Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

International audienceThis study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research perspectives on a New Zealand example

Deep Neural Networks for Energy and Position Reconstruction in EXO-200

We apply deep neural networks (DNN) to data from the EXO-200 experiment. In the studied cases, the DNN is able to reconstruct the relevant parameters - total energy and position - directly from raw digitized waveforms, with minimal exceptions. For the first time, the developed algorithms are evaluated on real detector calibration data. The accuracy of reconstruction either reaches or exceeds what was achieved by the conventional approaches developed by EXO-200 over the course of the experiment. Most existing DNN approaches to event reconstruction and classification in particle physics are trained on Monte Carlo simulated events. Such algorithms are inherently limited by the accuracy of the simulation. We describe a unique approach that, in an experiment such as EXO-200, allows to successfully perform certain reconstruction and analysis tasks by training the network on waveforms from experimental data, either reducing or eliminating the reliance on the Monte Carlo.Comment: Accepted version. 33 pages, 28 figure

Search for nucleon decays with EXO-200

A search for instability of nucleons bound in $^{136}$Xe nuclei is reported with 223 kg$\cdot$yr exposure of $^{136}$Xe in the EXO-200 experiment. Lifetime limits of 3.3$\times 10^{23}$ and 1.9$\times 10^{23}$ yrs are established for nucleon decay to $^{133}$Sb and $^{133}$Te, respectively. These are the most stringent to date, exceeding the prior decay limits by a factor of 9 and 7, respectively

Measurement of the Spectral Shape of the beta-decay of 137Xe to the Ground State of 137Cs in EXO-200 and Comparison with Theory

We report on a comparison between the theoretically predicted and experimentally measured spectra of the first-forbidden non-unique $\beta$-decay transition ^{137}\textrm{Xe}(7/2^-)\to\,^{137}\textrm{Cs}(7/2^+). The experimental data were acquired by the EXO-200 experiment during a deployment of an AmBe neutron source. The ultra-low background environment of EXO-200, together with dedicated source deployment and analysis procedures, allowed for collection of a pure sample of the decays, with an estimated signal-to-background ratio of more than 99-to-1 in the energy range from 1075 to 4175 keV. In addition to providing a rare and accurate measurement of the first-forbidden non-unique $\beta$-decay shape, this work constitutes a novel test of the calculated electron spectral shapes in the context of the reactor antineutrino anomaly and spectral bump.Comment: Version as accepted by PR

Characterization of an Ionization Readout Tile for nEXO

A new design for the anode of a time projection chamber, consisting of a charge-detecting "tile", is investigated for use in large scale liquid xenon detectors. The tile is produced by depositing 60 orthogonal metal charge-collecting strips, 3~mm wide, on a 10~\si{\cm} $\times$ 10~\si{\cm} fused-silica wafer. These charge tiles may be employed by large detectors, such as the proposed tonne-scale nEXO experiment to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay. Modular by design, an array of tiles can cover a sizable area. The width of each strip is small compared to the size of the tile, so a Frisch grid is not required. A grid-less, tiled anode design is beneficial for an experiment such as nEXO, where a wire tensioning support structure and Frisch grid might contribute radioactive backgrounds and would have to be designed to accommodate cycling to cryogenic temperatures. The segmented anode also reduces some degeneracies in signal reconstruction that arise in large-area crossed-wire time projection chambers. A prototype tile was tested in a cell containing liquid xenon. Very good agreement is achieved between the measured ionization spectrum of a $^{207}$Bi source and simulations that include the microphysics of recombination in xenon and a detailed modeling of the electrostatic field of the detector. An energy resolution $\sigma/E$=5.5\% is observed at 570~\si{keV}, comparable to the best intrinsic ionization-only resolution reported in literature for liquid xenon at 936~V/\si{cm}.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, as publishe

Sensitivity and discovery potential of the proposed nEXO experiment to neutrinoless double beta decay

The next-generation Enriched Xenon Observatory (nEXO) is a proposed experiment to search for neutrinoless double beta ($0\nu\beta\beta$) decay in $^{136}$Xe with a target half-life sensitivity of approximately $10^{28}$ years using $5\times10^3$ kg of isotopically enriched liquid-xenon in a time projection chamber. This improvement of two orders of magnitude in sensitivity over current limits is obtained by a significant increase of the $^{136}$Xe mass, the monolithic and homogeneous configuration of the active medium, and the multi-parameter measurements of the interactions enabled by the time projection chamber. The detector concept and anticipated performance are presented based upon demonstrated realizable background rates.Comment: v2 as publishe