Equipment Using a Predictive Health Model

Abstract—In this paper, a model-predictive control based framework is proposed for modeling and optimization of the health state of power system equipment. In the framework, a predictive health model is proposed that predicts the health state of the equipment based on its usage and maintenance actions. Based on the health state, the failure rate of the equipment can be estimated. We propose to use this predictive health model to predict the effects of different maintenance actions. The effects of maintenance actions over a future time window are evaluated by a cost function. The maintenance actions are optimized using this cost function. The proposed framework is applied in the optimization of the loading of transformers based on the thermal degradation of the paper insulation

A Large-Scale Synthesis and Characterization of Quaternary CuIn\u3csub\u3e\u3cem\u3ex\u3c/em\u3e\u3c/sub\u3eGa\u3csub\u3e1−\u3cem\u3ex\u3c/em\u3e\u3c/sub\u3eS\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e Chalcopyrite Nanoparticles via Microwave Batch Reactions

Various quaternary CuInxGa1−xS2 (0 ≤ x ≤ 1) chalcopyrite nanoparticles have been prepared from molecular single-source precursors via microwave decomposition. We were able to control the nanoparticle size, phase, stoichiometry, and solubility. Depending on the choice of surface modifiers used, we were able to tune the solubility of the resulting nanoparticles. This method has been used to generate up to 5 g of nanoparticles and up to 150 g from multiple batch reactions with excellent reproducibility. Data from UV-Vis, photoluminescence, X-ray diffraction, TEM, DSC/TGA-MS, and ICP-OES analyses have shown high reproducibility in nanoparticle size, composition, and bandgap

Incidence and Predictors of Delirium After Cardiac Surgery

Background: The overall purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and perioperative factors that predispose to cause delirium in postoperative cardiac surgery patients in our Intensive Care Unit. Methods: We performed a prospective, observational study. Following institutional review board approval, this study included 234 patients above the age of 18 years meeting the inclusion criteria for cardiac surgery in Shahid Gangalal National Heart Center from July 2018 to December 2018. Preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative data for possible risk factors were obtained. Daily assessment of delirium was done during Intensive Care Unit stay of the patient. Collected data were analysed by means of statistical software SPSS-21. Results: The incidence of delirium was 15.6% (35/224) in our study. Delirium was seen in 14 out of 58 (24.1%) patients with age >60 years which was found to be statistically significant. Preoperative risk factor for developing delirium were carotid artery disease and Hemoglobin level <10gm/dl. Intraoperative risk factor for developing delirium were blood transfusion, longer cardiopulmonary bypass time. Post-operative factors for developing delirium included longer Intensive Care Unit stay, mechanical ventilation time ,duration on inotropes , blood transfusion, use of non-invasive ventilation, sleep deprivation, use of intra-aortic balloon pump, Pao2<70. Conclusions: As shown in our study, delirium is a frequent occurrence in the cardiac surgical population. The incidence of delirium after cardiac surgery was 15.6%. Several risk factors pre-operatively like age>60 years, carotid artery disease, Hb<10gm/dl, intra-operative factors like longer cardiopulmonary bypass time, blood transfusion and post-operatively longer duration of Mechanical ventilation, Intensive Care Unit stay, blood transfusion, use of intra-aortic balloon pump and Non-invasive ventilation were found to be predictors of delirium. Keywords: Keywords: Cardiac surgery; delirium; risk factor

A Large-scale Synthesis and Characterization of Quaternary CuInₓGa₁₋ₓS₂ Chalcopyrite Nanoparticles via Microwave Batch Reactions

Various quaternary CuInxGa1-xS2 (0≤x≤1) chalcopyrite nanoparticles have been prepared from molecular single-source precursors via microwave decomposition. We were able to control the nanoparticle size, phase, stoichiometry, and solubility. Depending on the choice of surface modifiers used, we were able to tune the solubility of the resulting nanoparticles. This method has been used to generate up to 5g of nanoparticles and up to 150g from multiple batch reactions with excellent reproducibility. Data from UV-Vis, photoluminescence, X-ray diffraction, TEM, DSC/TGA-MS, and ICP-OES analyses have shown high reproducibility in nanoparticle size, composition, and bandgap

