A BMA Analysis to Assess the Urbanization and Climate Change Impact on Urban Watershed Runoff

Abstract A reliable planning of urban drainage systems aimed at the mitigation of flooding, should take into account the possible change over time of impervious cover in the urban watershed and of the climate features. The present study proposes a methodology to analyze the changing in runoff response for a urban watershed accounting several plausible future states of new urbanization and climate. To this aim, several models simulating the evolution scenario of impervious watershed area and of climate change were adopted. However, it is known that an evolution scenario represents only one of all possible occurrence and it is not necessary the true future state, therefore it is needed to find the plausible forecast of the future state by taking into account and combining several possible evolution models. According to this aim, in the present study the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach was applied to several evolution models for climate variables. The Bayesian Model Averaging is a statistic multi-model method that computes a weighted average of the series of available competing models forecast overcoming the problem of arbitrary selecting of single best model and, consequently, the relative requirements of uncertainty analysis. The weighted average is the probability density function (pdf) of the quantity to be forecasted, while the weights correspond to the comparative performance of the models over training period of observation. After the application of BMA, for a given probability, the impervious area extension and the design rainfall event were identified and used as input data for a numerical model based on the SWMM software which was adopted to simulate the behavior of the urban drainage-system adopted as case study. Particularly, the proposed procedure was applied with reference to the Sicilian climate regions (southern Italy)

Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Water Demand Modeling

The actual level of water demand is the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics in water distribution systems. Consequently, it is crucial to estimate it as accurately as possible in order to result in reliable simulation models. In this paper, a copula-based multivariate analysis has been proposed and used for demand prediction for given return period. The analysis is applied to water consumption data collected in the water distribution network of Palermo (Italy). The approach showed to produce consisted demand patterns and to be a powerful tool to be coupled with water distribution network models for design or analysis problems. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd

Correlation between parodontal indexes and orthodontic retainers: prospective study in a group of 16 patients

Purpose. Fixed retainers are used to stabilize dental elements after orthodontic treatment. Being it a permanent treatment, it is necessary to instruct patients about a constant and continuous monitoring of their periodontal conditions and a correct oral hygiene. The aim of this study was to highlight the possible adverse effects of bonded retainers on parameters correlated to the health conditions of periodontal tissues. Materials and methods. We selected 16 patients, under treatment in the Orthodontics Department of University of Bari Dental School, who had undergone a lingual retainer insertion at the end of the orthodontic treatment. The patients were then divided into two groups (Control Group and Study Group) and monitored for 3 and 36 months, respectively. The following indexes were taken into consideration: gingival index (GI), plaque index (PI) and the presence of calculus (Calculus Index, CI), the probing depth and the presence of gingival recession on the six inferior frontal dental elements. Results. After the observation was carried out, any of the patients showed periodontal sockets and gingival recession. In the Study Group, only 1 patient had a PI score=3, the 7 left had scores between 0.66 and 2.83. In the Control Group, one patient had score=0, the other ones showed values between 0.5 and 1.66. The mean GI in the Study Group peaked at a score of 2.83, the minimum was 0.66; whereas in the Control Group the maximum value was 2 and the minimum 0.66. The CI in the Group Study was between 1 and 2. In the Control Group it was absent in only 1 patient, whereas in the remaining 7, it had a value between 0.3 and 1. The clinical data were studied by means of the Wilcoxon test. We found a statistically significant difference for what concerns the Plaque Indexes (PI) (P>0.05) and Calculus Indexes (CI) (P>0.1) in both groups, with higher scores in the Study Group, having retainers for 36 months. Any statistically significant difference was calculated for the GI. Conclusions. We can therefore conclude that patients with lingual retainers need periodontal hygiene and treatment as to prevent, in the course of time, periodontal damages non-detectable in short-term

Definition of Water Meter Substitution Plans based on a Composite Indicator

This paper presents a water meter substitution plan based on a composite "Replacement indicator" which was defined and compared with common substitution strategies based on meter age and on run-to-fail approaches. The methodology was applied to one of the 17 sub-networks in which the Palermo city water distribution network (Italy) is divided. The analysis was carried out considering a substitution budget limitation and the results showed that the use of "Replacement indicator" outperform the classical substitution strategies based on meter age because it takes into account some other variables that may affect meter precision and wearing. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

The Effect of Damage Functions on Urban Flood Damage Appraisal

Flooding damage appraisal can been obtained by interpolating real damage data caused by historical flooding events or accounting the effects of a flood in terms of the depreciation of assets. Most often, the expected damage is evaluated by means of damage functions describing the relationship occurring between the damage and hydraulic characteristics of flood. The present paper aims to evaluate the uncertainty linked to the choice of the depth-damage function adopted in the flood damage analysis. Several possible depth-damage function formulations were selected in literature and applied to historical flooding events monitored in the "Centro Storico" catchment in Palermo (Italy). (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

WIN55,212-2-induced expression of Mir-29b1 favours the suppression of osteosarcoma cell migration in a SPARC-independent manner

WIN55,212-2 (WIN) is a synthetic agonist of cannabinoid receptors that displays promising antitumour properties. The aim of this study is to demonstrate that WIN is able to block the migratory ability of osteosarcoma cells and characterize the mechanisms involved. Using wound healing assay and zymography, we showed that WIN affects cell migration and reduces the activity of the metalloproteases MMP2 and MMP9. This effect seemed to be independent of secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine (SPARC), a matricellular protein involved in tissue remodeling and extracellular matrix deposition. SPARC release was indeed prevented by WIN, and SPARC silencing by RNA interference did not influence the effect of the cannabinoid on cell migration. WIN also increased the release of extracellular vesicles and dramatically upregulated miR-29b1, a key miRNA that modulates cell proliferation and migration. Interestingly, reduced cell migration was observed in stably miR-29b1-transfected cells, similarly to WIN-treated cells. Finally, we show the absence of SPARC in the extracellular vesicles released by osteosarcoma cells and no changes in SPARC level in miR-29b1 overexpressing cells. Overall, these findings suggest that WIN markedly affects cell migration, dependently on miR-29b1 and independently of SPARC, and can thus be considered as a potential innovative therapeutic agent in the treatment of osteosarcoma

Analysis of the impact of intermittent distribution by modelling the network-filling process

In many countries, users acquire private tanks to reduce their vulnerability to water scarcity. In such conditions, water managers often apply intermittent distribution in order to reduce the water volumes supplied to the users. This practice modifies the hydraulic behaviour of the network and determines competition among users that need to collect enough water resource for their uses. Intermittent distribution is thus responsible for the inequality that can occur among users: those located in advantaged positions of the network are able to obtain water resources soon after the service period begins, while others have to wait much longer, after the network is full. This paper analyses the inequalities that take part when intermittent distribution is applied in water scarcity scenarios. Considering the complexity of the process, the analysis was performed by means of an unsteady numerical model. The model was applied to a real case study which provided interesting insights into the network filling process, helping to highlight the advantaged and disadvantaged areas of the network in different water scarcity scenarios