Recommendations for National Risk Assessment for Disaster Risk Management in EU

Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) calls Participating States to develop risk assessments periodically and make the summary of their National Risk Assessment (NRA) available to the European Commission as a way to prevent disaster risk in Europe. In order to facilitate countries on this task, the European Commission developed the Guidelines on risk assessment and mapping. In spite of these, the summaries received have revealed several challenges related to the process and the content of the assessments. The current report aims to provide scientific support to the UCPM participant countries in their development of NRA, explaining why and how a risk assessment could be carried out, how the results of this could be used for Disaster Risk Management planning and in general, how science can help civil protection authorities and staff from ministries and agencies engaged in NRA activities. The report is the result of the collaborative effort of the Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre team and nine Joint Research Centre expert groups which provided their insight on tools and methods for specific risk assessment related to certain hazards and assets: drought, earthquakes, floods, terrorist attacks, biological disasters, critical infrastructures, chemical accidents, nuclear accidents and Natech accidents. The current document would be improved by a next version that would include scientific guidance on other risks and the collaboration of potential users.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Dispersion and ground deposition of radioactive material according to airflow patterns for enhancing the preparedness to N/R emergencies

The intent of minimizing the impact of the large amount of radioactive material potentially released into the atmosphere in a nuclear event implies preparedness activities. In the early phase and in absence of field observations, countermeasures beyond the Emergency Planning Zone would largely rely on a previous characterization of the transport and dispersion of radioactive particles and the potential levels of radioactive contamination. This study presents a methodology to estimate the atmospheric transport, dispersion and ground deposition of radioactive particles based on an ensemble approach. The methodology starts identifying the main airflow directions by means of the air mass trajectories calculated by the HYSPLIT model, and, secondly, the dispersion and the ground deposition characteristics associated with each airflow pattern by running the RIMPUFF atmospheric dispersion model. From the basis of these results, different products for protective measures in early phases of a nuclear emergency can be obtained, such as the most probable transport direction, spatial probability distribution of deposits and the geographical probability distribution of deposits above certain predefined threshold. The method is tested based on the HYSPLIT trajectories and RIMPUFF simulations during five consecutive years (2012-2016) at the Almaraz Nuclear Power Plant, in Spain. 3644 forward air mass trajectories were calculated (at 00 and 12 UTC, and with duration of 36 hours). Eight airflow patterns were identified, and within each pattern, the “pure days”, i.e. those days in which trajectories at 00 and 12 UTC grouped into the same airflow pattern, were extracted to simulate for each day the atmospheric dispersion and ground deposition following a hypothetical ISLOCA accident sequence of 35 hours. In total, 833 simulations were carried out, in which ground contamination was estimated at cell level on a non-homogeneous geographical grid spacing up to 800 km from Almaraz. The corresponding outcomes show a large variability in the area covered and in deposits between airflow patterns, which provide comprehensive and oriented information and resources to decision makers to emergency management.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

Risk factors associated with sexually transmitted infections and HIV among adolescents in a reference clinic in Madrid.

INTRODUCTION:Adolescents have a higher incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) than persons of older age groups. The WHO emphasises the need to adopt specific and comprehensive prevention programmes aimed at this age group. The objective of this work was to analyse the prevalence of HIV/STIs among adolescents and to identify the sociodemographic, clinical and behavioural markers associated with these infections, in order to promote specific preventive strategies. METHODOLOGY:Retrospective descriptive study of adolescents, aged 10-19 years, who were attended to for the first consultation between 2016 and 2018 in a reference STI clinic in Madrid. All adolescents were given a structured epidemiological questionnaire where information on sociodemographic, clinical and behavioural characteristics was collected. They were screened for human inmmunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The processing and analysis of the data was done using the STATA 15.0 statistical package. RESULTS:The frequency of HIV/STIs detected among all adolescents was: gonorrhoea 21.7%, chlamydia 17.1%, syphilis 4.8% and HIV 2.4%. After conducting a multivariate analysis, the independent and statistically significant variables related to the presence of an STI were having first sexual relations at a young age and having a history of STIs. Latin American origin was just below the level of statistical significance (p = 0.066). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS:Adolescents who begin sexual relations at an early age or those who have a history of HIV/STIs are at higher risk of acquiring STIs. Comprehensive prevention programmes aimed specifically at adolescents should be implemented, especially before the age of 13 years

Impact of late presentation of HIV infection on short-, mid- and long-term mortality and causes of death in a multicenter national cohort : 2004-2013

To analyze the impact of late presentation (LP) on overall mortality and causes of death and describe LP trends and risk factors (2004-2013). Cox models and logistic regression were used to analyze data from a nation-wide cohort in Spain. LP is defined as being diagnosed when CD4 < 350 cells/ml or AIDS. Of 7165 new HIV diagnoses, 46.9% (CI:45.7-48.0) were LP, 240 patients died.First-year mortality was the highest (aHR = 10.3[CI:5.5-19.3]); between 1 and 4 years post-diagnosis, aHR = 1.9(1.2-3.0); an