Fair distributions of carbon dioxide removal obligations and implications for effective national net-zero targets

Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might affect the years in which different countries should achieve net-zero, become increasingly important. Here we show that, depending on the normative assumptions underlying a CDR burden-sharing system, the adjusted net-zero date for big emitting countries could shift forward by up to 15 years (EU, based on gross domestic product) to 35 years (Russia, based on cumulative per capita emissions) compared with what is modeled domestically in global least-cost scenarios. This illustrates a challenge of using least-cost model scenarios as a basis for setting and evaluating net-zero targets. We also evaluate the potential risk of carbon loss associated with CDR transfers of such a magnitude, and consider how a discount factor could help address carbon loss risks and contribute to overall mitigation. Our results highlight the need for clear guidelines to ensure that international CDR transfers do not obscure urgently-needed domestic emission reductions efforts by big emitters, while promoting a fair and equitable distribution of the CDR burden inflicted by insufficient near-term mitigation. We find a separate mechanism or accounting for CDR obligations to be the most promising avenue to deliver on these objectives.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Peer Reviewe

Closing the gap: the impact of G20 climate commitments on limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C

Under the Paris Agreement, Parties agreed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. While some progress has been made in strengthening national climate targets and policies, current nationally national for reducing emissions are still insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal. Strengthened 2030 and mid-century commitments are urgently needed. The G20—a group collectively accounting for around 75 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 80 percent of global GDP, and two-thirds of global population—has an outsized role to play in addressing climate change.This paper presents a set of scenarios that simulate different climate commitments made by G20 countries for 2030 and mid-century and the resulting impacts on global temperature rise. The analysis finds that if all G20 countries set ambitious, 1.5°C-aligned emission reduction targets for 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, global temperature rise at the end of the century could be limited to 1.7°C, keeping the 1.5°C goal within reach.

Secure robust carbon dioxide removal policy through credible certification

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is a key element of any mitigation strategy aiming to achieve the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as well as national net-zero and net-negative greenhouse gas emissions targets. For robust CDR policy, the credibility of certification schemes is essential

Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets

European Union funding: 821205, 821003, 820829. Wellcome Trust: 205212/Z/16/

Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets

European Union funding: 821205, 821003, 820829. Wellcome Trust: 205212/Z/16/

Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal to Meet the 1.5°C Limit: Key Governance Gaps, Challenges and Priority Responses

Parties to the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement have agreed to pursue efforts to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. To meet this goal, the international community will have to aggressively reduce emissions and also remove CO2 from the atmosphere on an unprecedented scale, through an array of biological and technical Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) options. This paper considers governance challenges that arise from the need to rely on CDR to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. It looks at how heavy this reliance may have to be, over what timeframe, involving what options and, crucially, how best to ensure that CDR does not, while trying to address one problem, create many other challenges for sustainable development. After identifying the potential scale and pace of CO2 removal needed to meet the 1.5°C goal, we identify key governance gaps and challenges that arise from large-scale CDR implementation and propose a series of policy responses to be addressed by policy makers as a matter of priority, to enable CDR to contribute to 1.5°C-consistent pathways at the scale and pace required

Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal to Meet the 1.5°C Limit: Key Governance Gaps, Challenges and Priority Responses

Parties to the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement have agreed to pursue efforts to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. To meet this goal, the international community will have to aggressively reduce emissions and also remove CO2 from the atmosphere on an unprecedented scale, through an array of biological and technical Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) options. This paper considers governance challenges that arise from the need to rely on CDR to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. It looks at how heavy this reliance may have to be, over what timeframe, involving what options and, crucially, how best to ensure that CDR does not, while trying to address one problem, create many other challenges for sustainable development. After identifying the potential scale and pace of CO2 removal needed to meet the 1.5°C goal, we identify key governance gaps and challenges that arise from large-scale CDR implementation and propose a series of policy responses to be addressed by policy makers as a matter of priority, to enable CDR to contribute to 1.5°C-consistent pathways at the scale and pace required

Secure robust carbon dioxide removal policy through credible certification

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is a key element of any mitigation strategy aiming to achieve the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as well as national net-zero and net-negative greenhouse gas emissions targets. For robust CDR policy, the credibility of certification schemes is essential