Value of electrocardiographic screening for the early diagnosis of arrhythmic and malignant heart disease in pediatric age

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is an instrument that can identify cardiac conduction system abnormalities that predispose to sudden cardiac death (SCD) in completely asymptomatic subjects. The rate of sudden cardiac death in pediatric age is estimated to be around 1-1.5 cases per 100.000 individuals, and 10-15% of events occur during physical activity. We evaluated the importance of the electrocardiogram performed in pediatric age in the early detection of asymptomatic electrocardiographic alterations, suggestive for the presence of electrical or structural heart disease potentially at risk for sudden death. Materials and Methods We analyzed 623 patients between 0 and 16 years of age who were sent to the second level pediatric arrhythmology clinic in Padua Hospital between October 2013 and March 2020. The patients were redirected at our clinic after a first finding of electrocardiographic alterations, following ECG performed before the beginning of sport activity, suspected of life-threatening pathologies. The following parameters were evaluated of all patients: clinical suspect of sending the pediatric arrhythmology clinic and electrocardiogram. Then, depending on the type of pathology suspected, the following diagnostic tests were carried out to confirm the clinical suspicion, and if confirmed, to carry out an adequate risk stratification: Holter ECG, ergometric Results Among the evaluated population (623 patients), 393 patients (63%) were sent to the pediatric arrhythmology clinic by sports medicine, 179 (29%) were sent by clinical o family pediatrician, and 51 patients (8%) were sent after ECG performed at hospital facilities for familiarity. The majority, 280 patients (45%), were sent for suspected WPW; 124 patients (20%) were sent for BEV and suspected ARVD; 85 patients (14%) for suspected long QT, 31 patients (5%) for suspected Brugada Pattern; 7 patients (1%) suspected CPVT; 8 patients (1%) for electrocardiographic changes with suspected HCM; 1 patient (0.01%) suspected shortened QT, and 88 patients (14%) for other arrhythmic disorders not at risk of sudden death. The diagnosis of WPW was confirmed in 280 patients, LQTS in 45 patients, SQTS in 1 patient, S. di Brugada in 8 patients, CPVT in 5 patients, HCM in 8 patients and ARVD in 6 patients. Conclusions Our study shows that the electrocardiographic screening already in pediatric age allows the diagnosis and subsequent early treatment of life-threatening arrhythmic heart diseases

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses

BACKGROUND: The recent work on the modified H5N1 has stirred an intense debate on the risk associated with the accidental release from biosafety laboratory of potential pandemic pathogens. Here, we assess the risk that the accidental escape of a novel transmissible influenza strain would not be contained in the local community. METHODS: We develop here a detailed agent-based model that specifically considers laboratory workers and their contacts in microsimulations of the epidemic onset. We consider the following non-pharmaceutical interventions: isolation of the laboratory, laboratory workers’ household quarantine, contact tracing of cases and subsequent household quarantine of identified secondary cases, and school and workplace closure both preventive and reactive. RESULTS: Model simulations suggest that there is a non-negligible probability (5% to 15%), strongly dependent on reproduction number and probability of developing clinical symptoms, that the escape event is not detected at all. We find that the containment depends on the timely implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and contact tracing and it may be effective (>90% probability per event) only for pathogens with moderate transmissibility (reproductive number no larger than R(0) = 1.5). Containment depends on population density and structure as well, with a probability of giving rise to a global event that is three to five times lower in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that controllability of escape events is not guaranteed and, given the rapid increase of biosafety laboratories worldwide, this poses a serious threat to human health. Our findings may be relevant to policy makers when designing adequate preparedness plans and may have important implications for determining the location of new biosafety laboratories worldwide

Chronic Heart Failure in Children: State of the Art and New Perspectives

Pediatric heart failure (HF) is an important clinical condition with high morbidity and mortality. Compared to adults, pediatric HF shows different etiologies characterized by different physiology, a different clinical course, and deeply different therapeutic approaches. In the last few years, new drugs have been developed and new therapeutic strategies have been proposed with the goal of identifying an individualized treatment regimen. The aim of this article is to review the new potential drugs and non-pharmacological therapies for pediatric heart failure in children