Multilevel modelling of refusal and noncontact nonresponse in household surveys: evidence from six UK government surveys

This paper analyses household unit nonresponse and interviewer effects in six major UK government surveys using a multilevel multinomial modelling approach. The models are guided by current conceptual frameworks and theories of survey participation. One key feature of the analysis is the investigation of survey dependent and independent effects of household and interviewer characteristics, providing an empirical exploration of the leverage-salience theory. The analysis is based on the 2001 UK Census Link Study, a unique data source containing an unusually rich set of auxiliary variables, linking the response outcome of six surveys to census data, interviewer observation data and interviewer information, available for respondents and nonrespondents

Alternative approaches to multilevel modelling of survey noncontact and refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey noncontact and refusal: multinomial, sequential and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between noncontact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household nonresponse in the UK, using a dataset with unusually rich information on both respondents and nonrespondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting noncontact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to there being little overlap between the predictors of noncontact and refusal

Optimal Dynamic Procurement Policies for a Storable Commodity with L\'evy Prices and Convex Holding Costs

In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at a random time by maximizing total expected profits. We model the firm's optimal procurement problem as a singular stochastic control problem in which controls are nondecreasing processes and represent the cumulative investment made by the firm in the spot market (a so-called stochastic "monotone follower problem"). We assume a general exponential L\'evy process for the commodity's spot price, rather than the commonly used geometric Brownian motion, and general convex holding costs. We obtain necessary and sufficient first order conditions for optimality and we provide the optimal procurement policy in terms of a "base inventory" process; that is, a minimal time-dependent desirable inventory level that the firm's manager must reach at any time. In particular, in the case of linear holding costs and exponentially distributed demand, we are also able to obtain the explicit analytic form of the optimal policy and a probabilistic representation of the optimal revenue. The paper is completed by some computer drawings of the optimal inventory when spot prices are given by a geometric Brownian motion and by an exponential jump-diffusion process. In the first case we also make a numerical comparison between the value function and the revenue associated to the classical static "newsvendor" strategy.Comment: 28 pages, 3 figures; improved presentation, added new results and section

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data

Objectives: To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context.Setting: Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries.Participants: Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected.Primary and secondary outcome measures: The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls.Results: Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36?months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24?months after marriage.Conclusions: Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear—women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth

The spectrum of the Broad Line Region and the high-energy emission of powerful blazars

High-energy emission (from the X-ray through the gamma-ray band) of Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars is widely associated with the inverse Compton (IC) scattering of ambient photons, produced either by the accretion disk or by the Broad Line Region, by high-energy electrons in a relativistic jet. In the modelling of the IC spectrum one usually adopts a simple black-body approximation for the external radiation field, though the real shape is probably more complex. The knowledge of the detailed spectrum of the external radiation field would allow to better characterize the soft-medium X-ray IC spectrum, which is crucial to address several issues related to the study of these sources. Here we present a first step in this direction, calculating the IC spectra expected by considering a realistic spectrum for the external radiation energy density produced by the BLR, as calculated with the photoionization code CLOUDY. We find that, under a wide range of the physical parameters characterizing the BLR clouds, the IC spectrum calculated with the black-body approximation reproduces quite well the exact spectrum for energies above few keV. In the soft energy band, instead, the IC emission calculated using the BLR emission shows a complex shape, with a moderate excess with respect to the approximate spectrum, which becomes more important for decreasing values of the peak frequency of the photoionizing continuum. We also show that the high-energy spectrum shows a marked steepening, due to the energy dependence of the scattering cross section, above a characteristic energy of 10-20 GeV, quasi independent on the Lorentz factor of the jet.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

The correlates of natural method use in Moldova: is natural method use associated with poverty and isolation?

Natural method use is often associated with high levels of unwanted births and induced abortions. This study investigates the correlates of natural method use in Moldova, a country with one of the highest proportions of natural contraceptive users in Europe. We hypothesize that economic and spatial disadvantage increase the reliance on natural methods whereas exposure to FP programs decreases the probability of natural method use. The analysis considers a sub-sample of 5860 sexually-active women from the 2005 Demographic and Health Survey. Results from multilevel multinomial models, controlling for relevant characteristics and data structure, show that economic disadvantage increases the probability of natural method use; but the overall effect is small. Higher FP media exposure reduces natural method use; however this effect attenuates with age. We conclude that FP efforts directed towards the poorest may have limited impact, but interventions targeted at older women could reduce the burden of unwanted pregnancies

Spontaneous nucleation of structural defects in inhomogeneous ion chains

Structural defects in ion crystals can be formed during a linear quench of the transverse trapping frequency across the mechanical instability from a linear chain to the zigzag structure. The density of defects after the sweep can be conveniently described by the Kibble-Zurek mechanism. In particular, the number of kinks in the zigzag ordering can be derived from a time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation for the order parameter, here the zigzag transverse size, under the assumption that the ions are continuously laser cooled. In a linear Paul trap the transition becomes inhomogeneous, being the charge density larger in the center and more rarefied at the edges. During the linear quench the mechanical instability is first crossed in the center of the chain, and a front, at which the mechanical instability is crossed during the quench, is identified which propagates along the chain from the center to the edges. If the velocity of this front is smaller than the sound velocity, the dynamics becomes adiabatic even in the thermodynamic limit and no defect is produced. Otherwise, the nucleation of kinks is reduced with respect to the case in which the charges are homogeneously distributed, leading to a new scaling of the density of kinks with the quenching rate. The analytical predictions are verified numerically by integrating the Langevin equations of motion of the ions, in presence of a time-dependent transverse confinement. We argue that the non-equilibrium dynamics of an ion chain in a Paul trap constitutes an ideal scenario to test the inhomogeneous extension of the Kibble-Zurek mechanism, which lacks experimental evidence to date.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure