The Archer-Shaw Social Security Plan: Laying the Groundwork for Another S&L Crisis

The Social Security reform plan proposed by Reps. Bill Archer (R-Tex.) and Clay Shaw (R-Fla.), chairmen, respectively, of the House Ways and Means Committee and its Subcommittee on Social Security, is a compromise between a Clinton administration plan to let the government invest workers' payroll taxes in the market and congressional proposals to let individuals invest their payroll taxes in personal market-based accounts. Government investment has been criticized for the possibility of political influence on investment decisions, while personal accounts face attack for making individuals shoulder the burden of market risk. The Archer-Shaw plan is an attempt to satisfy critics of both approaches. The Archer-Shaw plan would let individuals make investment decisions, thereby reducing the likelihood of political influence, but the government would be required to protect workers against any losses. The plan's proposal to privatize profit and socialize risk resembles the incentive structure that led to the 1980s savings and loan crisis, which cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars. That incentive structure creates what economists call "moral hazard" and could again lead to large taxpayer liabilities if allowed to take root in the Social Security system

Entitlements: Not Just a Health Care Problem

[Excerpt] “A new consensus on entitlement reform has developed in Washington: rising per-capita health care spending is the only real crisis besetting the government‘s entitlement programs, while America‘s aging population and Social Security play minor roles at best. Some cite this view to shift the policy emphasis from entitlement cost control to the restructuring of the U.S. health sector, including private health care. But this new consensus is flawed. Using standard accounting practices and including all major government entitlement programs, population aging will play an equal role with health care cost growth over the next seventy-five years and a significantly larger role than health spending over the next few decades. While rising health care spending is indeed a pressing issue, discounting population aging leaves out half of the problem and ignores half of the potential solutions.

Solar sail formation flying for deep-space remote sensing

In this paper we consider how 'near' term solar sails can be used in formation above the ecliptic plane to provide platforms for accurate and continuous remote sensing of the polar regions of the Earth. The dynamics of the solar sail elliptical restricted three-body problem (ERTBP) are exploited for formation flying by identifying a family of periodic orbits above the ecliptic plane. Moreover, we find a family of 1 year periodic orbits where each orbit corresponds to a unique solar sail orientation using a numerical continuation method. It is found through a number of example numerical simulations that this family of orbits can be used for solar sail formation flying. Furthermore, it is illustrated numerically that Solar Sails can provide stable formation keeping platforms that are robust to injection errors. In addition practical trajectories that pass close to the Earth and wind onto these periodic orbits above the ecliptic are identified

Financial Advisors' Role in Influencing Social Security Claiming

For millions of Americans, financial advisors are a trusted source of financial and retirement preparation information. This includes providing advice and information on Social Security benefits, a critical component of most Americans’ retirement finances. To gain greater insight into what financial advisors say to their clients about Social Security, an online survey of over 400 professional financial advisors was conducted in the Spring of 2011. The results reveal that a majority of advisors believe that they are responsible for educating their clients on the role Social Security will play in their retirement income. Moreover, advisors have the ability to influence their clients’ decisions about when to claim their Social Security retirement benefits. Three-quarters advise the majority of their clients on when to claim. In addition, the study finds that the Social Security Administration (SSA) is the leading and preferred source of information and education for financial advisors and their clients. Over half of advisors say it is a major source of Social Security-related information, more than any other source. However, advisors are critical of the job SSA does in educating advisors and the public, and are interested in additional resources from the Agency. Financial advisors also indicate that the financial services companies they work with could improve their communication and education efforts as it relates to Social Security. The research findings uncover a need for improved methods of educating and disseminating information to financial advisors and the public on Social Security.

Does abortion reduce self-esteem and life satisfaction?

PurposeThis study aims to assess the effects of obtaining an abortion versus being denied an abortion on self-esteem and life satisfaction.MethodsWe present the first 2.5 years of a 5-year longitudinal telephone-interview study that follows 956 women who sought an abortion from 30 facilities across the USA. We examine the self-esteem and life satisfaction trajectories of women who sought and received abortions just under the facility's gestational age limit, of women who sought and received abortions in their first trimester of pregnancy, and of women who sought abortions just beyond the facility gestational limit and were denied an abortion. We use adjusted mixed effects linear regression analyses to assess whether the trajectories of women who sought and obtained an abortion differ from those who were denied one.ResultsWomen denied an abortion initially reported lower self-esteem and life satisfaction than women who sought and obtained an abortion. For all study groups, except those who obtained first trimester abortions, self-esteem and life satisfaction improved over time. The initially lower levels of self-esteem and life satisfaction among women denied an abortion improved more rapidly reaching similar levels as those obtaining abortions at 6 months to one year after abortion seeking. For women obtaining first trimester abortions, initially higher levels of life satisfaction remained steady over time.ConclusionsThere is no evidence that abortion harms women's self-esteem or life satisfaction in the short term

