered, yet the technological promises often remain buried in the models used to inform policy. We conclude with a call to recognise and break this pattern to unleash more effective and just climate policy. This Perspective maps the history of climate targets and shows how the international goal of avoiding dangerous climate change has been reinterpreted in the light of new modelling methods and technological promises, ultimately enabling policy prevarication and limiting mitigation

Effect of the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic on the Incidence of Epidemic Keratoconjunctivitis and on Hygiene Behavior: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: EKC is transmitted chiefly by direct hand contact. It is suspected that the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic influenced hand washing. This study aims to examine the relationship between the 2009/2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and hygiene behavior. Methods: We compared the EKC prevalence trends before, during and after the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic by using a t-test comparison of EKC sentinel surveillance. Results: During the pre-pandemic period, the incidence of EKC increased from the 21st to the 44th week each year. However, during the pandemic period in 2009, there was no epidemic peak. In the post-pandemic period, the epidemic curve was similar to that in the pre-pandemic period. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the total number of EKC patients during the pandemic period showed a decrease of 44.9 % (t value = 27.23, p = 0.002). Comparing the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods by age group, we found there to be a significant decrease in the number of EKC patients for all age groups (24.12#t value#27.23, all P,0.05). This finding was most evident in the teenage group (62%) compared to the other age groups (decreases of 29 to 44%). Conclusions: A continuing effort should be made to educate the public on basic infection prevention behaviors in th

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and energy efficiency in weight loss diets

Carbohydrate restriction as a strategy for control of obesity is based on two effects: a behavioral effect, spontaneous reduction in caloric intake and a metabolic effect, an apparent reduction in energy efficiency, greater weight loss per calorie consumed. Variable energy efficiency is established in many contexts (hormonal imbalance, weight regain and knock-out experiments in animal models), but in the area of the effect of macronutrient composition on weight loss, controversy remains. Resistance to the idea comes from a perception that variable weight loss on isocaloric diets would somehow violate the laws of thermodynamics, that is, only caloric intake is important ("a calorie is a calorie"). Previous explanations of how the phenomenon occurs, based on equilibrium thermodynamics, emphasized the inefficiencies introduced by substrate cycling and requirements for increased gluconeogenesis. Living systems, however, are maintained far from equilibrium, and metabolism is controlled by the regulation of the rates of enzymatic reactions. The principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics which emphasize kinetic fluxes as well as thermodynamic forces should therefore also be considered

A Survey of Bayesian Statistical Approaches for Big Data

The modern era is characterised as an era of information or Big Data. This has motivated a huge literature on new methods for extracting information and insights from these data. A natural question is how these approaches differ from those that were available prior to the advent of Big Data. We present a review of published studies that present Bayesian statistical approaches specifically for Big Data and discuss the reported and perceived benefits of these approaches. We conclude by addressing the question of whether focusing only on improving computational algorithms and infrastructure will be enough to face the challenges of Big Data

Changes to the Fossil Record of Insects through Fifteen Years of Discovery

The first and last occurrences of hexapod families in the fossil record are compiled from publications up to end-2009. The major features of these data are compared with those of previous datasets (1993 and 1994). About a third of families (>400) are new to the fossil record since 1994, over half of the earlier, existing families have experienced changes in their known stratigraphic range and only about ten percent have unchanged ranges. Despite these significant additions to knowledge, the broad pattern of described richness through time remains similar, with described richness increasing steadily through geological history and a shift in dominant taxa, from Palaeoptera and Polyneoptera to Paraneoptera and Holometabola, after the Palaeozoic. However, after detrending, described richness is not well correlated with the earlier datasets, indicating significant changes in shorter-term patterns. There is reduced Palaeozoic richness, peaking at a different time, and a less pronounced Permian decline. A pronounced Triassic peak and decline is shown, and the plateau from the mid Early Cretaceous to the end of the period remains, albeit at substantially higher richness compared to earlier datasets. Origination and extinction rates are broadly similar to before, with a broad decline in both through time but episodic peaks, including end-Permian turnover. Origination more consistently exceeds extinction compared to previous datasets and exceptions are mainly in the Palaeozoic. These changes suggest that some inferences about causal mechanisms in insect macroevolution are likely to differ as well