Methodological perspectives on the application of compound-specific stable isotope fingerprinting for sediment source apportionment

Compound-specific stable isotope (CSSI) fingerprinting of sediment sources is a recently introduced tool to overcome some limitations of conventional approaches for sediment source apportionment. The technique uses the C-13 CSSI signature of plant-derived fatty acids (delta C-13-fatty acids) associated with soil minerals as a tracer. This paper provides methodological perspectives to advance the use of CSSI fingerprinting in combination with stable isotope mixing models (SIMMs) to apportion the relative contributions of different sediment sources (i.e. land uses) to sediments. CSSI fingerprinting allows quantitative estimation of the relative contribution of sediment sources within a catchment at a spatio-temporal resolution, taking into account the following approaches. First, application of CSSI fingerprinting techniques to complex catchments presents particular challenges and calls for well-designed sampling strategies and data handling. Hereby, it is essential to balance the effort required for representative sample collection and analyses against the need to accurately quantify the variability within the system. Second, robustness of the CSSI approach depends on the specificity and conservativeness of the delta C-13-FA fingerprint. Therefore, saturated long-chain (> 20 carbon atoms) FAs, which are biosynthesised exclusively by higher plants and are more stable than the more commonly used short-chain FAs, should be used. Third, given that FA concentrations can vary largely between sources, concentration-dependent SIMMs that are also able to incorporate delta C-13-FA variability should be standard operation procedures to correctly assess the contribution of sediment sources via SIMMs. This paper reflects on the use of delta C-13-FAs in erosion studies and provides recommendations for its application. We strongly advise the use of saturated long-chain (> 20 carbon atoms) FAs as tracers and concentration-dependent Bayesian SIMMs. We anticipate progress in CSSI sediment fingerprinting from two current developments: (i) development of hierarchical Bayesian SIMMs to better address catchment complexity and (ii) incorporation of dual isotope approaches (delta C-13- and delta H-2-FA) to improve estimates of sediment sources

Analysis of maternal and newborn training curricula and approaches to inform future trainings for routine care, basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care in the low- and middle-income countries: Lessons from Ethiopia and Nepal

Program managers routinely design and implement specialised maternal and newborn health trainings for health workers in low- and middle-income countries to provide better-coordinated care across the continuum of care. However, in these countries details on the availability of different training packages, skills covered in those training packages and the gaps in their implementation are patchy. This paper presents an assessment of maternal and newborn health training packages to describe differences in training contents and implementation approaches used for a range of training packages in Ethiopia and Nepal. We conducted a mixed-methods study. The quantitative assessment was conducted using a comprehensive assessment questionnaire based on validated WHO guidelines and developed jointly with global maternal and newborn health experts. The qualitative assessment was conducted through key informant interviews with national stakeholders involved in implementing these training packages and working with the Ministries of Health in both countries. Our quantitative analysis revealed several key gaps in the technical content of maternal and newborn health training packages in both countries. Our qualitative results from key informant interviews provided additional insights by highlighting several issues with trainings related to quality, skill retention, logistics, and management. Taken together, our findings suggest four key areas of improvement: first, training materials should be updated based on the content gaps identified and should be aligned with each other. Second, trainings should address actual health worker performance gaps using a variety of innovative approaches such as blended and self-directed learning. Third, post-training supervision and ongoing mentoring need to be strengthened. Lastly, functional training information systems are required to support planning efforts in both countries

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment:Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km2) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 105 m3 and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 105 m3 of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m3 s‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact

An Integrated Modeling System for Estimating Glacier and Snow Melt Driven Streamflow from Remote Sensing and Earth System Data Products in the Himalayas

