ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH: CASE OF US-EGYPT-IRRI COLLABORATIVE PROJECT ON THE GENERATION OF NEW RICE TECHNOLOGIES

Agricultural research managers and scientists are under increasing pressure to demonstrate the efficient and socially-effective use of funds spent on agricultural R&D. These pressures stem from heightened expectations of transparency and accountability in the use of public funds, as well as from the growing demand for evidence of impact on target social groups and environmental services. Finally, advances in agricultural biotechnology research and the ensuing dialogue about the desirability of using biotechnology tools for increasing food production in developing countries have highlighted the need to assess the impacts of international agricultural research in the US, the developing countries, and the international agricultural research centers (IARCs). The US-Egypt ATUT project, funding involves collaborative research among plant breeders, molecular geneticists, and other agricultural scientists in the US, Egypt and IRRI. ATUT rice research accelerated the utilization of three methods for improving the speed and reliability of the screening and evaluation process for identifying salt resistant varieties: shuttle breeding, anther culture and marker-assisted selection. ATUT initiated the application of Marker Assisted Selection (MAS) technology for screening Egyptian rice germplasm. Other ATUT rice technologies in the pipeline have various levels of AATUTness in their research and development. Some of the varieties to be released starting 2003 such as short duration HYVs, will have benefitted less directly from ATUT funding and scientific collaboration. Others- such as hybrid rice varieties will have been very significantly shaped by ATUT. The DREAM model under IFPRI's Global and Regional Program on Agricultural Science and Technology Policy, is used to assess the potential economic benefit of technology outputs for rice, under a range of likely adoption, market and trade scenarios. The simulation model, based on economic surplus theory, uses data and parameters from interviews with scientists, policy makers on the impact and adoption of technology. For this study, ex-ante simulations of the most likely range of outcomes with and without the innovations from ATUT investments. Analyzing the impact of technical change (a simulation over a specified number of years) has provided year-by year estimates of changes in: prices, quantities produced, consumed and traded, levels of adoption, economic benefits to consumers, economic benefits to adopters or losses (non-adopters) to producers. For US and IRRI benefits: Enhanced germplasm pool, stock of knowledge and facilities, and better informed scientists. US scientists in California and Arkansas benefit More integrated into the international rice research community. Gross benefits are estimated for governorates, by producers and consumers, by saline and normal soils, for 1997 to 2017 (end of GoE's current strategic horizon) discounted to 1997 US$. Producers in normal soils derive higher benefits than those in saline soils, some governorates reap more of the producer benefits than others; rural consumers benefit more than urban consumers. Consumer benefits are also estimated for importers of Egyptian rice such as Turkey, Sudan and aggregated Arabian countries. Cost of rice R&D and technology transfer will be measured to derive the IRR and B/C ratios.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Recovery of injured organisms inoculated into ground beef at various cooking temperatures

The objective of this study was to determine whether sublethally injured organisms could be recovered from a substrate of ground beef heated to three different temperatures. Three organisms, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Salmonella enteritidis, were injected uniformly into lots of ground beef and allowed to propagate at 4°C over three days of storage. Each day samples were procured and subjected to one of the three cooking temperatures, 60.0°C, 65.6°C or 71.TC. After each heat treatment the patties were analyzed for total viable population (injured and unin-jured organisms), injured organisms, and aerobic plate count. In addition, counts were obtained on the raw ground beef over the three days of storage at 4°C. The data obtained were subjected to analysis of variance. Recovery of sublethally injured Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus occurred at all three temperatures, but the variation was insignificant. Recovery of sublethally injured Salmonella enteritidis showed significance in storage-temperature interaction. Survival of total bacterial population, after heat exposure, showed only significance in replication. With the third set of samples, storage time had a significant effect, as well as temperature. Over three days storage, the number of Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus did not change significantly. The counts of Salmonella enteritidis decreased through-out storage. The percentages of Escherichia coli and Salmonella enteritidis killed continually decreased as the cooking temperature increased. The percentage of Staphylococcus aureus appeared to follow no obvious trend

Energy and Charged Particle Flow in 10.8 A GeV/c Au+Au Collisions

Experimental results and a detailed analysis are presented of the transverse energy and charged particle azimuthal distributions measured by the E877 collaboration for different centralities of Au+Au collisions at a beam momentum of 10.8 A GeV/c. The anisotropy of these distributions is studied with respect to the reaction plane reconstructed on an event-by-event basis using the transverse energy distribution measured by calorimeters. Results are corrected for the reaction plane resolution. For semicentral events we observe directed flow signals of up to ten percent. We observe a stronger anisotropy for slow charged particles. For both the charged particle and transverse energy distributions we observe a small but non zero elliptic anisotropy with the major axis pointing into the reaction plane. Combining the information on transverse energy and charged particle flow we obtain information on the flow of nucleons and pions. The data are compared to event generators and the need to introduce a mean field or nucleon-nucleon potential is discussed.Comment: RevTex, 25 pages, 13 figures included as one Postscript file, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Land, water, and agriculture in Egypt: the economywide impact of policy reform

Land reform Egypt., Water in agriculture Egypt., Egypt Economic policy.,

Price competitiveness and variability in Egyptian cotton: effects of sectoral and economywide policies

