Criminal neighbourhoods: does the density of prior offenders encourage others to commit crime?

Using crime data over a period of a decade for Glasgow, this paper explores whether the density of prior offenders in a neighbourhoods has an influence on the propensity of others to (re)commence offending. The study shows that the number of ‘newly active’ offenders in a neighbourhood in the current quarter is positively associated with the density of prior offenders for both violent and property crime from the previous two years. In the case of ‘newly active’ property offenders, the relationship with active prior offenders is only apparent when prior offender counts exceed the median. The paper postulates that intraneighbourhood social mechanisms may be at work to create these effects. The results suggest that policies which concentrate offenders in particular neighbourhoods may increase the number of ‘newly active’ offenders, and point to evidence of a threshold at which these effects take place

Sound propagation over uneven ground and irregular topography

Theoretical, computational, and experimental techniques for predicting the effects of irregular topography on long range sound propagation in the atmosphere was developed. Irregular topography here is understood to imply a ground surface that is not idealized as being perfectly flat or that is not idealized as having a constant specific acoustic impedance. The interest focuses on circumstances where the propagation is similar to what might be expected for noise from low altitude air vehicles flying over suburban or rural terrain, such that rays from the source arrive at angles close to grazing incidence

Sound propagation over uneven ground and irregular topography

The development of theoretical, computational, and experimental techniques for predicting the effects of irregular topography on long range sound propagation in the atmosphere is discussed. Irregular topography here is understood to imply a ground surface that (1) is not idealizable as being perfectly flat or (2) that is not idealizable as having a constant specific acoustic impedance. The study focuses on circumstances where the propagation is similar to what might be expected for noise from low-altitude air vehicles flying over suburban or rural terrain, such that rays from the source arrive at angles close to grazing incidence

Clinical pharmacology as a foundation for translational science.

The evolution of enabling technologies and their associated perspectives into molecular mechanisms underlying disease has extended beyond the abilities of scientific and clinical structures to advance their translation into new algorithms that improve the health of patients and populations.1 Research programs have yielded a vast array of novel molecules related to pathophysiological mechanisms that represent diagnostic and therapeutic targets which have the potential for personalized healthcare management. Yet, despite extraordinary scientific advances, routine successful translation of discovery into new therapeutic tools remains a distant vision. Beyond constraints in bridging discovery science with clinical translation due to obstacles in facilities, resources and in skilled specialized investigators, 95% of therapies brought into product development by the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector eventually fail, reflecting negative balance between efficacy and adverse effects

Measuring the Small-Scale Power Spectrum of Cosmic Density Fluctuations Through 21 cm Tomography Prior to the Epoch of Structure Formation

The thermal evolution of the cosmic gas decoupled from that of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at a redshift z~200. Afterwards and before the first stars had formed, the cosmic neutral hydrogen absorbed the CMB flux at its resonant 21cm spin-flip transition. We calculate the evolution of the spin temperature for this transition and the resulting anisotropies that are imprinted on the CMB sky due to linear density fluctuations during this epoch. These anisotropies at an observed wavelength of 10.56[(1+z)/50] meters, contain an amount of information that is orders of magnitude larger than any other cosmological probe. Their detection, although challenging, could tightly constrain any possible running of the spectral index from inflation (as suggested by WMAP), small deviations from Gaussianity, or any significant contribution from neutrinos or warm dark matter to the cosmic mass budget.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Age-specific vaccine effectiveness of seasonal 2010/2011 and pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 vaccines in preventing influenza in the United Kingdom

An analysis was undertaken to measure age-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2010/11 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (TIV) and monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine (PIV) administered in 2009/2010. The test-negative case-control study design was employed based on patients consulting primary care. Overall TIV effectiveness, adjusted for age and month, against confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 infection was 56% (95% CI 42–66); age-specific adjusted VE was 87% (95% CI 45–97) in <5-year-olds and 84% (95% CI 27–97) in 5- to 14-year-olds. Adjusted VE for PIV was only 28% (95% CI x6 to 51) overall and 72% (95% CI 15–91) in <5-year-olds. For confirmed influenza B infection, TIV effectiveness was 57% (95% CI 42–68) and in 5- to 14-year-olds 75% (95% CI 32–91). TIV provided moderate protection against the main circulating strains in 2010/2011, with higher protection in children. PIV administered during the previous season provided residual protection after 1 year, particularly in the <5 years age group

The relationship between anaesthetic technique, clinicopathological characteristics and the magnitude of the postoperative systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing elective surgery for colon cancer

Background/aim: The magnitude of the postoperative systemic inflammatory response (SIR) is now recognised to be associated with both short and long-term outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for colon cancer. During such surgery, it is unclear whether the anaesthetic regimens influence the magnitude of the postoperative SIR, independent of other factors. The aim of the present study was to examine the association between anaesthetic agents, clinicopathological characteristics and the magnitude of the postoperative SIR in patients undergoing elective surgery for colon cancer. Methods: Patients with colon cancer who underwent elective open or laparoscopic surgery between 2008 and 2016 (n = 409) were studied at a single center. The relationship between type of anaesthesia, surgical technique; open (n = 241) versus laparoscopic (n = 168) and clinicopathological characteristics was examined by using chi-square testing. The chi-square test was used to determine which anaesthetic group influences the POD 2 CRP for only patients undergoing elective open colon surgery. Results: The majority of patients were &lt;75 years old, male, normal weight or obese, underwent open surgery and had regional anaesthesia, in particular an epidural approach. There was a significant association between type of anaesthesia and post-operative CRP on day 2 (p &lt;0.001) in patients undergoing open surgery but not laparoscopic surgery. Other factors associated with type of anaesthesia included; year of operation (p &lt;0.01), surgical technique (p &lt;0.001), and preoperative dexamethasone (p &lt;0.01). Conclusion: In patients undergoing surgery for elective colon cancer, the type of anaesthesia varied over time. The type of anaesthesia appears to influence the magnitude of the postoperative SIR on post-operative day 2 in open surgery but not laparoscopic surgery. Future work using prospective study design is required to better define this relationship

Next nearest neighbour Ising models on random graphs

This paper develops results for the next nearest neighbour Ising model on random graphs. Besides being an essential ingredient in classic models for frustrated systems, second neighbour interactions interactions arise naturally in several applications such as the colour diversity problem and graphical games. We demonstrate ensembles of random graphs, including regular connectivity graphs, that have a periodic variation of free energy, with either the ratio of nearest to next nearest couplings, or the mean number of nearest neighbours. When the coupling ratio is integer paramagnetic phases can be found at zero temperature. This is shown to be related to the locked or unlocked nature of the interactions. For anti-ferromagnetic couplings, spin glass phases are demonstrated at low temperature. The interaction structure is formulated as a factor graph, the solution on a tree is developed. The replica symmetric and energetic one-step replica symmetry breaking solution is developed using the cavity method. We calculate within these frameworks the phase diagram and demonstrate the existence of dynamical transitions at zero temperature for cases of anti-ferromagnetic coupling on regular and inhomogeneous random graphs.Comment: 55 pages, 15 figures, version 2 with minor revisions, to be published J. Stat. Mec