Over-Fitting in Model Selection with Gaussian Process Regression

Model selection in Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) seeks to determine the optimal values of the hyper-parameters governing the covariance function, which allows flexible customization of the GP to the problem at hand. An oft-overlooked issue that is often encountered in the model process is over-fitting the model selection criterion, typically the marginal likelihood. The over-fitting in machine learning refers to the fitting of random noise present in the model selection criterion in addition to features improving the generalisation performance of the statistical model. In this paper, we construct several Gaussian process regression models for a range of high-dimensional datasets from the UCI machine learning repository. Afterwards, we compare both MSE on the test dataset and the negative log marginal likelihood (nlZ), used as the model selection criteria, to find whether the problem of overfitting in model selection also affects GPR. We found that the squared exponential covariance function with Automatic Relevance Determination (SEard) is better than other kernels including squared exponential covariance function with isotropic distance measure (SEiso) according to the nLZ, but it is clearly not the best according to MSE on the test data, and this is an indication of over-fitting problem in model selection

On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity

In a recent issue of this journal, Loehle (2014) presents a "minimal model" for estimating climate sensitivity, identical to that previously published by Loehle and Scafetta (2011). The novelty in the more recent paper lies in the straightforward calculation of an estimate of transient climate response based on the model and an estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity derived therefrom, via a flawed methodology. We demonstrate that the Loehle and Scafetta model systematically underestimates the transient climate response, due to a number of unsupportable assumptions regarding the climate system. Once the flaws in Loehle and Scafetta's model are addressed, the estimates of transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the model are entirely consistent with those obtained from general circulation models, and indeed exclude the possibility of low climate sensitivity, directly contradicting the principal conclusion drawn by Loehle. Further, we present an even more parsimonious model for estimating climate sensitivity. Our model is based on observed changes in radiative forcings, and is therefore constrained by physics, unlike the Loehle model, which is little more than a curve-fitting exercise

Rewarding Subjective Effects of the NMDAR Antagonist Nitrous Oxide (Laughing Gas) Are Moderated by Impulsivity and Depressive Symptoms in Healthy Volunteers

BACKGROUND: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an anaesthetic gas with both therapeutic and abuse potential. As an NMDAR antagonist, its effects are expected to resemble those of the prototypical NMDAR antagonist, ketamine. Here, we examine the subjective rewarding effects of N2O using measures previously employed in studies of ketamine. We also test for moderation of these effects by bipolar phenotype, depressive symptoms, and impulsivity. METHODS: Healthy volunteers were randomised to either 50% N2O (n=40) or medical air (n=40). Self-reported rewarding (liking and wanting), and alcohol-like effects were assessed pre-, peri- and post-inhalation. RESULTS: Effect sizes for the various rewarding/alcohol-like effects of N2O were generally similar to those reported in studies of moderate-dose ketamine. Impulsivity moderated the subjective reinforcing (liking) effects of inhaled gas, while depressive symptoms moderated motivational (wanting [more]) effects. However, depression and impulsivity had opposite directional influences, such that higher impulsivity was associated with higher N2O-liking, and higher depression, with lower N2O-wanting. CONCLUSIONS: To the extent that static (versus longitudinal) subjective rewarding effects are a reliable indicator of future problematic drug use, our findings suggests that impulsivity and depression may respectively predispose and protect against N2O abuse. Future studies should examine if these moderators are relevant for other NMDAR antagonists, including ketamine, and novel ketamine-like therapeutics and recreational drugs. Similarities between moderate-dose N2O and moderate-dose ketamine in the intensity of certain subjective effects suggest that N2O may, at least partially, substitute for ketamine as a safe and easily-implemented experimental tool for probing reward-related NMDAR function and dysfunction in humans

Pilot Evaluation of an Online Weight Management Programme

This intervention examined the efficacy of a six-week online weight loss programme. Students and staff of a third level institution (n=183) were recruited to the programme which provided individualised dietary advice for weight loss. Eighty-five participants (mean age 29.7 years, mean BMI 28.9kg/m2, 33% male) met the minimum inclusion criterion of logging on to the study website at least twice. All participants who completed the full six-week programme lost weight (n=31), with significant reductions in mean weight (2.8kg), BMI (0.9kg/m2) and waist circumference (4.1cm) observed between the start and end of the programme (all P5% of their bodyweight, with reductions in biscuit and alcohol consumption being most predictive of weight loss. These findings suggest that individualised online dietary advice is effective in achieving short-term weight loss, especially in males

Correlated variability of Mkn 421 at X-ray and TeV wavelengths on timescales of hours

Mkn 421 was observed for about two days with BeppoSAX, prior to and partly overlapping the start of a 1 week continuous exposure with ASCA in April 1998, as part of a world-wide multiwavelength campaign. A pronounced, well defined, flare observed in X-rays was also observed simultaneously at TeV energies by the Whipple Observatory's 10 m gamma-ray telescope. These data provide the first evidence that the X-ray and TeV intensities are well correlated on time-scales of hours.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, presented at the VERITAS Workshop on the TeV Astrophysics of Extragalactic Object

‘I’d be proud to spend the sacred foreign aid budget on our poor pensioners’: Representations of macro aid resourcing in the Irish, UK and US print-media during the economic crisis, 2008–2011

The news-media has been identified as an influence on donor nations’ overseas aid allocations, acting as a site where decisions are justified to ‘domestic constituencies’ and through which resistance is mobilised. Mediated pressures on aid allocations amplified between 2008 and 2011 in three donor countries experiencing domestic economic difficulties: Ireland, the UK and the US. This study suggests that each country’s print-media positioned the macro resourcing of aid primarily as an inward concern, neglected recipient country needs, and made weak connections to international policy frameworks to benchmark, contextualise and rationalise aid allocations. The research suggests that the explanatory limitations of the countries’ news-models in communicating the processes and rationales underpinning macro aid resourcing may be a factor in sustaining a knowledge and legitimacy deficit among domestic publics for international aid agreements

Hercules X-1: Pulsed gamma-rays detected above 150 GeV

The 1.24 second binary pulsar Her X-1, first observed in X-rays in 1971 by UHURU has now been seen as a sporadic gamma ray source from 1 TeV up to at least 500 TeV. In addition, reprocessed optical and infrared pulses are seen from the companion star HZ Herculis. Thus measurements of the Her X-1/HZ Herculis system span 15 decades in energy, rivaling both the Crab pulsar and Cygnus X-3 in this respect for a discrete galactic source

Locating very high energy gamma ray sources with arc minute accuracy

The angular accuracy of gamma-ray detectors is intrinsically limited by the physical processes involved in photon detection. Although a number of point-like sources were detected by the COS-B satellite, only two were unambiguously identified by time signature with counterparts at longer wavelengths. By taking advantage of the extended longitudinal structure of Very High Energy gamma-ray showers, measurements in the TeV energy range can pinpoint source coordinates to arc minute accuracy. This was demonstrated using Cerenkov air shower imaging techniques. With two telescopes in coincidence, the individual event circular probable error will be 0.13 deg. The half-cone angle of the field of view is effectively 1 deg