Disequilibrium, Self-Selection and Switching Models

The present paper outlines the similarities in the structure of self-selectivity models and disequilibrium models. Both these models fall under the category of switching models—with sample separation known and sample separation unknown. Curiously enough the econometric models with self-selectivity are all switching models with sample separation known, whereas the econometric models with disequilibrium are mostly formulated as switching models with unknown sample separation. The paper argues that the reasons for this are that not much attention is devoted to the reasons for the existence of disequilibrium and the models are all formulated as "rationing" models. It is suggested that many empirical applications of disequilibrium fall in the category of "trading" models and here the sample separation is known and the reasons for the existence of disequilibrium are also clear

Methods of Estimation for Models of Markets with Bounded Price Variation

The paper describes methods of estimation for models of markets with controlled prices. Many practical situations involving disequilibrium are due to price ceilings or price floors or both and thus fall.in the category of the models described here. The paper also distinguishes between "rationing models" where the short side of the market prevails, and "trading models" where no trading takes place if there is excess demand or excess supply

A Time Series Model with Qualitative Variables

This paper considers a distributed lag model in which the dependent variable is observed qualitatively. The relation of our "lagged index" model to other models that have appeared in the literature is discussed and a computationally tractable method of obtaining consistent estimates is presented. The model is applied to data on party identification in the United States. The results obtained indicate that party identification is responsive to changes in individual opinions, especially regarding the performance of an incumbent president

MARKET DRIVEN POWER PLANT INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES IN EUROPE: CLIMATE POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS UNTIL 2050 IN THE MODEL EMELIE-ESY

EMELIE-ESY is a partial equilibrium model with focus on electricity markets. Private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and dispatch over the horizon 2010 to 2050. In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities and climate policies on the European power markets. The model projects an only minor increase of power consumption because of higher wholesale prices or energy efficiency current climate policy, and a balanced consumption pathway under ambitious climate policy. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models in the reference case that predict unexpected heavy consumption increases by 2050. By contrast, we find no investment into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a diminishing share of nuclear energy. We find that renewable energy supply extension as projected can sufficiently meet electricity consumption complemented by only few capacity investments in conventional technology

Methods of Estimation for Models of Markets with Bounded Price Variation

The paper describes methods of estimation for models of markets with controlled prices. Many practical situations involving disequilibrium are due to price ceilings or price floors or both and thus fall.in the category of the models described here. The paper also distinguishes between "rationing models" where the short side of the market prevails, and "trading models" where no trading takes place if there is excess demand or excess supply