BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPOUND COLLECTIVE MODEL; THE VARIANCE PREMIUM PRINCIPLE WITH EXPONENTIAL POISSON AND GAMMA-GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS

The distribution of the aggregate claim size is the considerable importance in insurance theory since, for example, it is needed as an input in premium calculation principles and reserve calculation which plays an important paper in ruin theory. In this paper a Bayesian study for the collective risk model by incorporating a prior distribution for both, the parameter of the claim number distribution and the parameter of the claim size distribution is made and applied to the variance premium principle. Later a sensitivity study is to carry out on both parameters using Bayesian global robustness. Despite the complicated form of the collective risk model it is shown how the robustness study can be treated in an easy way. We illustrate the results obtained with numerical examples.Bayesian Robustness, Contamination Class, Variance Principle.

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPOUND COLLECTIVE MODEL: THE NET PREMIUM PRINCIPLE WITH EXPONENTIAL POISSON AND GAMMA–GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS

This article develops a Bayesian analysis of the Compound Collective Model utilizing the Net Premium Principle, considering single-period models. With respect to likelihoods, we used a Poisson distribution for the number of claims and an Exponential distribution for the severity of the accident/event. Gamma distributions were used for the prior distributions. The robustness of the posterior premium was analyzed with respect to the prior distribution specification of the severity of the accident/event, utilizing contamination classes, these being the class of all the distributions and that of all the unimodal distributions with the same mode. Numerical applications of the results obtained were performed.Compound collective model; Bayesian analysis; Robustness analysis.

Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies

In this paper we build a model of a dollarized economy with imperfect financial markets to analyze and qualify the common view that countries with higher dollarization exhibit higher pass-through. We show that the classic inflationary effects of a real depreciation -higher internal demand and imported inflation- can be offset or diminished in a dollarized economy by higher financial costs and a balance-sheet effect. Thus, pass-through coefficients could be smaller or even negative in economies with a high degree of dollarization. We test the implications of the model using a panel of a hundred-plus countries with differing degrees of dollarization. The results confirm that pass-through coefficients are higher in more dollarized economies, but they also show that large depreciations tend to generate a negative impact on the pass-through coefficient, this impact being higher the higher the level of dollarization of the economy. Additionally, the exchange rate regime is shown to matter, in that countries with fixed exchange rates suffer larger balance-sheet effects of depreciations.

Propuesta de calidad en el servicio: una perspectiva del proceso de admisión del ITESO

Ante el crecimiento acelerado de la oferta educativa de nivel superior privado en México, las universidades se han visto en la necesidad de crear estrategias de innovación que les permitan diferenciarse con el objetivo de lograr una mayor captación de alumnado. Actualmente el ITESO, la universidad Jesuita de Guadalajara, desde su oficina de admisión se encuentra en la búsqueda de nuevas oportunidades de mejora en sus servicios. Por lo anterior, el presente trabajo se propone: desarrollar una propuesta de mejora en la calidad del servicio de la oficina de admisión del ITESO, específicamente en su área de atención, e identificar los puntos de contacto claves y aumentar la eficiencia en la captación y retención de aspirantes durante el proceso de admisión; establecer la línea base de calidad del proceso de admisión; identificar las actividades que no agregan valor; detectar en qué parte del trámite los aspirantes abandonan el proceso de admisión y las razones principales para hacerlo; redefinir las estrategias utilizadas para lograr la retención de los aspirantes; replicar el proyecto en áreas que estén involucradas directamente en el proceso de admisión del aspirante.ITESO, A.C

A Framework to Evaluate Software Developer’s Productivity The VALORTIA Project

Currently, there is a lack in companies developing software in relation to assessing their staff’s productivity before executing software projects, with the aim of improving effectiveness and efficiency. QuEF (Quality Evaluation Framework) is a framework that allows defining quality management tasks based on a model. The main purpose of this framework is twofold: improve an entity’s continuous quality, and given a context, decide between a set of entity’s instances on the most appropriate one. Thus, the aim of this paper is to make this framework available to evaluate productivity of professionals along software development and select the most appropriate experts to implement the suggested project. For this goal, Valortia platform, capable of carrying out this task by following the QuEF framework guidelines, is designed. Valortia is a platform to certify users' knowledge on a specific area and centralize all certification management in its model by means of providing protocols and methods for a suitable management, improving efficiency and effectiveness, reducing cost and ensuring continuous quality.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TIN2013-46928-C3-3-

Aroma Fingerprint Characterisation of La Mancha Red Wines

In the present study, Rojal, Moravia Dulce and Tortosí wines were elaborated across four harvests (2006to 2009) from minority red grape varieties cultivated in the La Mancha region of Spain. Wines werestudied by instrumental and sensory analysis to determine the influence of grape variety on the aromaof the wine. Aroma compounds were isolated by solid phase extraction (SPE) to later be analysed usinggas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The odour activity values (OAVs) for the differentcompounds were classified into seven odorant series that describe the aroma profile of these wines (1: fruity,2: floral, 3: green/fresh, 4: sweet, 5: spice, 6: fatty, and 7: other odours). The total intensities of everyaromatic series were calculated as sum of the OAV of each one of the compounds assigned to this series. Allwines showed the same sequence, with the highest aroma contribution being those of the sweet and fruityseries, followed by fatty. The sensory profile of Rojal, Moravia Dulce and Tortosí wines was evaluated byexperienced wine tasters using a non-structured scale. The panellists founded several differences betweentheir sensory profiles. This study provides a complete aromatic characterisation of these wines

Double or nothing: red flag symptoms of critical carotid stenosis, a case report

Abstract Background Detailed knowledge of every possible manifestation of Internal Carotid Artery (ICA) disease is important. For improving detection and a timely adoption of secondary prevention procedures or treatments. Transient oculomotor nerve palsies have been described associated with stenosis or occlusion of the ICA. Case presentation We described a patient that develop a sequential combination of transient monocular loss of vision followed by binocular diplopia secondary to an unstable atherosclerotic preocclusive stenosis of an internal carotid artery previously treated with radiotherapy. Conclusions The peculiar sequence of transient monocular vision that give rise later into a transient binocular diplopia (double or nothing) should be kept in mind as a possible manifestation of critical stenosis of ICA