Quantification of the contribution of the hydrologic components (snow, ice and rain) to river discharge in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is important for decision-making in water sensitive sectors, and for water resources management and flood risk reduction. In this area, access to and monitoring of the glaciers and their melt outflow is challenging due to difficult access, thus modeling based on remote sensing offers the potential for providing information to improve water resources management and decision making. This paper describes an integrated modeling system developed using downscaled NASA satellite based and earth system data products coupled with in-situ hydrologic data to assess the contribution of snow and glaciers to the flows of the rivers in the HKH region. Snow and glacier melt was estimated using the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) model, further enhanced to accommodate glacier ice melt over clean and debris-covered tongues, then meltwater was input into the USGS Geospatial Stream Flow Model (Geo- SFM). The two model components were integrated into Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources modeling framework (BASINS) as a user-friendly open source system and was made available to countries in high Asia. Here we present a case study from the Langtang Khola watershed in the monsoon-influenced Nepal Himalaya, used to validate our energy balance approach and to test the applicability of our modeling system. The snow and glacier melt model predicts that for the eight years used for model evaluation (October 2003-September 2010), the total surface water input over the basin was 9.43 m, originating as 62% from glacier melt, 30% from snowmelt and 8% from rainfall. Measured streamflow for those years were 5.02 m, reflecting a runoff coefficient of 0.53. GeoSFM simulated streamflow was 5.31 m indicating reasonable correspondence between measured and model confirming the capability of the integrated system to provide a quantification of water availability

Evaluation of the impact of the voucher and accreditation approach on improving reproductive behaviors and status in Cambodia

Background: Cost of delivering reproductive health services to low-income populations will always require total or partial subsidization by government and/or development partners. Broadly termed “demand-side financing” or “output-based aid,” these strategies include a range of interventions that channel government or donor subsidies to the user rather than the service provider. Initial pilot assessments of reproductive health voucher programs suggest that they can increase access, reduce inequities, and enhance program efficiency and service quality. However, there is a paucity of evidence describing how these programs function in different settings for various reproductive health services. Methods/Design: Population Council, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, intends to generate evidence around the “voucher and accreditation” approaches to improving the reproductive health of low-income women in Cambodia. The study comprises four populations: facilities, providers, women of reproductive age using facilities, and women and men who have been pregnant and/or used family planning within the previous 12 months. The study will be carried out in a sample of 20 health facilities that are accredited to provide maternal and newborn health and family planning services to women holding vouchers from operational districts in three provinces: Kampong Thom, Kampot, and Prey Veng and a matched sample of non-accredited facilities in three other provinces. Health facility assessments will be conducted at baseline and endline to track temporal changes in quality of care, client out-of-pocket costs, and utilization. Facility inventories, structured observations, and client exit interviews will be used to collect comparable data across facilities. Health providers will also be interviewed and observed providing care. A population survey of about 3,000 respondents will also be conducted in areas where vouchers are distributed and similar non-voucher locations. Discussion: A quasi-experimental study will investigate the impact of the voucher approach on improving reproductive health behaviors, reproductive health status, and reducing inequities at the population level and assess effects on access, equity, and quality of care at the facility level. If the voucher scheme in Cambodia is found effective, it may help other countries adopt this approach for improving utilization and access to reproductive health and family planning services

Surface crusting as a constraint to sustainable management on a tropical Alfisol: I. Soil physical properties

Physical properties related to crust formation were assessed on a clayey-skeletal, mixed, isohyperthermic Udic Rhodustalf in India. A critical proportion (30 to 40%) of fine-textured fractions, particularly silt, appeared to be important in structural crust formation due to aggregate breakdown, rainfall compaction, and particle rearrangement of the surface soil. Significantly higher water dispersible clay percentage (7.1%) and dispersion ratio (0.34) at 60 days after planting (DAP) indicated diminished structural stability and increased slaking tendency of surface aggregates. Infiltration rates decreased by 40 to 60% in tilled bare systems from 0 to 60 DAP. Termite activity appeared to increase cumulative infiltration and steady state infiltration rate although additional research is required to determine the precise nature of its influence on porosity and pore continuity. Soil cover and biological components may be manageable factors to improve soil structure and stability, as well as to reduce crusting and its associated adverse effects in the semiarid tropic