Avoiding selection bias in gravitational wave astronomy

When searching for gravitational waves in the data from ground-based gravitational wave detectors it is common to use a detection threshold to reduce the number of background events which are unlikely to be the signals of interest. However, imposing such a threshold will also discard some real signals with low amplitude, which can potentially bias any inferences drawn from the population of detected signals. We show how this selection bias is naturally avoided by using the full information from the search, considering both the selected data and our ignorance of the data that are thrown away, and considering all relevant signal and noise models. This approach produces unbiased estimates of parameters even in the presence of false alarms and incomplete data. This can be seen as an extension of previous methods into the high false rate regime where we are able to show that the quality of parameter inference can be optimised by lowering thresholds and increasing the false alarm rate.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

An exploration of parents’ preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment

Background: An increased awareness of patients’ and parents’ care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents’ preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).<p></p> Methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents’ monetary valuation of health and service improvements.<p></p> Results: Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents’ preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents’ estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05.<p></p> Conclusions: In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents’ preferences.<p></p&gt

Observation of Crossover from Ballistic to Diffusion Regime for Excimer Molecules in Superfluid 4^4He

We have measured the temperature dependence of the time of flight of helium excimer molecules He2* in superfluid 4He and find that the molecules behave ballistically below 100mK and exhibit Brownian motion above 200 mK. In the intermediate temperature range the transport cannot be described by either of the models.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, submitted to the Proceedings of the International Conference on Quantum Fluids and Solids 201

Detection of a red supergiant progenitor star of a type II-plateau supernova

We present the discovery of a red supergiant star that exploded as supernova 2003gd in the nearby spiral galaxy M74. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Gemini Telescope imaged this galaxy 6 to 9 months before the supernova explosion and subsequent HST images confirm the positional coincidence of the supernova with a single,resolved star which is an 8 +4/-2 solar mass red supergiant. This confirms both stellar evolution models and supernova theories which predict that type II-Plateau supernovae have cool red supergiants as their immediate progenitor stars.Comment: Accepted for publication in Science, supporting online material available at http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/~sjs/sn2003gd

Hadronic Regge Trajectories: Problems and Approaches

We scrutinized hadronic Regge trajectories in a framework of two different models --- string and potential. Our results are compared with broad spectrum of existing theoretical quark models and all experimental data from PDG98. It was recognized that Regge trajectories for mesons and baryons are not straight and parallel lines in general in the current resonance region both experimentally and theoretically, but very often have appreciable curvature, which is flavor-dependent. For a set of baryon Regge trajectories this fact is well described in the considered potential model. The standard string models predict linear trajectories at high angular momenta J with some form of nonlinearity at low J.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, LaTe

Dynamics of defect formation

A dynamic symmetry-breaking transition with noise and inertia is analyzed. Exact solution of the linearized equation that describes the critical region allows precise calculation (exponent and prefactor) of the number of defects produced as a function of the rate of increase of the critical parameter. The procedure is valid in both the overdamped and underdamped limits. In one space dimension, we perform quantitative comparison with numerical simulations of the nonlinear nonautonomous stochastic partial differential equation and report on signatures of underdamped dynamics.Comment: 4 pages, LaTeX, 4 figures. Submitted to Physical Revie

Defect Formation and Critical Dynamics in the Early Universe

We study the nonequilibrium dynamics leading to the formation of topological defects in a symmetry-breaking phase transition of a quantum scalar field with \lambda\Phi^4 self-interaction in a spatially flat, radiation-dominated Friedmann-Robertson-Walker Universe. The quantum field is initially in a finite-temperature symmetry-restored state and the phase transition develops as the Universe expands and cools. We present a first-principles, microscopic approach in which the nonperturbative, nonequilibrium dynamics of the quantum field is derived from the two-loop, two-particle-irreducible closed-time-path effective action. We numerically solve the dynamical equations for the two-point function and we identify signatures of topological defects in the infrared portion of the momentum-space power spectrum. We find that the density of topological defects formed after the phase transition scales as a power law with the expansion rate of the Universe. We calculate the equilibrium critical exponents of the correlation length and relaxation time for this model and show that the power law exponent of the defect density, for both overdamped and underdamped evolution, is in good agreement with the "freeze-out" scenario of Zurek. We introduce an analytic dynamical model, valid near the critical point, that exhibits the same power law scaling of the defect density with the quench rate. By incorporating the realistic quench of the expanding Universe, our approach illuminates the dynamical mechanisms important for topological defect formation. The observed power law scaling of the defect density with the quench rate, observered here in a quantum field theory context, provides evidence for the "freeze-out" scenario in three spatial dimensions.Comment: 31 pages, RevTex, 8 figures in EPS forma

Backward pion-nucleon scattering

A global analysis of the world data on differential cross sections and polarization asymmetries of backward pion-nucleon scattering for invariant collision energies above 3 GeV is performed in a Regge model. Including the $N_\alpha$, $N_\gamma$, $\Delta_\delta$ and $\Delta_\beta$ trajectories, we reproduce both angular distributions and polarization data for small values of the Mandelstam variable $u$, in contrast to previous analyses. The model amplitude is used to obtain evidence for baryon resonances with mass below 3 GeV. Our analysis suggests a $G_{39}$ resonance with a mass of 2.83 GeV as member of the $\Delta_{\beta}$ trajectory from the corresponding Chew-Frautschi plot.Comment: 12 pages, 16 figure