How influential is ballot design in elections?

We exploit an original dataset from a referendum in Peru to study the influence of voting "arrangements" on electoral outcomes. The relative importance of these arrangements (e.g., ballot design) with respect to the fundamentals (e.g., ideology, candidates' quality) has not been measured. After controlling for a comprehensive set of politicians' characteristics, we estimate unbiased ballot order effects making use of the within party variation in outcomes. We estimate a non-linear probability model and we create counterfactuals to conclude that ballot design not only may have changed the electoral results but also has a greater importance than candidates' ideology, education, experience and party affiliation

Products and Markets – The Activities of the Imperial Guilds of Constantinople

AbstractIn the present paper the questions that are covered concern specific entrepreneurial aspects of the imperial guilds in Constantinople of the 10th century. The mentioned aspects are dealing first with the products and services offered by the guilds and secondly with the places, streets and areas where the guild members allowed to do their business. All this information is stated in the Book of the Eparch (BE) or Book of the Prefect («Tο Eπαρχικóν Bιβλίον»). Accordingly we are analyzing first the structure and quantity of the products / services mentioned in the Book of Eparch (BE) and next we are mentioning the used locations prescribed by the Prefect himself. Therefore the investigation analyses the products / services as well as the places connected with each of the products and services that are sold there

Prevalence of evidence of inconsistency and its association with network structural characteristics in 201 published networks of interventions

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis (NMA) has attracted growing interest in evidence-based medicine. Consistency between different sources of evidence is fundamental to the reliability of the NMA results. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of evidence of inconsistency and describe its association with different NMA characteristics. METHODS: We updated our collection of NMAs with articles published up to July 2018. We included networks with randomised clinical trials, at least four treatment nodes, at least one closed loop, a dichotomous primary outcome, and available arm-level data. We assessed consistency using the design-by-treatment interaction (DBT) model and testing all the inconsistency parameters globally through the Wald-type chi-squared test statistic. We estimated the prevalence of evidence of inconsistency and its association with different network characteristics (e.g., number of studies, interventions, intervention comparisons, loops). We evaluated the influence of the network characteristics on the DBT p-value via a multivariable regression analysis and the estimated Pearson correlation coefficients. We also evaluated heterogeneity in NMA (consistency) and DBT (inconsistency) random-effects models. RESULTS: We included 201 published NMAs. The p-value of the design-by-treatment interaction (DBT) model was lower than 0.05 in 14% of the networks and lower than 0.10 in 20% of the networks. Networks including many studies and comparing few interventions were more likely to have small DBT p-values (less than 0.10), which is probably because they yielded more precise estimates and power to detect differences between designs was higher. In the presence of inconsistency (DBT p-value lower than 0.10), the consistency model displayed higher heterogeneity than the DBT model. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that inconsistency was more frequent than what would be expected by chance, suggesting that researchers should devote more resources to exploring how to mitigate inconsistency. The results of this study highlight the need to develop strategies to detect inconsistency (because of the relatively high prevalence of evidence of inconsistency in published networks), and particularly in cases where the existing tests have low power

Outcomes of non-invasive diagnostic modalities for the detection of coronary artery disease: network meta-analysis of diagnostic randomised controlled trials

Objective: To evaluate differences in downstream testing, coronary revascularisation, and clinical outcomes following non-invasive diagnostic modalities used to detect coronary artery disease. Design: Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline, Medline in process, Embase, Cochrane Library for clinical trials, PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and Clinicaltrials.gov. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Diagnostic randomised controlled trials comparing non-invasive diagnostic modalities in patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of low risk acute coronary syndrome or stable coronary artery disease. Data synthesis: A random effects network meta-analysis synthesised available evidence from trials evaluating the effect of non-invasive diagnostic modalities on downstream testing and patient oriented outcomes in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Modalities included exercise electrocardiograms, stress echocardiography, single photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging, real time myocardial contrast echocardiography, coronary computed tomographic angiography, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Unpublished outcome data were obtained from 11 trials. Results: 18 trials of patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome (n=11 329) and 12 trials of those with suspected stable coronary artery disease (n=22 062) were included. Among patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome, stress echocardiography, cardiovascular magnetic resonance, and exercise electrocardiograms resulted in fewer invasive referrals for coronary angiography than coronary computed tomographic angiography (odds ratio 0.28 (95% confidence interval 0.14 to 0.57), 0.32 (0.15 to 0.71), and 0.53 (0.28 to 1.00), respectively). There was no effect on the subsequent risk of myocardial infarction, but estimates were imprecise. Heterogeneity and inconsistency were low. In patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease, an initial diagnostic strategy of stress echocardiography or single photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging resulted in fewer downstream tests than coronary computed tomographic angiography (0.24 (0.08 to 0.74) and 0.57 (0.37 to 0.87), respectively). However, exercise electrocardiograms yielded the highest downstream testing rate. Estimates for death and myocardial infarction were imprecise without clear discrimination between strategies. Conclusions: For patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome, an initial diagnostic strategy of stress echocardiography or cardiovascular magnetic resonance is associated with fewer referrals for invasive coronary angiography and revascularisation procedures than non-invasive anatomical testing, without apparent impact on the future risk of myocardial infarction. For suspected stable coronary artery disease, there was no clear discrimination between diagnostic strategies regarding the subsequent need for invasive coronary angiography, and differences in the risk of myocardial infarction cannot be ruled out. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registry no CRD42016049442

The Patterns of High-Level Magnetic Activity Occurring on the Surface of V1285 Aql: The OPEA Model of Flares and DFT Models of Stellar Spots

Statistically analyzing Johnson UBVR observations of V1285 Aql during the three observing seasons, both activity level and behavior of the star are discussed in respect to obtained results. We also discuss the out-of-flare variation due to rotational modulation. Eighty-three flares were detected in the U-band observations of season 2006 . First, depending on statistical analyses using the independent samples t-test, the flares were divided into two classes as the fast and the slow flares. According to the results of the test, there is a difference of about 73 s between the flare-equivalent durations of slow and fast flares. The difference should be the difference mentioned in the theoretical models. Second, using the one-phase exponential association function, the distribution of the flare-equivalent durations versus the flare total durations was modeled. Analyzing the model, some parameters such as plateau, half-life values, mean average of the flare-equivalent durations, maximum flare rise, and total duration times are derived. The plateau value, which is an indicator of the saturation level of white-light flares, was derived as 2.421{\pm}0.058 s in this model, while half-life is computed as 201 s. Analyses showed that observed maximum value of flare total duration is 4641 s, while observed maximum flare rise time is 1817 s. According to these results, although computed energies of the flares occurring on the surface of V1285 Aql are generally lower than those of other stars, the length of its flaring loop can be higher than those of more active stars.Comment: 44 pages, 10 figures, 5 tables, 2011PASP..123..659

Contrôle et lutte contre la fraude du patient européen

Il est des chiffres qui donnent le vertige. Incontestablement, ceux concernant les pertes dues à la fraude et la corruption en matière de soins en font partie. Certaines estimations font en effet état de 56 milliards d'euros perdus annuellement en Europe, ce qui représente près de 80 millions de perte chaque jour et plus de 5% de l'ensemble des budgets nationaux consacrés à la santé (Gee et alii, 2010)

A review of methods for addressing components of interventions in meta-analysis

Many healthcare interventions are complex, consisting of multiple, possibly interacting, components. Several methodological articles addressing complex interventions in the metaanalytical context have been published. We hereby provide an overview of methods used to evaluate the effects of complex interventions with meta-analytical models. We summarized the methodology, highlighted new developments, and described the benefits, drawbacks, and potential challenges of each identified method. We expect meta-analytical methods focusing on components of several multicomponent interventions to become increasingly popular due to recently developed, easy-to-use, software tools that can be used to conduct the relevant analyses. The different meta-analytical methods are illustrated through two examples comparing psychotherapies for panic disorder. Copyright

Allowing for informative missingness in aggregate data meta-analysis with continuous or binary outcomes: Extensions to metamiss

Missing outcome data can invalidate the results of randomized trials and their meta-analysis. However, addressing missing data is often a challenging issue because it requires untestable assumptions. The impact of missing outcome data on the meta-analysis summary effect can be explored by assuming a relationship between the outcome in the observed and the missing participants via an informative missingness parameter. The informative missingness parameters cannot be estimated from the observed data, but they can be specified, with associated uncertainty, using evidence external to the meta-analysis, such as expert opinion. The use of informative missingness parameters in pairwise meta-analysis of aggregate data with binary outcomes has been previously implemented in Stata by the metamiss command. In this article, we present the new command metamiss2, which is an extension of metamiss for binary or continuous data in pairwise or network meta-analysis. The command can be used to explore the robustness of results to different assumptions about the missing data via sensitivity analysis