How the Coronavirus Could Permanently Cut Near-Retirees’ Social Security Benefits

As a group, retirees are more financially insulated from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic than are most other demographic groups in the United States. Yet due to how the Social Security benefit formula interacts with the sharp economic downturn due to the Coronavirus, some groups of near-retirees are likely to suffer substantial permanent reductions to their Social Security retirement benefits. Assuming a 15 percent decline in the Social Security Administration\u27s measure of economywide average wages in 2020, a middle-income worker born in 1960 could have his annual Social Security benefits in retirement reduced by around 13 percent, with losses over the retirement period in excess of $70,000. Methods of addressing this problem are discussed, including both ad hoc adjustments applying only to affected cohorts, and also permanent changes to the benefit formula to prevent similar benefit “notches” from occurring in the future

How Much Should the Poor Save for Retirement? Data and Simulations on Retirement Income Adequacy among Low-earning Households

Both policymakers and members of the public are concerned regarding the adequacy of U.S. households’ retirement savings. In response, proposals have been made to expand Social Security benefits and to establish state government-run retirement plans for private sector employees. In both cases, the largest effects would be on low-earning households, who currently have low rates of retirement plan coverage and participation and who rely heavily upon Social Security benefits in retirement. However, there has been little systematic analysis of the retirement saving needs of low-earning households other to point out that they currently save little. But this leaves open the possibility that low savings are appropriate given Social Security’s progressive benefits. I explore these questions in two ways. First, I present a variety of data on the retirement saving and retirement incomes of low-earning households. While these households save little, their retirement incomes have risen steadily over the past decades and their poverty rates dropped significantly, seemingly as a result of rising real Social Security benefits. Low-income retiree express less satisfaction with the adequacy of their retirement incomes than other retirees, but their self-assessed retirement income adequacy has increased in recent years. Second, I present a simple model to calculate the household wealth and saving rates necessary for stylized earners to achieve income-specific retirement income replacement rate targets, net of scheduled Social Security benefits. For very low earners, roughly the poorest quintile of the earning distribution, little savings are necessary on top of Social Security. For earners above that level saving requirements increase, but are likely achievable so long as an earner has access to a retirement plan and participates in it

A Statistical Investigation of Stock Market Activity and Instances of Financial Crime

This project aims to identify a possible statistical relationship between the stock market and incidences of financial crime in Illinois, Texas, and Utah through big data analysis techniques using data from the FBI’s Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) database. By analyzing the occurrences of financial crime by location, year, and type in relation to the S&P 500’s percent change in close price on the first day of the calendar year, it will be possible to determine if a statistical relationship exists between the two. In addition, regression analysis was performed in order to predict financial crime incidence using stock market prices

Retirement Replacement Rates: What and How

Replacement rates compare retirement income to pre-retirement earnings. They are used both by financing advisors in advising households on how much to save for retirement, and by policymakers who wish to assess the adequacy of retirement saving in the population. But in recent years, there has been renewed discussion of how replacement rates should be calculated. I discuss three topics in this current debate. First, should policymakers be presented with replacement rates based upon stylized workers or using administrative or microsimulation data? Second, should the denominator of the replacement rate calculation—pre-retirement earnings—be adjusted for the growth of prices or the growth of economy-wide wages? And third, should replacement rates incorporate a family-size adjustment to account for how having children affects parents’ need to save for retirement? I illustrate the effects of these methodological choices using a microsimulation model of Social Security benefits and employer-sponsored pensions. The results suggest that much of the disagreement over whether Americans face a ‘retirement challenge’ or a ‘retirement crisis’ stems not from differing estimates of how much income American retirees will have, but of how much income they will need to maintain their pre-retirement standards of living

Resolving Canada-U.S. Trade Disputes in Agriculture and Forestry: Lessons from Lumber

Prominent trade disputes between Canada and the U.S. involve agriculture and forestry, with lack of transparency caused by Canadian non-market institutions a source of U.S. objections. Though there has been a recent flurry of activity in the binational dispute resolution panel on Canadian exports of wheat, one of every six panels since 1989 has involved softwood lumber. We examine lessons from the lumber dispute to shed light on U.S. objections to the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB). We argue that U.S. lumber lobbyists will continue to use perceived Canadian institutional obscurity to keep pressure on policymakers, while the CWB system enables similar agricultural interests in to agitate for trade sanctions. Traditional strategies such as dispute resolution boards, appeals to the WTO, and bilateral policy reform can only buy Canada time – new strategies are needed if Canada is to maintain sovereignty over its trade institutions.