HOW FAR CAN WE FORECAST? FORECAST CONTENT HORIZONS FOR SOME IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally-accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate such content horizons for a variety of economic variables, and compare these with the maximum horizons which we observe reported in a large sample of empirical economic forecasting studies. We find that there are many instances of published studies which provide forecasts exceeding, often by substantial margins, our estimates of the content horizon for the particular variable and frequency. We suggest some simple reporting practices for forecasts that could potentially bring greater transparency to the process of making the interpreting economic forecasts.

Malnutrition in community-dwelling older people: lessons learnt using a new procedure

This article reports the implementation of a new procedure for screening and treatment of malnutrition in a community NHS trust in England. The barriers and facilitators to implementation were assessed with staff from Integrated Community and Older People's Mental Health teams. Data from interviews and surveys were collected at baseline, 2 months after initial training and 16 months after initial training as well as following deployment of a nutrition lead to embed new developments for nutritional care. The adoption of the procedure made screening and treatment of malnutrition simpler and more likely to be actioned. The benefit of a nutrition lead and local nutrition champions to support and empower staff (avoiding reliance on training alone) was shown to drive change for nutritional care across the community. Prioritisation and commitment of leadership at the organisational level are needed to embed and sustain malnutrition screening and treatment in routine practice

Cervical Ripening for Induction of Labor

Decrease in Cervidil use for cervical ripening by 20% of anticipated doses prior to Dec 1, 2018 (6 mos) , with a potential for cost savings = 40 doses x approx. $2000/dose =$80,000

‘Engage the World’: examining conflicts of engagement in public museums

Public engagement has become a central theme in the mission statements of many cultural institutions, and in scholarly research into museums and heritage. Engagement has emerged as the go-to-it-word for generating, improving or repairing relations between museums and society at large. But engagement is frequently an unexamined term that might embed assumptions and ignore power relationships. This article describes and examines the implications of conflicting and misleading uses of ‘engagement’ in relation to institutional dealings with contested questions about culture and heritage. It considers the development of an exhibition on the Dead Sea Scrolls by the Royal Ontario Museum, Toronto in 2009 within the new institutional goal to ‘Engage the World’. The chapter analyses the motivations, processes and decisions deployed by management and staff to ‘Engage the World’, and the degree to which the museum was able to re-think its strategies of public engagement, especially in relation to subjects,issues and publics that were more controversial in nature

