Disequilibrium, Self-Selection and Switching Models

The present paper outlines the similarities in the structure of self-selectivity models and disequilibrium models. Both these models fall under the category of switching models—with sample separation known and sample separation unknown. Curiously enough the econometric models with self-selectivity are all switching models with sample separation known, whereas the econometric models with disequilibrium are mostly formulated as switching models with unknown sample separation. The paper argues that the reasons for this are that not much attention is devoted to the reasons for the existence of disequilibrium and the models are all formulated as "rationing" models. It is suggested that many empirical applications of disequilibrium fall in the category of "trading" models and here the sample separation is known and the reasons for the existence of disequilibrium are also clear

Methods of Estimation for Models of Markets with Bounded Price Variation

The paper describes methods of estimation for models of markets with controlled prices. Many practical situations involving disequilibrium are due to price ceilings or price floors or both and thus fall.in the category of the models described here. The paper also distinguishes between "rationing models" where the short side of the market prevails, and "trading models" where no trading takes place if there is excess demand or excess supply

A Time Series Model with Qualitative Variables

This paper considers a distributed lag model in which the dependent variable is observed qualitatively. The relation of our "lagged index" model to other models that have appeared in the literature is discussed and a computationally tractable method of obtaining consistent estimates is presented. The model is applied to data on party identification in the United States. The results obtained indicate that party identification is responsive to changes in individual opinions, especially regarding the performance of an incumbent president

Methods of Estimation for Models of Markets with Bounded Price Variation

The paper describes methods of estimation for models of markets with controlled prices. Many practical situations involving disequilibrium are due to price ceilings or price floors or both and thus fall.in the category of the models described here. The paper also distinguishes between "rationing models" where the short side of the market prevails, and "trading models" where no trading takes place if there is excess demand or excess supply

A Time Series Model with Qualitative Variables

This paper considers a distributed lag model in which the dependent variable is observed qualitatively. The relation of our "lagged index" model to other models that have appeared in the literature is discussed and a computationally tractable method of obtaining consistent estimates is presented. The model is applied to data on party identification in the United States. The results obtained indicate that party identification is responsive to changes in individual opinions, especially regarding the performance of an incumbent president

Modelling the evolution of distributions : an application to major league baseball

We develop Bayesian techniques for modelling the evolution of entire distributions over time and apply them to the distribution of team performance in Major League baseball for the period 1901-2000. Such models offer insight into many key issues (e.g. competitive balance) in a way that regression-based models cannot. The models involve discretizing the distribution and then modelling the evolution of the bins over time through transition probability matrices. We allow for these matrices to vary over time and across teams. We find that, with one exception, the transition probability matrices (and, hence, competitive balance) have been remarkably constant across time and over teams. The one exception is the Yankees, who have outperformed all other teams