Future Directions for Whole Atmosphere Modeling:Developments in the Context of Space Weather

Coupled Sun‐to‐Earth models represent a key part of the future development of space weather forecasting. With respect to predicting the state of the thermosphere and ionosphere, there has been a recent paradigm shift; it is now clear that any self‐respecting model of this region needs to include some representation of forcing from the lower atmosphere, as well as solar and geomagnetic forcing. Here we assess existing modeling capability and set out a roadmap for the important next steps needed to ensure further advances. These steps include a model verification strategy, analysis of the impact of non‐hydrostatic dynamical cores, and a cost‐benefit analysis of model chemistry for weather and climate applications

St. Patrick’s Day 2015 geomagnetic storm analysis based on Real Time Ionosphere Monitoring

A detailed analysis is presented for the days in March, 2015 surrounding St. Patrick’s Day 2015 geomagnetic storm, based on the existing real-time and near real-time ionospheric models (global or regional) within the group, which are mainly based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and ionosonde data. For this purpose, a variety of ionospheric parameters is considered, including Total Electron Content (TEC), F2 layer critical frequency (foF2), F2 layer peak (hmF2), bottomside halfthickness (B0) and ionospheric disturbance W-index. Also, ionospheric high-frequency perturbations such as Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs), scintillations and the impact of solar flares facing the Earth will be presented to derive a clear picture of the ionospheric dynamicsPostprint (published version

Principles Of Heliophysics: a textbook on the universal processes behind planetary habitability

This textbook gives a perspective of heliophysics in a way that emphasizes universal processes from a perspective that draws attention to what provides Earth (and similar (exo-)planets) with a relatively stable setting in which life as we know it can thrive. The book is intended for students in physical sciences in later years of their university training and for beginning graduate students in fields of solar, stellar, (exo-)planetary, and planetary-system sciences.Comment: 419 pages, 119 figures, and 200 "activities" in the form of problems, exercises, explorations, literature readings, and "what if" challenge

Ionospheric Behavior During the First Few Hours of Intense Geomagnetic Storms

The behavior of the ionosphere during the first few hours of intense geomagnetic storms is presented. The topics include: 1) TEC Modification; 2) JASON TEC (1336 km altitude); 3) Multiple Storms; 4) CHAMP (greater than 400 km) November 20, 2003; 5) November 20, 1PM LT, Ground; 6) Role of Modeling; and 7) Composition-related increase

The International Reference Ionosphere Today and in the Future

The international reference ionosphere (IRI) is the internationally recognized and recommended standard for the specification of plasma parameters in Earth's ionosphere. It describes monthly averages of electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, ion composition, and several additional parameters in the altitude range from 60 to 1,500 km. A joint working group of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) is in charge of developing and improving the IRI model. As requested by COSPAR and URSI, IRI is an empirical model being based on most of the available and reliable data sources for the ionospheric plasma. The paper describes the latest version of the model and reviews efforts towards future improvements, including the development of new global models for the F2 peak density and height, and a new approach to describe the electron density in the topside and plasmasphere. Our emphasis will be on the electron density because it is the IRI parameter most relevant to geodetic techniques and studies. Annual IRI meetings are the main venue for the discussion of IRI activities, future improvements, and additions to the model. A new special IRI task force activity is focusing on the development of a real-time IRI (RT-IRI) by combining data assimilation techniques with the IRI model. A first RT-IRI task force meeting was held in 2009 in Colorado Springs. We will review the outcome of this meeting and the plans for the future. The IRI homepage is at http://www.IRI.gsfc.nasa.go

Quantifying the sources of ionosphere day‐to‐day variability

Simulations from the coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere show significant day‐to‐day variations in total electron content (TEC) and the F region peak density (NmF2). The Whole Atmosphere Model‐Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere was driven by the auroral precipitation patterns inferred from TIROS/NOAA, daily solar irradiance measurements derived from the satellite observations, and 5‐min interplanetary magnetic field/solar wind parameters during June and July 2012. Overall, the combination of solar, magnetosphere, and lower atmosphere drivers produced similar magnitude of variability consistent with that seen in observations. Results also show that the relative variability is much larger at night than in the daytime, due to much lower background density, and depended strongly on latitude and local time. Additional simulations were also performed to distinguish the contributions to the variability from solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and lower atmospheric perturbations. Results show that globally, geomagnetic activity is the main contributor to the NmF2 variability, followed by lower atmosphere perturbation, and then solar activity. For TEC variability, again, geomagnetic activity is the main contributor, followed by solar activity, and then lower atmosphere perturbation. In terms of absolute variability, at low latitudes solar activity dominates the TEC variability, most likely due to the importance of solar EUV driving the changes in ionosphere density through photoionization, while the contributions from the lower atmosphere and geomagnetic activity are almost equally. For the middle‐ and high‐latitude regions, the solar activity and geomagnetic activity are the most important sources for the TEC variability.Published versio