USO DE GORDURA PROTEGIDA NA ALIMENTAÇÃO DE SUÍNOS NA FASE PRÉ-INICIAL

O experimento foi conduzido nos meses de Abril e Maio de 2001, no Centro de Estações Experimentais do Cangüiri, na Granja de Suínos do SCA da UFPR, situada no município de Pinhais (PR). O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar o efeito da inclusão de gordura protegida (GP) na alimentação de suínos na fase de pós-desmame, em substituição em peso ao milho. Foram utilizados 62 leitões recém-desmamados, com 22 dias de vida, em média, mestiços Landrace com Large White, num delineamento experimental em blocos casualizados, com cinco tratamentos em diferentes níveis de inclusão da GP (0; 1,5; 3,0; 4,5 e; 6,0%), com seis repetições por tratamento e dois animais por unidade experimental. Os leitões foram alojados em boxes situados no setor de crescimento e terminação da granja. As rações foram ofertadas à vontade. A análise de variância dos resultados e o teste de diferença entre as médias dos tratamentos, segundo o teste de Newman Keuls, foram efetuadas com o programa SAEG (Sistema de Análises Estatísticas e Genéticas). Em média, os ganhos de peso diário (GPD) foram: 0,448; 0,427; 0,363; 0,351; 0,316 kg; os consumos diários de ração (CDR) foram: 1,40; 1,31; 1,23; 1,20; 1,22 kg; e as conversões alimentares (CA) foram: 1,57; 1,52; 1,71; 1,69; 1,97, respectivamente para os tratamentos de um a cinco. Os resultados obtidos de GPD, CDR e CA apresentaram diferenças significativas entre os tratamentos em regressão linear (P < 0,05), com R2 de 0,96, 0,79 e 0,77, respectivamente. Use of added fat in pre-initial swine feeding Abstract An evaluation of the inclusion of added fat in postweaning swine feeding as a substitute - weight by weight - of corn, was carried out during April and May of 2001 at the Canguiris UFPR Experimental Station Centers, Pinhais PR . For this experiment, 62 landrace/large white recently weaned litters, averaging 22 days of life, were used. The research was carried out according to an experimental delineation in casual blocks with five treatments at 5 different levels of fat inclusion (0, 1.5, 3.0, 4.5, and 6.0%), with six repetitions for each treatment and two animals for each experimental unit. The pigs were located in special boxes used at the Experimental Station Center for growth and termination. The rations were supplied ad libitum. Analysis of variance of the results and the average tests of the different treatments according to Newman Keulss tests were carried out by means of the SAEG (Statistical and Genetics Analysis System) program. The values for the treatments from one to five respectively of the following parameters were considered: 1. Earnings of daily weight (DW): 0.448, 0.427, 0.363, 0.351, 0.316 kg; 2. Daily ration intakes (DCR): 1.40, 1.31, 1.23, 1.20, 1.22 kg; 3. Alimentary conversions (AC): 1.57, 1.52, 1.71, 1.69, 1.97. The lineal regression (P < 0.05) of the results found for DW, DCR and AC showed significant differences among the different treatments, with r² of 0.96, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively

The Feeling of Numbers: emotions in everyday engagements with data and their visualisation

This paper highlights the role that emotions play in engagements with data and their visualisation. To date, the relationship between data and emotions has rarely been noted, in part because data studies have not attended to everyday engagements with data. We draw on an empirical study to show a wide range of emotional engagements with diverse aspects of data and their visualisation, and so demonstrate the importance of emotions as vital components of making sense of data. We nuance the argument that regimes of datafication, in which numbers, metrics and statistics dominate, are characterised by a renewed faith in objectivity and rationality, arguing that in datafied times, it is not only numbers but also the feeling of numbers that is important. We build on the sociology of a) emotions and b) the everyday to do this, and in so doing, we contribute to the development of a sociology of data

Nocodazole Treatment Decreases Expression of Pluripotency Markers Nanog and Oct4 in Human Embryonic Stem Cells

Nocodazole is a known destabiliser of microtubule dynamics and arrests cell-cycle at the G2/M phase. In the context of the human embryonic stem cell (hESC) it is important to understand how this arrest influences the pluripotency of cells. Here we report for the first time the changes in the expression of transcription markers Nanog and Oct4 as well as SSEA-3 and SSEA-4 in human embryonic cells after their treatment with nocodazole. Multivariate permeabilised-cell flow cytometry was applied for characterising the expression of Nanog and Oct4 during different cell cycle phases. Among untreated hESC we detected Nanog-expressing cells, which also expressed Oct4, SSEA-3 and SSEA-4. We also found another population expressing SSEA-4, but without Nanog, Oct4 and SSEA-3 expression. Nocodazole treatment resulted in a decrease of cell population positive for all four markers Nanog, Oct4, SSEA-3, SSEA-4. Nocodazole-mediated cell-cycle arrest was accompanied by higher rate of apoptosis and upregulation of p53. Twenty-four hours after the release from nocodazole block, the cell cycle of hESC normalised, but no increase in the expression of transcription markers Nanog and Oct4 was detected. In addition, the presence of ROCK-2 inhibitor Y-27632 in the medium had no effect on increasing the expression of pluripotency markers Nanog and Oct4 or decreasing apoptosis or the level of p53. The expression of SSEA-3 and SSEA-4 increased in Nanog-positive cells after wash-out of nocodazole in the presence and in the absence of Y-27632. Our data show that in hESC nocodazole reversible blocks cell cycle, which is accompanied by irreversible loss of expression of pluripotency markers Nanog and Oct4