The feasibility of canine rabies elimination in Africa: dispelling doubts with data

<p><b>Background:</b> Canine rabies causes many thousands of human deaths every year in Africa, and continues to increase throughout much of the continent.</p> <p><b>Methodology/Principal Findings:</b> This paper identifies four common reasons given for the lack of effective canine rabies control in Africa: (a) a low priority given for disease control as a result of lack of awareness of the rabies burden; (b) epidemiological constraints such as uncertainties about the required levels of vaccination coverage and the possibility of sustained cycles of infection in wildlife; (c) operational constraints including accessibility of dogs for vaccination and insufficient knowledge of dog population sizes for planning of vaccination campaigns; and (d) limited resources for implementation of rabies surveillance and control. We address each of these issues in turn, presenting data from field studies and modelling approaches used in Tanzania, including burden of disease evaluations, detailed epidemiological studies, operational data from vaccination campaigns in different demographic and ecological settings, and economic analyses of the cost-effectiveness of dog vaccination for human rabies prevention.</p> <p><b>Conclusions/Significance:</b> We conclude that there are no insurmountable problems to canine rabies control in most of Africa; that elimination of canine rabies is epidemiologically and practically feasible through mass vaccination of domestic dogs; and that domestic dog vaccination provides a cost-effective approach to the prevention and elimination of human rabies deaths.</p&gt

Sensitivity of Chaos Measures in Detecting Stress in the Focusing Control Mechanism of the Short-Sighted Eye

yesWhen fixating on a stationary object, the power of the eye’s lens fluctuates. Studies have suggested that changes in these so-called microfluctuations in accommodation may be a factor in the onset and progression of short-sightedness. Like many physiological signals, the fluctuations in the power of the lens exhibit chaotic behaviour. A breakdown or reduction in chaos in physiological systems indicates stress to the system or pathology. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the chaos in fluctuations of the power of the lens changes with refractive error, i.e. how short-sighted a subject is, and/or accommodative demand, i.e. the effective distance of the object that is being viewed. Six emmetropes (EMMs, non-short-sighted), six early-onset myopes (EOMs, onset of short-sightedness before the age of 15), and six late-onset myopes (LOMs, onset of short-sightedness after the age of 15) took part in the study. Accommodative microfluctuations were measured at 22 Hz using an SRW-5000 autorefractor at accommodative demands of 1 D (dioptres), 2 D, and 3 D. Chaos theory analysis was used to determine the embedding lag, embedding dimension, limit of predictability, and Lyapunov exponent. Topological transitivity was also tested for. For comparison, the power spectrum and standard deviation were calculated for each time record. The EMMs had a statistically significant higher Lyapunov exponent than the LOMs ( 0.64±0.330.64±0.33 vs. 0.39±0.20 D/s0.39±0.20 D/s ) and a lower embedding dimension than the LOMs ( 3.28±0.463.28±0.46 vs. 3.67±0.493.67±0.49 ). There was insufficient evidence (non-significant p value) of a difference between EOMs and EMMs or EOMs and LOMs. The majority of time records were topologically transitive. There was insufficient evidence of accommodative demand having an effect. Power spectrum analysis and assessment of the standard deviation of the fluctuations failed to discern differences based on refractive error. Chaos differences in accommodation microfluctuations indicate that the control system for LOMs is under stress in comparison to EMMs. Chaos theory analysis is a more sensitive marker of changes in accommodation microfluctuations than traditional analysis methods

Analysis of Rabies in China: Transmission Dynamics and Control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them

Applying a new concept of embedding qualitative research: An example from a quantitative study of carers of people in later stage dementia

BACKGROUND: Qualitative methods are increasingly included in larger studies to provide a richer understanding of people's experience. This paper explores the potential of using a novel approach to embedded qualitative design as part of an observational study examining the effectiveness of home support for people in later stage dementia in England. The method involved collecting and analysing unsolicited conversational comments made by participants as they completed standardised measures. An evaluation of the method is presented using the voices of participants to illustrate its potential. METHODS: The conversations of 17 carers recruited to an observational study were audio recorded to gather commentary made while completing a structured interview. Data were interrogated using thematic analysis to investigate the feasibility of conducting an embedded qualitative study, the potential richness of the material and participants' reactions to formal questioning and participating in research. RESULTS: The findings revealed that qualitative data were available from this approach. Analysis generated three themes from carers: conflicting carer emotions; the importance of maintaining normality and agency within day-to-day life; and tensions between these desires and making use of formal services. Important issues for carers were revealed establishing the benefit of using the method. The advantages of exploiting unsolicited conversation included enhancing understanding of people's lived experience, reducing participant burden in research and easing the process of data collection. In addition, it provided an opportunity to evaluate individuals' experience of the research process. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate how unsolicited comments during structured interviews may appear incidental but can reveal important aspects of living with dementia. The method also emphasised methodological challenges for research in dementia, including the influence and impact of the research context. Further research is required to evaluate the method with other groups including people with dementia themselves

Seasonal effects of influenza on mortality in a subtropical city

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza has been associated with a heavy burden of mortality. In tropical or subtropical regions where influenza viruses circulate in the community most of the year, it is possible that there are seasonal variations in the effects of influenza on mortality, because of periodic changes in environment and host factors as well as the frequent emergence of new antigenically drifted virus strains. In this paper we explored this seasonal effect of influenza.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A time-varying coefficient Poisson regression model was fitted to the weekly numbers of mortality of Hong Kong from 1996 to 2002. Excess risks associated with influenza were calculated to assess the seasonal effects of influenza.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that the effects of influenza were higher in winter and late spring/early summer than other seasons. The two-peak pattern of seasonal effects of influenza was found for cardio-respiratory disease and sub-categories pneumonia and influenza, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic heart disease as well as for all-cause deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results provide insight into the possibility that seasonal factors may have impact on virulence of influenza besides their effects on virus transmission. The results warrant further studies into the mechanisms behind the seasonal effect of influenza.</p