Perceptions of Electoral Fairness and Voter Turnout

Previous research has established a link between turnout and the extent to which voters are faced with a “meaningful” partisan choice in elections; this study extends the logic of this argument to perceptions of the “meaningfulness” of electoral conduct. It hypothesizes that perceptions of electoral integrity are positively related to turnout. The empirical analysis to test this hypothesis is based on aggregate-level data from 31 countries, combined with survey results from Module 1 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems survey project, which includes new and established democracies. Multilevel modeling is employed to control for a variety of individual- and election-level variables that have been found in previous research to influence turnout. The results of the analysis show that perceptions of electoral integrity are indeed positively associated with propensity to vote. </jats:p

Preliminary results for RR Lyrae stars and Classical Cepheids from the Vista Magellanic Cloud (VMC) Survey

The Vista Magellanic Cloud (VMC, PI M.R. Cioni) survey is collecting $K_S$-band time series photometry of the system formed by the two Magellanic Clouds (MC) and the "bridge" that connects them. These data are used to build $K_S$-band light curves of the MC RR Lyrae stars and Classical Cepheids and determine absolute distances and the 3D geometry of the whole system using the $K$-band period luminosity ($PLK_S$), the period - luminosity - color ($PLC$) and the Wesenhiet relations applicable to these types of variables. As an example of the survey potential we present results from the VMC observations of two fields centered respectively on the South Ecliptic Pole and the 30 Doradus star forming region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The VMC $K_S$-band light curves of the RR Lyrae stars in these two regions have very good photometric quality with typical errors for the individual data points in the range of $\sim$ 0.02 to 0.05 mag. The Cepheids have excellent light curves (typical errors of $\sim$ 0.01 mag). The average $K_S$ magnitudes derived for both types of variables were used to derive $PLK_S$ relations that are in general good agreement within the errors with the literature data, and show a smaller scatter than previous studies.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Science. Following a presentation at the conference "The Fundamental Cosmic Distance Scale: State of the Art and the Gaia Perspective", Naples, May 201

Upgraded photon calorimeter with integrating readout for Hall A Compton Polarimeter at Jefferson Lab

The photon arm of the Compton polarimeter in Hall A of Jefferson Lab has been upgraded to allow for electron beam polarization measurements with better than 1% accuracy. The data acquisition system (DAQ) now includes an integrating mode, which eliminates several systematic uncertainties inherent in the original counting-DAQ setup. The photon calorimeter has been replaced with a Ce-doped GSO crystal, which has a bright output and fast response, and works well for measurements using the new integrating method at electron beam energies from 1 to 6 GeV.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figure

The Large Scale Structure in the Universe: From Power-Laws to Acoustic Peaks

The most popular tools for analysing the large scale distribution of galaxies are second-order spatial statistics such as the two-point correlation function or its Fourier transform, the power spectrum. In this review, we explain how our knowledge of cosmic structures, encapsulated by these statistical descriptors, has evolved since their first use when applied on the early galaxy catalogues to the present generation of wide and deep redshift surveys, incorporating the most challenging discovery in the study of the galaxy distribution: the detection of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, to appear in "Data Analysis in Cosmology", Lecture Notes in Physics, 2008, eds. V. J. Martinez, E. Saar, E. Martinez-Gonzalez, and M.J. Pons-Borderia, Springer-Verla

Early above- and below-ground responses of subboreal conifer seedlings to various levels of deciduous canopy removal

We examined the growth of understory conifers, following partial or complete deciduous canopy removal, in a field study established in two regions in Canada. In central British Columbia, we studied the responses of three species (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco, Picea glauca (Moench) Voss x Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm., and Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.), and in northwestern Quebec, we studied one species (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.). Stem and root diameter and height growth were measured 5 years before and 3 years after harvesting. Both root and stem diameter growth increased sharply following release but seedlings showed greater root growth, suggesting that in the short term, improvement in soil resource capture and transport, and presumably stability, may be more important than an increase in stem diameter and height growth. Response was strongly size dependent, which appears to reflect greater demand for soil resources as well as higher light levels and greater tree vigour before release for taller individuals. Growth ratios could not explain the faster response generally attributed to true fir species or the unusual swift response of spruces. Good prerelease vigour of spruces, presumably favoured by deciduous canopies, could explain their rapid response to release

Cosmology with clusters of galaxies

In this Chapter I review the role that galaxy clusters play as tools to constrain cosmological parameters. I will concentrate mostly on the application of the mass function of galaxy clusters, while other methods, such as that based on the baryon fraction, are covered by other Chapters of the book. Since most of the cosmological applications of galaxy clusters rely on precise measurements of their masses, a substantial part of my Lectures concentrates on the different methods that have been applied so far to weight galaxy clusters. I provide in Section 2 a short introduction to the basics of cosmic structure formation. In Section 3 I describe the Press--Schechter (PS) formalism to derive the cosmological mass function, then discussing extensions of the PS approach and the most recent calibrations from N--body simulations. In Section 4 I review the methods to build samples of galaxy clusters at different wavelengths. Section 5 is devoted to the discussion of different methods to derive cluster masses. In Section 6 I describe the cosmological constraints, which have been obtained so far by tracing the cluster mass function with a variety of methods. Finally, I describe in Section 7 the future perspectives for cosmology with galaxy clusters and the challenges for clusters to keep playing an important role in the era of precision cosmology.Comment: 49 pages, 19 figures, Lectures for 2005 Guillermo Haro Summer School on Clusters, to appear in "Lecture notes in Physics" (Springer

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation