Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing

Rare case of an adult male Montagu's Harrier Circus pygargus over-summering in West Africa, as revealed by GPS tracking

Over-summering within or near the African wintering range by immature, non-breeding individuals occurs regularly in several species of long-distance migratory raptors, yet the extent of over-summering in Africa by adult birds remains unclear. In this study, we describe a case of an adult Montagu's Harrier over-summering in Africa, as revealed by GPS tracking. By relating detailed knowledge of the bird's movements to remotely sensed environmental data (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI), we show that over-summering in this case was likely related to an exceptionally difficult breeding season the previous year rather than an effect of adverse weather conditions encountered during the winter or a failed attempt to migrate. Various factors are discussed as potential driving forces behind the bird's intra-African movements. Finally, we relate the documented case to a large number of North European Montagu's Harriers studied by telemetry and show that over-summering in Africa by adult individuals is indeed a rare event

Analysis of the Expression of Repetitive DNA Elements in Osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma (OS) is a rare malignant bone tumor. It affects mostly young persons and has poor outcome with the present treatment. No improvement was observed since the introduction of chemotherapy. The better understanding of osteosarcoma development could indicate better management strategy. Repetitive DNA elements were found to play a role in cancer mechanism especially in epithelial tumors but not yet analyzed in osteosarcoma. We conducted the study to analyse the expression profile of repetitive elements (RE) in osteosarcoma. Methods: Fresh bone paired (tumor and normal bone) samples were obtained from excised parts of tumors of 18 patients with osteosarcoma. We performed sequencing of RNA extracted from 36 samples (18 tumor tissues and 18 normal bone for controls), mapped raw reads to the human genome and identified the REs. EdgeR package was used to analyse the difference in expression of REs between osteosarcoma and normal bone. Results: 82 REs were found differentially expressed (FDR < 0.05) between osteosarcoma and normal bone. Out of all significantly changed REs, 35 were upregulated and 47 were downregulated. HERVs (THE1C-int, LTR5, MER57F and MER87B) and satellite elements (HSATII, ALR-alpha) were the most significantly differential expressed elements between osteosarcoma and normal tissues. These results suggest significant impact of REs in the osteosarcoma. The role of REs should be further studied to understand the mechanism they have in the genesis of osteosarcoma

Effects of breeding habitat and field margins on the reproductive performance of Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) on intensive farmland

Field margin management is a common measure employed in Europe to support farmland bird populations. In this study we found and analysed 237 nests of the Skylark Alauda arvensis in the Netherlands over a period of 6 years to determine the effects of arable field margins and breeding crop on nest-level reproductive success. Additionally, the effect of field margins on predation was investigated and food availability in crops and field margins was compared. Neither clutch size, nest survival nor nestling body weight were improved by field margin availability, irrespective of the breeding crop used. However, the choice of breeding crop had important effects. Nestling weight was significantly lower in cereals than in grassland and lucerne, corresponding with the low prey densities present in cereals. Nest survival was lowest in grassland due to frequent silage cutting. Predation rates were highest in cereals but were not affected by field margin proximity. The highest reproductive success was achieved in lucerne, which was mown twice a year and retained a suitable height for breeding throughout the breeding season. We conclude that field margins are not sufficient to maintain a Skylark population in this intensively farmed area. The presumably more subtle effects of increased food availability cannot compensate for the high nest failure rates resulting from agricultural operations and predation. In this and similar areas, the provisioning of safe nesting habitat throughout the breeding season is essential to improve breeding performance. Our research suggests that this can be achieved by reducing the frequency of silage cutting on grassland and by increasing the surface area of lucerne.Conservation Biolog

Thermal Particle Creation in Cosmological Spacetimes: A Stochastic Approach

The stochastic method based on the influence functional formalism introduced in an earlier paper to treat particle creation in near-uniformly accelerated detectors and collapsing masses is applied here to treat thermal and near-thermal radiance in certain types of cosmological expansions. It is indicated how the appearance of thermal radiance in different cosmological spacetimes and in the two apparently distinct classes of black hole and cosmological spacetimes can be understood under a unifying conceptual and methodological framework.Comment: 17 pages, revtex (aps, eqsecnum), submitted to PRD, April 199

Inflationary Reheating in Grand Unified Theories

Grand unified theories may display multiply interacting fields with strong coupling dynamics. This poses two new problems: (1) What is the nature of chaotic reheating after inflation, and (2) How is reheating sensitive to the mass spectrum of these theories ? We answer these questions in two interesting limiting cases and demonstrate an increased efficiency of reheating which strongly enhances non-thermal topological defect formation, including monopoles and domain walls. Nevertheless, the large fluctuations may resolve this monopole problem via a modified Dvali-Liu-Vachaspati mechanism in which non-thermal destabilsation of discrete symmetries occurs at reheating.Comment: 4 pages, 5 ps figures - 1 colour, Revtex. Further (colour & 3-D) figures available from http://www.sissa.it/~bassett/reheating/ . Matched to version to appear in Phys. Rev. let

Sphagnum bleaching:Bicarbonate ‘toxicity’ and tolerance for seven Sphagnum species

Growth and functioning of Sphagnum mosses are closely linked to water level and chemistry. Sphagnum mosses occur in wet, generally acidic conditions, and when buffered, alkaline water is known to negatively impact Sphagnum. The effects of time, dose and species-specific responses of buffered, alkaline water on Sphagnum are largely unknown. We investigated the effects of bicarbonate and calcium on the survival, growth and physiological functioning of seven Sphagnum species occurring in contrasting environments, from raised bogs to (rich) fens. Mosses were submerged in different concentrations of bicarbonate and calcium solutions for 10 weeks under climate-controlled circumstances. After 2 weeks, all species exposed to the high bicarbonate treatment (2.0 mM) showed severe potassium leakage and swift discoloration. In contrast, species showed differential responses to the intermediate bicarbonate treatment (0.8 mM), some with a later onset of potassium leakage. S. squarrosum, S. teres & S. contortum generally persisted the longest, with all species dying after 6 to 10 weeks. Calcium alone, in contrast, negatively affected S. squarrosum, S. teres & S. contortum, causing discoloration and potassium leakage. Our study shows enrichment with bicarbonate, but not calcium, is detrimental for most Sphagnum species tested. A mechanistic model was developed that is consistent with dose and duration dependence and the species specificity. Future conservation and restoration measures for Sphagnum-dominated habitats and Sphagnum farming (cultivation, production and harvest of Sphagnum moss biomass) should limit flooding with bicarbonate-rich waters while investigating new management options, like acidifying surface waters to lower bicarbonate levels

Integrated Assessment of Flood Mitigation Options: GRUMP - Gawler River UNHARMED Mitigation Project

Hedwig van Delden, Roel Vanhout, Graeme Riddell, Elco Koks, Douglas Radford, Graeme C. Dandy, Eike Hamers, Holger R. Maier, Aaron C. Zecchi

Project Summary and Evaluation: GRUMP - Gawler River UNHARMED Mitigation Project

Hedwig van Delden, Roel Vanhout, Graeme Riddell, Elco Koks, Douglas Radford, Graeme C. Dandy, Eike Hamers, Holger R. Maier, Aaron C. Zecchi

Pathways Document for Integrated Flood Risk Management: GRUMP - Gawler River UNHARMED Mitigation Project

Hedwig van Delden, Roel Vanhout, Graeme Riddell, Elco Koks, Douglas Radford, Graeme C. Dandy, Eike Hamers, Holger R. Maier, Aaron C. Zecchi