A Dynamic Generalized Linear Model for Precipitation Forecasting

WORKING PAPER DISES - UNIVERSITA' DI SALERN

Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS), generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR) and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis) of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR) deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on the Relationship between Pediatric MAFLD and Renal Function

Background: Both direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 have been found in all age groups. In particular, adult data demonstrated significant changes in patients with chronic and metabolic disease (e.g., obesity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and metabolic associated fatty liver dysfunction (MAFLD)), while similar pediatric evidence is still limited. We aimed at investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown on the relationship between MAFLD and renal function in children with CKD due to congenital abnormalities of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT). Methods: A total of 21 children with CAKUT and CKD >= stage 1 underwent a comprehensive evaluation within 3 months before and 6 months after the first Italian lockdown. Results: At follow-up, CKD patients with MAFLD presented higher BMI-SDS, serum uric acid, triglycerides, and microalbuminuria levels and lower eGFR levels than those without MAFLD (all p < 0.05). Higher ferritin and white blood cell concentrations were also found in patients with CKD diagnosed with MAFLD than peers without MAFLD (both p = 0.01). Compared to children without MAFLD, a higher delta of BMI-SDS, eGFR levels, and microalbuminuria levels was found in patients with MAFLD. Conclusions: Due to the negative influence of the COVID-19 lockdown on cardiometabolic health in childhood, a careful management of children with CKD is warranted

Effects of Lockdown for COVID-19 Pandemic on Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Children with Congenital Anomalies of the Kidney and Urinary Tract: A Retrospective Pilot Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic changed adults and children’s lifestyle. We focused our attention on children affected by chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to congenital abnormalities of kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) and their behavior during the lockdown. Our aims were to evaluate the incidence of CKD progression within 6 months after the end of the first Italian lockdown and the factors associated to it. CKD progression was defined by the transition to higher CKD stage or by the drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate by a 25% or more for patients belonging to CKD stages 1 and 2. We retrospectively selected 21 children with CAKUT and CKD ≥ stage 1 observed within 3 months before and 6 months after the first Italian lockdown. We called them by phone and asked them about their lifestyle before and during lockdown focusing on physical activity, screen time, sweet/candies/sugar-sweetened beverages eaten/drunk and adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) (through KIDMED questionnaire). We calculated and analyzed the delta between the pre- and post- lockdown observation of all collected parameters (clinical and biochemical parameters and questionnaires scores). Analyzing the overall cohort, we found significantly increased mean BMI and mean screen time and significantly lower mean physical activity time in post- compared with pre-lockdown observations. Eleven out of twenty-one patients (52.4%) had a worsening of CKD. These patients presented higher delta of levels of uric acid and microalbuminuria and showed minor adherence to the MD and declared to have consumed more sweets or candies or sugar-sweetened beverages/week during the lockdown with a tendentially major increment of BMI compared with patients not presenting CKD progression. In conclusion, the lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic determined increase of BMI in all enrolled patients due to a “forced” negative lifestyle. About half of these patients presented CKD progression. This progression was associated to less adherence to the MD and major consumption of sweets or candies or sugar-sweetened beverages

Survey of neonatal respiratory care and surfactant administration in very preterm infants in the Italian neonatal network

Introduction: Variation of respiratory care is described between centers around the world.The Italian Neonatal Network (INN), as a national group of the Vermont-Oxford Network (VON) allows to perform a wide analysis of respiratory care in very low birth weight infants. Methods:We analyzed the dataset of infants enrolled in the INN in 2009 and 2010 and, for surfactant administration only, from 2006 to 2010 from 83 participating centers. All definitions are those of the (VON). A questionnaire analysis was also performed with a questionnaire on centers practices. Results: We report data for 8297 infants. Data on ventilator practices and outcomes are outlined. Variation for both practices and outcome is found. Trend in surfactant administration is also analyzed. Conclusions. The great variation across hospitals in all the surveyed techniques points to the possibility of implementing potentially better practices with the aim of reducing unwanted variation. These data also show the power of large neonatal networks in identifying areas for potential improvement. \ua9 Mattioli 1885

Survey of neonatal respiratory care and surfactant administration in very preterm infants in the Italian neonatal network

Introduction: Variation of respiratory care is described between centers around the world.The Italian Neonatal Network (INN), as a national group of the Vermont-Oxford Network (VON) allows to perform a wide analysis of respiratory care in very low birth weight infants. Methods:We analyzed the dataset of infants enrolled in the INN in 2009 and 2010 and, for surfactant administration only, from 2006 to 2010 from 83 participating centers. All definitions are those of the (VON). A questionnaire analysis was also performed with a questionnaire on centers practices. Results: We report data for 8297 infants. Data on ventilator practices and outcomes are outlined. Variation for both practices and outcome is found. Trend in surfactant administration is also analyzed. Conclusions. The great variation across hospitals in all the surveyed techniques points to the possibility of implementing potentially better practices with the aim of reducing unwanted variation. These data also show the power of large neonatal networks in identifying areas for potential improvement. © Mattioli 1885

Association of maternal hypertension and chorioamnionitis with preterm outcomes

OBJECTIVES: We compared the relative effect of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and chorioamnionitis on adverse neonatal outcomes in very preterm neonates, and studied whether gestational age (GA) modulates these effects. METHODS: A cohort of neonates 23 to 30 weeks' GA, born in 2008 to 2011 in 82 hospitals adhering to the Italian Neonatal Network, was analyzed. Infants born from mothers who had hypertensive disorders (N = 2096) were compared with those born after chorioamnionitis (N = 1510). Statistical analysis employed logistic models, adjusting for GA, hospital, and potential confounders. RESULTS: Overall mortality was higher after hypertension than after chorioamnionitis (odds ratio [OR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.80), but this relationship changed across GA weeks; the OR for hypertension was highest at low GA, whereas from 28 weeks' GA onward, mortality was higher for chorioamnionitis. For other outcomes, the relative risks were constant across GA; infants born after hypertension had an increased risk for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.68-2.88) and severe retinopathy of prematurity (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.02-2.15), whereas there was a lower risk for early-onset sepsis (OR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.19-0.34), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.48-0.88), periventricular leukomalacia (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.48-1.01), and surgical necrotizing enterocolitis or gastrointestinal perforation (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.31-0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality and other adverse outcomes in very preterm infants depend on antecedents of preterm birth. Hypertension and chorioamnionitis are associated with different patterns of outcomes; for mortality, the effect changes across GA weeks. Copyright \uc2\ua9 2014 by the American Academy of Pediatrics