This paper examines the role of price incentives in the observed decline in cotton production during the 1980s and in the apparent improvement in recent years. The following determinants (in an accounting sense) of the changes in the relative producer price of cotton during 1980-92 are quantified: (1) changes in the foreign price; (2) changes in the real exchange rate; and (3) changes in nominal protection and the marketing margin. An estimated model of the real exchange rate for Egypt is used to provide a further decomposition of the changes in the relative cotton price that isolates the effect of policy-related factors. The comparative effects of sectoral and economywide policies are analyzed based on three alternative policy regimes in terms of the average price and variability of annual price levels over the period 1971-1992. Government interventions are found to reduce both the long-run price incentive and short-run price variability in Egyptian cotton. Various approaches in dealing with commodity pice instability in the context of a more open trade regime are indicated.Cotton production Egypt., Price regulation.,

The p97-UBXD8 complex regulates ER-Mitochondria contact sites by altering membrane lipid saturation and composition

The intimate association between the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and mitochondrial membranes at ER-Mitochondria contact sites (ERMCS) is a platform for critical cellular processes, particularly lipid synthesis. How contacts are remodeled and the impact of altered contacts on lipid metabolism remains poorly understood. We show that the p97 AAA-ATPase and its adaptor ubiquitin-X domain adaptor 8 (UBXD8) regulate ERMCS. The p97-UBXD8 complex localizes to contacts and its loss increases contacts in a manner that is dependent on p97 catalytic activity. Quantitative proteomics and lipidomics of ERMCS demonstrates alterations in proteins regulating lipid metabolism and a significant change in membrane lipid saturation upon UBXD8 deletion. Loss of p97-UBXD8 increased membrane lipid saturation via SREBP1 and the lipid desaturase SCD1. Aberrant contacts can be rescued by unsaturated fatty acids or overexpression of SCD1. We find that the SREBP1-SCD1 pathway is negatively impacted in the brains of mice with p97 mutations that cause neurodegeneration. We propose that contacts are exquisitely sensitive to alterations to membrane lipid composition and saturation

Active Tension Network model suggests an exotic mechanical state realized in epithelial tissues.

Mechanical interactions play a crucial role in epithelial morphogenesis, yet understanding the complex mechanisms through which stress and deformation affect cell behavior remains an open problem. Here we formulate and analyze the Active Tension Network (ATN) model, which assumes that the mechanical balance of cells within a tissue is dominated by cortical tension and introduces tension-dependent active remodeling of the cortex. We find that ATNs exhibit unusual mechanical properties. Specifically, an ATN behaves as a fluid at short times, but at long times supports external tension like a solid. Furthermore, an ATN has an extensively degenerate equilibrium mechanical state associated with a discrete conformal - "isogonal" - deformation of cells. The ATN model predicts a constraint on equilibrium cell geometries, which we demonstrate to approximately hold in certain epithelial tissues. We further show that isogonal modes are observed in the fruit y embryo, accounting for the striking variability of apical areas of ventral cells and helping understand the early phase of gastrulation. Living matter realizes new and exotic mechanical states, the study of which helps to understand biological phenomena

Identification of the protein kinases Pyk3 and Phg2 as regulators of the STATc-mediated response to hyperosmolarity

Cellular adaptation to changes in environmental osmolarity is crucial for cell survival. In Dictyostelium, STATc is a key regulator of the transcriptional response to hyperosmotic stress. Its phosphorylation and consequent activation is controlled by two signaling branches, one cGMP- and the other Ca(2+)-dependent, of which many signaling components have yet to be identified. The STATc stress signalling pathway feeds back on itself by upregulating the expression of STATc and STATc-regulated genes. Based on microarray studies we chose two tyrosine-kinase like proteins, Pyk3 and Phg2, as possible modulators of STATc phosphorylation and generated single and double knock-out mutants to them. Transcriptional regulation of STATc and STATc dependent genes was disturbed in pyk3(-), phg2(-), and pyk3(-)/phg2(-) cells. The absence of Pyk3 and/or Phg2 resulted in diminished or completely abolished increased transcription of STATc dependent genes in response to sorbitol, 8-Br-cGMP and the Ca(2+) liberator BHQ. Also, phospho-STATc levels were significantly reduced in pyk3(-) and phg2(-) cells and even further decreased in pyk3(-)/phg2(-) cells. The reduced phosphorylation was mirrored by a significant delay in nuclear translocation of GFP-STATc. The protein tyrosine phosphatase 3 (PTP3), which dephosphorylates and inhibits STATc, is inhibited by stress-induced phosphorylation on S448 and S747. Use of phosphoserine specific antibodies showed that Phg2 but not Pyk3 is involved in the phosphorylation of PTP3 on S747. In pull-down assays Phg2 and PTP3 interact directly, suggesting that Phg2 phosphorylates PTP3 on S747 in vivo. Phosphorylation of S448 was unchanged in phg2(-) cells. We show that Phg2 and an, as yet unknown, S448 protein kinase are responsible for PTP3 phosphorylation and hence its inhibition, and that Pyk3 is involved in the regulation of STATc by either directly or indirectly activating it. Our results add further complexities to the regulation of STATc, which presumably ensure its optimal activation in response to different environmental cues

A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula