Development and application of an evaluation framework for urban traffic management and Intelligent Transport Systems

The aim of this paper is to present and apply a new evaluation framework for traffic management and Intelligent Transport Systems, to assist urban transport authorities in assessing relevant policies and technologies as to their performance. The principles behind performance measures and indices are outlined, along with a description of theframework development methodology. Two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the topics of mobility and traffic accidents respectively are formulated and operative definitions are presented. Then, the new KPIs are applied to a case study in the city of Paris, involving the introduction of a scheme granting priority to buses at signalised junctions. The results from the before- and after-analysis are reported and interpreted, not only in terms of the case study itself, but most importantly from the standpoint of the applicability of the evaluation framework

Functional Electrical Stimulation Leads to Increased Volume of the Aged Thyroarytenoid Muscle.

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: To reverse sarcopenia and increase the volumes of atrophied laryngeal muscles by functional electrical stimulation (FES) using a minimal invasive surgical procedure in an aged ovine model. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective animal study. METHODS: A stimulation electrode was placed unilaterally near the terminal adduction branch of the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) adjacent to the right cricothyroid joint. The electrode was connected to an implant located subcutaneously at the neck region. Predesigned training patterns were automatically delivered by a bidirectional radio frequency link using a programming device and were repeated automatically by the implant every other day over 11 weeks in the awake animal. Outcome parameters comprised volumetric measurements based on three-dimensional reconstructions of the entire thyroarytenoid muscle (TAM), as well as gene expression analyses. RESULTS: We found significant increases of the volumes of the stimulated TAM of 11% and the TAM diameter at the midmembranous parts of the vocal folds of nearly 40%. Based on gene expression, we did not detect a shift of muscle fiber composition. CONCLUSIONS: FES of the terminal branches of the RLN is a secure and effective way to reverse the effects of age-related TAM atrophy and to increase volumes of atrophied muscles. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: NA Laryngoscope, 2018

Highlights from the first ten years of the New Zealand earthquake forecast testing center

We present highlights from the first decade of operation of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Most results are based on reprocessing using the best available catalog, because the testing center did not consistently capture the complete real-time catalog. Tests of models with daily updating show that aftershock models incorporating Omori- Utsu decay can outperform long-term smoothed seismicity models with probability gains up to 1000 during major aftershock sequences. Tests of models with 3-month updating show that several models with every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) model, incorporating the precursory scale increase phenomenon and without Omori-Utsu decay, and the double-branching model, with both Omori-Utsu and exponential decay in time, outperformed a regularly updated smoothed seismicity model. In tests of 5-yr models over 10 yrs without updating, a smoothed seismicity model outperformed the earthquake source model of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The performance of 3-month and 5-yr models was strongly affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence, which occurred in a region of previously low seismicity. Smoothed seismicity models were shown to perform better with more frequent updating. CSEP models were a useful resource for the development of hybrid time-varying models for practical forecasting after major earthquakes in the Canterbury and Kaikoura regions. © 2018 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved

Rupture by damage accumulation in rocks

The deformation of rocks is associated with microcracks nucleation and propagation, i.e. damage. The accumulation of damage and its spatial localization lead to the creation of a macroscale discontinuity, so-called "fault" in geological terms, and to the failure of the material, i.e. a dramatic decrease of the mechanical properties as strength and modulus. The damage process can be studied both statically by direct observation of thin sections and dynamically by recording acoustic waves emitted by crack propagation (acoustic emission). Here we first review such observations concerning geological objects over scales ranging from the laboratory sample scale (dm) to seismically active faults (km), including cliffs and rock masses (Dm, hm). These observations reveal complex patterns in both space (fractal properties of damage structures as roughness and gouge), time (clustering, particular trends when the failure approaches) and energy domains (power-law distributions of energy release bursts). We use a numerical model based on progressive damage within an elastic interaction framework which allows us to simulate these observations. This study shows that the failure in rocks can be the result of damage accumulation

Bilateral Functional Electrical Stimulation for the Treatment of Presbyphonia in a Sheep Model

Objectives: The aim of the study was to increase muscle volume and improve phonation characteristics of the aged ovine larynx by functional electrical stimulation (FES) using a minimally invasive surgical procedure. Methods: Stimulation electrodes were placed bilaterally near the terminal adduction branch of the recurrent laryngeal nerves (RLN). The electrodes were connected to battery powered pulse generators implanted subcutaneously at the neck region. Training patterns were programmed by an external programmer using a bidirectional radio frequency link. Training sessions were repeated automatically by the implant every other day for 1 week followed by every day for 8 weeks in the awake animal. Another group of animals were used as sham, with electrodes positioned but not connected to an implant. Outcome parameters included gene expression analysis, histological assessment of muscle fiber size, functional analysis, and volumetric measurements based on three-dimensional reconstructions of the entire thyroarytenoid muscle (TAM). Results: Increase in minimal muscle fiber diameter and an improvement in vocal efficiency were observed following FES, compared with sham animals. Conclusion: This is the first study to demonstrate beneficial effects in the TAM of FES at molecular, histological, and functional levels. FES of the terminal branches of the RLN reversed the effects of age-related changes and improved vocal efficiency

The Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb-based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb-based and coulomb/statistical hybrid models were developed that account better for uncertainties and secondary stress sources. Here, we report on the performance of this new suite of models compared with empirical epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Comprising the 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake and three subsequent M = 5:9 shocks (including the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake), this sequence provides a wealth of data (394 M = 3:95 shocks). We assessed models over multiple forecast horizons (1 day, 1 month, and 1 yr, updated after M = 5:9 shocks). The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the coulomb-based models. Purely physics-based models have a performance comparable to the ETAS model, and the two coulomb/statistical hybrids perform better or similar to the corresponding statistical model. On the other hand, an ETAS model with anisotropic (fault-based) aftershock zones is just as informative. These results provide encouraging evidence for the predictive power of coulomb-based models. To assist with model development, we identify discrepancies between forecasts and observations. © 2018 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved

Shipping as a Knowledge Industry: Research and Strategic Planning at Ocean Group

This chapter approaches the question of how transformations in the world of shipping relate to wider trends in business and general history through the lens of knowledge. It will investigate how technological and managerial knowledge was created, developed and exploited as a corporate resource from the 1950s onwards in Ocean Transport and Trading, one of the UK’s leading liner shipping firms. The chapter will, first, briefly discuss the resource-based view of the firm and the importance of knowledge as a corporate resource. It will then examine Ocean’s use of technological and operational knowledge in the post-war era. The following section examines the introduction of modern management concepts at Ocean from the late 1960s and their impact on corporate strategy. In conclusion, the chapter will argue that the introduction of managerial concepts of knowledge contributed to Ocean’s gradual withdrawal from shipping and transformation into a provider of global logistics services and that analyzing shipping as a knowledge industry helps make sense of the transformation of the industry

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability:Achievements and Priorities

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.Published1305-13136T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremotoJCR Journa