Modeling the ionosphere-thermosphere response to a geomagnetic storm using physics-based magnetospheric energy input: OpenGGCM-CTIM results

The magnetosphere is a major source of energy for the Earth’s ionosphere and thermosphere (IT) system. Current IT models drive the upper atmosphere using empirically calculated magnetospheric energy input. Thus, they do not sufficiently capture the storm-time dynamics, particularly at high latitudes. To improve the prediction capability of IT models, a physics-based magnetospheric input is necessary. Here, we use the Open Global General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM) coupled with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM). OpenGGCM calculates a three-dimensional global magnetosphere and a two-dimensional high-latitude ionosphere by solving resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations with solar wind input. CTIM calculates a global thermosphere and a high-latitude ionosphere in three dimensions using realistic magnetospheric inputs from the OpenGGCM. We investigate whether the coupled model improves the storm-time IT responses by simulating a geomagnetic storm that is preceded by a strong solar wind pressure front on August 24, 2005. We compare the OpenGGCM-CTIM results with low-earth-orbit satellite observations and with the model results of Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe). CTIPe is an up-to-date version of CTIM that incorporates more IT dynamics such as a low-latitude ionosphere and a plasmasphere, but uses empirical magnetospheric input. OpenGGCM-CTIM reproduces localized neutral density peaks at ~ 400 km altitude in the high-latitude dayside regions in agreement with in situ observations during the pressure shock and the early phase of the storm. Although CTIPe is in some sense a much superior model than CTIM, it misses these localized enhancements. Unlike the CTIPe empirical input models, OpenGGCM-CTIM more faithfully produces localized increases of both auroral precipitation and ionospheric electric fields near the high-latitude dayside region after the pressure shock and after the storm onset, which in turn effectively heats the thermosphere and causes the neutral density increase at 400 km altitude

Modeling the ionosphere-thermosphere response to a geomagnetic storm using physics-based magnetospheric energy input: OpenGGCM-CTIM results

The magnetosphere is a major source of energy for the Earth’s ionosphere and thermosphere (IT) system. Current IT models drive the upper atmosphere using empirically calculated magnetospheric energy input. Thus, they do not sufficiently capture the storm-time dynamics, particularly at high latitudes. To improve the prediction capability of IT models, a physics-based magnetospheric input is necessary. Here, we use the Open Global General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM) coupled with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM). OpenGGCM calculates a three-dimensional global magnetosphere and a two-dimensional high-latitude ionosphere by solving resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations with solar wind input. CTIM calculates a global thermosphere and a high-latitude ionosphere in three dimensions using realistic magnetospheric inputs from the OpenGGCM. We investigate whether the coupled model improves the storm-time IT responses by simulating a geomagnetic storm that is preceded by a strong solar wind pressure front on August 24, 2005. We compare the OpenGGCM-CTIM results with low-earth-orbit satellite observations and with the model results of Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe). CTIPe is an up-to-date version of CTIM that incorporates more IT dynamics such as a low-latitude ionosphere and a plasmasphere, but uses empirical magnetospheric input. OpenGGCM-CTIM reproduces localized neutral density peaks at ~ 400 km altitude in the high-latitude dayside regions in agreement with in situ observations during the pressure shock and the early phase of the storm. Although CTIPe is in some sense a much superior model than CTIM, it misses these localized enhancements. Unlike the CTIPe empirical input models, OpenGGCM-CTIM more faithfully produces localized increases of both auroral precipitation and ionospheric electric fields near the high-latitude dayside region after the pressure shock and after the storm onset, which in turn effectively heats the thermosphere and causes the neutral density increase at 400 km altitude

Thermosphere and satellite drag

Accurate forecasts of thermosphere densities, realistic calculation of aerodynamic drag, and propagation of the uncertainty on the predicted orbit positions are required for conjunction analysis and collision avoidance decision making. The main focus of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) involved in atmosphere variability studies is satellite drag, and this paper reviews our current capabilities and lists recommendations. The uncertainty in the density of thermosphere models is due to the combined effect of employing simplified or incomplete algorithms, inconsistent and sparse density data, incomplete drivers for upper atmosphere heating processes (proxies for solar and geomagnetic activity), and forecast error of said drivers. When calculating drag, the uncertainty is amplified due to the satellite shape and aerodynamic model. The sources of uncertainty are reviewed in this paper, and possible and promising ways forward are proposed. Data assimilation models/approaches have demonstrated superior skill in reproducing the thermosphere's state and are the most promising way forward. However, data to drive the models is generally lacking, and they require significant computational resources. Substantial progress can only be made by means of setting up a full-blown observing system, including not only density and composition measurements, but equally the necessary model drivers