Phylogenetic position of a copper age sheep (Ovis aries) mitochondrial DNA.

Background: Sheep (Ovis aries) were domesticated in the Fertile Crescent region about 9,000-8,000 years ago. Currently, few mitochondrial (mt) DNA studies are available on archaeological sheep. In particular, no data on archaeological European sheep are available. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we describe the first portion of mtDNA sequence of a Copper Age European sheep. DNA was extracted from hair shafts which were part of the clothes of the so-called Tyrolean Iceman or O¨ tzi (5,350 - 5,100 years before present). Mitochondrial DNA (a total of 2,429 base pairs, encompassing a portion of the control region, tRNAPhe, a portion of the 12S rRNA gene, and the whole cytochrome B gene) was sequenced using a mixed sequencing procedure based on PCR amplification and 454 sequencing of pooled amplification products. We have compared the sequence with the corresponding sequence of 334 extant lineages. Conclusions/Significance: A phylogenetic network based on a new cladistic notation for the mitochondrial diversity of domestic sheep shows that the O¨ tzi’s sheep falls within haplogroup B, thus demonstrating that sheep belonging to this haplogroup were already present in the Alps more than 5,000 years ago. On the other hand, the lineage of the O¨ tzi’s sheep is defined by two transitions (16147, and 16440) which, assembled together, define a motif that has not yet been identified in modern sheep populations

Analisi della suscettibilità da frana a scala di bacino (Bacino del Fiume Arno, Toscana-Umbria, Italia)

In questa nota vengono presentati i metodi applicati e i risultati ottenuti in una recente analisi della pericolosità da frana, condotta sul territorio del Bacino del Fiume Arno nell’ambito di una convenzione tra l’Autorità di Bacino e il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell’Università di Firenze (2002-2005). Tutti i dati acquisiti, confluiti in una banca dati GIS, sono stati sintetizzati in carte tematiche e in una carta inventario delle frane. La sovrapposizione dei fattori predisponenti selezionati (pendenza, litologia, uso del suolo, curvatura di profilo e area drenata) ha permesso di definire le unità elementari per il trattamento statistico (Unità Territoriali Omogenee: UTO). La valutazione della pericolosità è stata estesa alle aree prive di movimenti franosi utilizzando metodi statistici multivariati implementati in Reti Neurali Artificiali. L’area di studio è stata suddivisa in cinque Macroaree morfologicamente e geologicamente omogenee: per ogni Macroarea, i predittori neurali sono stati addestrati su un opportuno sottoinsieme di dati, applicando poi i migliori all’intero data-set al fine di generare valori previsti dell’indice di suscettibilità per ogni UTO. Infine, i valori di uscita sono stati riclassificati in differenti livelli di pericolosità in base a criteri di soglia e validati per confronto con l’inventario. Una percentuale di area in frana compresa tra l’81 e il 96% risulta correttamente classificata dalla previsione nelle varie Macroare

Disturbances in groundwater chemical parameters related to seismic and volcanic activity in Kamchatka (Russia)

International audienceStarting from 1992 geochemical data are being collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the pH value and of the most common ions and gases in the groundwater in one deep well located in Petropavlovsk, the capital city of Kamchatka (Russia). On 1 January 1996 a strong eruption started from the Karymsky volcano, that is located about 100km far from the well, in the north-northeastern direction. At the same time, a large earthquake (M=6.9) occurred in the Karymsky area. On 5 December 1997 a very large earthquake (M=7.7) occurred offshore, at a distance of 350km from the well and towards the same direction. The analysis of the geochemical data shows clear variations in the raw temporal trends on both cases. For the first event, a clear premonitory phase appeared; for the second one, some pre-seismic variations could be revealed but permanent modifications of the chemistry of the water subsequent to the earthquake are very clear. In both cases the feature of the geochemical variations is consistent with an afflux of new water in the aquifer connected with the well and with an escape of the Carbon dioxide gas from the ground in different directions. A schematic model able to justify such a phenomenology and the connections of the geochemical variations with the previous tectonic activities is proposed

A possible radio anomaly observed on the occasion of the MW=6.0 earthquake occurred in Dodecanese islands at the end of January 2020

