Temperature-sensitive Tien Shan tree ring chronologies show multi-centennial growth trends

Two millennia-length juniper ring width chronologies, processed to preserve multi-centennial growth trends, are presented for the Alai Range of the western Tien Shan in Kirghizia. The chronologies average the information from seven near-timberline sampling sites, and likely reflect summer temperature variation. For comparison, chronologies are also built using standard dendrochronological techniques. We briefly discuss some qualities of these "inter-decadal” records, and show the low frequency components removed by the standardization process include a long-term negative trend in the first half of the last millennium and a long-term positive trend since about AD 1800. The multi-centennial scale Alai Range chronologies, where these trends are retained, are both systematically biased (but in an opposite sense) in their low frequency domains. Nevertheless, they represent the best constraints and estimates of long-term summer temperature variation, and reflect the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and a period of warming since about the middle of the nineteenth centur

An open framework for risk management

Risk assessment methodologies are ready to enter their third generation. In this next generation, assessment will be based on a whole system understanding of the system to be assessed. To realize this vision of risk management, the authors have begun development of an extensible software tool kit. This tool kit breaks with the traditional approach to assessment by having the analyst spend the majority of the assessment time building an explicit model that documents in a single framework the various facets of the system, such as the system`s behavior, structure, and history. Given this explicit model of the system, a computer is able to automatically produce a standard assessment products, such as fault trees and event trees. This brings with it a number of advantages relative to current risk management tools. Among these are a greater sense of completeness and correctness in assessment results and the ability to preserve and later employ lessons learned

The thermodynamic evolution of the cosmological event horizon

By manipulating the integral expression for the proper radius $R_e$ of the cosmological event horizon (CEH) in a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) universe, we obtain an analytical expression for the change \dd R_e in response to a uniform fluctuation \dd\rho in the average cosmic background density $\rho$. We stipulate that the fluctuation arises within a vanishing interval of proper time, during which the CEH is approximately stationary, and evolves subsequently such that \dd\rho/\rho is constant. The respective variations 2\pi R_e \dd R_e and \dd E_e in the horizon entropy $S_e$ and enclosed energy $E_e$ should be therefore related through the cosmological Clausius relation. In that manner we find that the temperature $T_e$ of the CEH at an arbitrary time in a flat FRW universe is $E_e/S_e$, which recovers asymptotically the usual static de Sitter temperature. Furthermore, it is proven that during radiation-dominance and in late times the CEH conforms to the fully dynamical First Law T_e \drv S_e = P\drv V_e - \drv E_e, where $V_e$ is the enclosed volume and $P$ is the average cosmic pressure.Comment: 6 page

Molecular Beams

Contains reports on five research projects

Exclusion Limits on the WIMP-Nucleon Cross-Section from the First Run of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search in the Soudan Underground Lab

The Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS-II) employs low-temperature Ge and Si detectors to seek Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) via their elastic scattering interactions with nuclei. Simultaneous measurements of both ionization and phonon energy provide discrimination against interactions of background particles. For recoil energies above 10 keV, events due to background photons are rejected with >99.99% efficiency. Electromagnetic events very near the detector surface can mimic nuclear recoils because of reduced charge collection, but these surface events are rejected with >96% efficiency by using additional information from the phonon pulse shape. Efficient use of active and passive shielding, combined with the the 2090 m.w.e. overburden at the experimental site in the Soudan mine, makes the background from neutrons negligible for this first exposure. All cuts are determined in a blind manner from in situ calibrations with external radioactive sources without any prior knowledge of the event distribution in the signal region. Resulting efficiencies are known to ~10%. A single event with a recoil of 64 keV passes all of the cuts and is consistent with the expected misidentification rate of surface-electron recoils. Under the assumptions for a standard dark matter halo, these data exclude previously unexplored parameter space for both spin-independent and spin-dependent WIMP-nucleon elastic scattering. The resulting limit on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon elastic-scattering cross-section has a minimum of 4x10^-43 cm^2 at a WIMP mass of 60 GeV/c^2. The minimum of the limit for the spin-dependent WIMP-neutron elastic-scattering cross-section is 2x10^-37 cm^2 at a WIMP mass of 50 GeV/c^2.Comment: 37 pages, 42 figure

Inter-species variation in colour perception

Inter-species variation in colour perception poses a serious problem for the view that colours are mind-independent properties. Given that colour perception varies so drastically across species, which species perceives colours as they really are? In this paper, I argue that all do. Specifically, I argue that members of different species perceive properties that are determinates of different, mutually compatible, determinables. This is an instance of a general selectionist strategy for dealing with cases of perceptual variation. According to selectionist views, objects simultaneously instantiate a plurality of colours, all of them genuinely mind-independent, and subjects select from amongst this plurality which colours they perceive. I contrast selectionist views with relationalist views that deny the mind-independence of colour, and consider some general objections to this strategy

Exclusion limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross-section from the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search

The Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) employs low-temperature Ge and Si detectors to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) via their elastic-scattering interactions with nuclei while discriminating against interactions of background particles. For recoil energies above 10 keV, events due to background photons are rejected with >99.9% efficiency, and surface events are rejected with >95% efficiency. The estimate of the background due to neutrons is based primarily on the observation of multiple-scatter events that should all be neutrons. Data selection is determined primarily by examining calibration data and vetoed events. Resulting efficiencies should be accurate to about 10%. Results of CDMS data from 1998 and 1999 with a relaxed fiducial-volume cut (resulting in 15.8 kg-days exposure on Ge) are consistent with an earlier analysis with a more restrictive fiducial-volume cut. Twenty-three WIMP candidate events are observed, but these events are consistent with a background from neutrons in all ways tested. Resulting limits on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon elastic-scattering cross-section exclude unexplored parameter space for WIMPs with masses between 10-70 GeV c^{-2}. These limits border, but do not exclude, parameter space allowed by supersymmetry models and accelerator constraints. Results are compatible with some regions reported as allowed at 3-sigma by the annual-modulation measurement of the DAMA collaboration. However, under the assumptions of standard WIMP interactions and a standard halo, the results are incompatible with the DAMA most likely value at >99.9% CL, and are incompatible with the model-independent annual-modulation signal of DAMA at 99.99% CL in the asymptotic limit.Comment: 40 pages, 49 figures (4 in color), submitted to Phys. Rev. D; v.2:clarified conclusions, added content and references based on referee's and readers' comments; v.3: clarified introductory sections, added figure based on referee's comment

Molecular Beams

Contains research objectives and reports on five research projects