Since 2009, several VLF/LF radio receivers have been installed throughout Europe in order to realize a European radio network for studying the radio precursors of earthquakes, called the INFREP network. The current network has nine VLF/LF receiving stations, two in Romania and Greece, one in Italy, Austria, Portugal, Cyprus, and Serbia. The receivers can measure with 1 min sampling rate the intensity of 10 radio signals in the band VLF (10-50 kHz) and LF (150-300 kHz). The scope of existing transmitters is manifold, e.g. they are used for radio broadcast (LF), for radio- navigation or time signals and mainly for military purposes in the VLF range. At the end of January 2020 an intense seismic crisis occurred in Dodecanese Islands; the main event (Mw= 6.0) occurred on January 30. This seismic activity occurred in the "sensitive" area of the INFREP network. The analysis of the data collected by INFREP receivers has revealed clear anomalies in three VLF signals appearing some days before the main earthquake. The anomalies appear in the trends collected by the Cyprus receiver and the epicenter is inside the 5th Fresnel ellipses defined by transmitters- receiver. Here we report the data analysis and we present in detail the anomalies. The possibility that they are precursors of the quoted earthquake seems significant. Biagi, P.F., Colella, R., Schiavulli, L., Ermini, A., Boudjada, M., Eichelberger, H., Schwingenschuh, K., Katzis, K., Contadakis, M.E., Skeberis, C., Moldovan, I.A. and Bezzeghoud, M. (2019) The INFREP Network: Present Situation and Recent Results. Open Journal of Earthquake Research,8, 101-115. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2019.8200

Wavelet analysis applied on temporal data sets in order to reveal possible pre-seismic radio anomalies and comparison with the trend of the raw data

Since 2009, several radio receivers have been installed throughout Europe in order to realize the INFREP European radio network for studying the VLF (10-50 kHz) and LF (150-300 kHz) radio precursors of earthquakes. Precursors can be related to “anomalies” in the night-time behavior of VLF signals. A suitable method of analysis is the use of the Wavelet spectra. Using the “Morlet function”, the Wavelet transform of a time signal is a complex series that can be usefully represented by its square amplitude, i.e. considering the so-called Wavelet power spectrum. The power spectrum is a 2D diagram that, once properly normalized with respect to the power of the white noise, gives information on the strength and precise time of occurrence of the various Fourier components, which are present in the original time series. The main difference between the Wavelet power spectra and the Fourier power spectra for the time series is that the former identifies the frequency content along the operational time, which cannot be done with the latter. Anomalies are identified as regions of the Wavelet spectrogram characterized by a sudden increase in the power strength. On January 30, 2020 an earthquake with Mw= 6.0 occurred in Dodecanese Islands. The results of the Wavelet analysis carried out on data collected some INFREP receivers is compared with the trends of the raw data. The time series from January 24, 2020 till January 31, 2000 was analyzed. The Wavelet spectrogram shows a peak corresponding to a period of 1 day on the days before January 30. This anomaly was found for signals transmitted at the frequencies 19,58 kHz, 20, 27 kHz, 23,40 kHz with an energy in the peak increasing from 19,58 kHz to 23,40 kHz. In particular, the Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) signal at the frequency 19,58 kHz, shows a peak on January 29, while the frequencies 20,27 kHz and 23,40 kHz are characterized by a peak starting on January 28 and continuing to January 29. The results presented in this work shows the perspective use of the Wavelet spectrum analysis as an operational tool for the detection of anomalies in VLF and LF signal potentially related to EQ precursors

Inferential models: A framework for prior-free posterior probabilistic inference

Posterior probabilistic statistical inference without priors is an important but so far elusive goal. Fisher's fiducial inference, Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions, and Bayesian inference with default priors are attempts to achieve this goal but, to date, none has given a completely satisfactory picture. This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic inference, based on inferential models (IMs), which not only provides data-dependent probabilistic measures of uncertainty about the unknown parameter, but does so with an automatic long-run frequency calibration property. The key to this new approach is the identification of an unobservable auxiliary variable associated with observable data and unknown parameter, and the prediction of this auxiliary variable with a random set before conditioning on data. Here we present a three-step IM construction, and prove a frequency-calibration property of the IM's belief function under mild conditions. A corresponding optimality theory is developed, which helps to resolve the non-uniqueness issue. Several examples are presented to illustrate this new approach.Comment: 29 pages with 3 figures. Main text is the same as the published version. Appendix B is an addition, not in the published version, that contains some corrections and extensions of two of the main theorem

Groundwater helium content related to the Spitak (Armenia) and Karymsky (Russia) earthquakes

The Spitak and Karymsky earthquakes occurred with M46.9 in Armenia and in Kamchatka (Russia), respectively. As regards the Spitak earthquake, we analysed the groundwater helium content data collected by three Georgian and one Armenian measurement sites; as regards the Karymsky earthquake, we analysed the groundwater helium content data collected by two measurement sites in Kamchatka. The first analysis has pointed out that precursory anomalies appeared in the northern area with respect to the Spitak epicentre; on the contrary, only co-post seismic anomalies were revealed in the southern area. As regards the Karymsky earthquake, no pre-co-post seismic variation in the groundwater helium content was revealed at both the measurement sites. The analysis of other hydrogeochemical parameters, collected in these sites, revealed that one site does not show any anomaly; on the contrary, at the other measurement site clear preseimic anomalies appeared in some hydrogeochemical parameters. A possible explanation of the quoted results is presented