Optimal Management of a Multispecies Shorebird Flyway under Sea-Level Rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian-Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea-level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species

Heartbeat stars and the ringing of tidal pulsations

With the advent of high precision photometry from satellites such as Kepler and CoRoT, a whole new layer of interesting and astounding astronomical objects has been revealed: heartbeat stars are an example of such objects. Heartbeat stars are eccen- tric ellipsoidal variables that undergo strong tidal interactions when the stars are almost in contact at the time of closest approach. These interactions deform of the stars and cause a notable light curve variation in the form of a tidal pulse. A subset of these objects (∼20%) show prominent tidally induced pulsations: pulsations forced by the binary orbit. We now have a fully functional code that models binary star features (using phoebe) and stellar pulsations simultaneously, enabling a complete and accurate heartbeat star model to be determined. In this paper we show the results of our new code, which uses emcee, a variant of mcmc, to generate a full set of stellar parameters. We further highlight the interesting features of KIC 8164262, including its tidally induced pulsations and resonantly locked pulsations

Uncertainty in identifying local extinctions: the distribution of missing data and its effects on biodiversity measures

Identifying local extinctions is integral to estimating species richness and geographic range changes and informing extinction risk assessments. However, the species occurrence records underpinning these estimates are frequently compromised by a lack of recorded species absences making it impossible to distinguish between local extinction and lack of survey effort-for a rigorously compiled database of European and Asian Galliformes, approximately 40% of half-degree cells contain records from before but not after 1980. We investigate the distribution of these cells, finding differences between the Palaearctic (forests, low mean human influence index (HII), outside protected areas (PAs)) and Indo-Malaya (grassland, high mean HII, outside PAs). Such cells also occur more in less peaceful countries. We show that different interpretations of these cells can lead to large over/under-estimations of species richness and extent of occurrences, potentially misleading prioritization and extinction risk assessment schemes. To avoid mistakes, local extinctions inferred from sightings records need to account for the history of survey effort in a locality

The rarity of direct experiences of nature in an urban population

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.As people live more urbanised lifestyles there is potential to lose daily contact with nature, diminishing access to the wide range of associated health benefits of interacting with nature. Experiences of nature vary widely across populations, but this variation is poorly understood. We surveyed 1,023 residents of an urban population in the UK to measure four distinctly different nature interactions: indirect (viewing nature through a window at work and at home), incidental (spending time outside at work), intentional (time spent in private gardens) and intentional (time spent in public parks). Scaled-up to the whole study population, accumulation curves of the total number of hours per week that people were exposed to each type of nature interaction showed that 75% of nature interactions were experienced by half the population. Moreover, 75% of the interactions of a type where people were actually present in nature were experienced by just 32% of the population. The average hours each individual experienced nature per week varied across interactions: indirect (46.0 ± 27.3 SD), incidental (6.4 ± 12.7 SD), intentional-gardens (2.5 ± 2.9 SD) and intentional-parks (2.3 ± 2.7 SD). Experiencing nature regularly appears to be the exception rather than the norm, with a person’s connection to nature being positively associated with incidental and intentional experiences. This novel study provides baseline information regarding how an urban population experiences different types of nature. Deconstructing nature experience will pave the way for developing recommendations for targeted health outcomes.DTCC, HLH & KJG were funded by NERC grant NE/J015237/1. D.F.S. is supported through ARC Discovery Grant DP120102857 and the Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED, Australia); R.A.F. holds an ARC Future Fellowship

The impact of urbanisation on nature dose and the implications for human health

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.The last 100 years have seen a huge change in the global structure of the human population, with the majority of people now living in urban rather than rural environments. An assumed consequence is that people will have fewer experiences of nature, and this could have important consequences given the myriad health benefits that they can gain from such experiences. Alternatively, as experiences of nature become rarer, people might be more likely actively to seek them out, mitigating the negative effects of urbanisation. In this study, we used data for 3000 survey respondents from across the UK, and a nature-dose framework, to determine whether (a) increasing urbanisation is associated with a decrease in the frequency, duration and intensity of nature dose; and (b) differences in nature exposure associated with urbanisation impact on four population health outcomes (depression, self-reported health, social cohesion and physical activity). We found negative exponential relationships between nature dose and the degree of urbanisation. The frequency and duration of dose decreased from rural to suburban environments, followed by little change with further increases in urbanisation. There were weak but positive associations between frequency and duration of dose across all four health domains, while different dimensions of dose showed more positive associations with specific health domains in towns and cities. We show that people in urban areas with a low nature dose tend to have worse health across multiple domains, but have the potential for the greatest gains from spending longer in nature, or living in green areas.D.T.C.C, H.L.H. and K.J.G were supported by the Fragments, Functions, Flows and Urban Ecosystem Services project, NERC grant NE/J015237/1, funded under the NERC Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service Sustainability program

Health benefits from nature experiences depend on dose

Nature within cities will have a central role in helping address key global public health 3 challenges associated with urbanization. However, there is almost no guidance on how much 4 or how frequently people need to engage with nature, and what types or characteristics of 5 nature need to be incorporated in cities for the best health outcomes. Here we use a nature 6 dose framework to examine the associations between the duration, frequency and intensity of 7 exposure to nature and health in an urban population. We show that people who made long 8 visits to green spaces had lower rates of depression and high blood pressure, and those who 9 visited more frequently had greater social cohesion. Higher levels of physical activity were 10 linked to both duration and frequency of green space visits. A dose-response analysis for 11 depression and high blood pressure suggest that visits to outdoor green spaces of 30 minutes 12 or more during the course of a week could reduce the population prevalence of these illnesses 13 by up to 7% and 9% respectively. Given that the societal costs of depression alone in 14 Australia are estimated at AUD$12.6 billion per annum, savings to public health budgets 15 across all health outcomes could be immense.D.F.S. is supported through ARC Discovery Grant DP120102857 and the Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED, Australia); R.A.F. holds an ARC Future Fellowship; B.B.L. is supported through the CSIRO Land and Water Flagship; and K.J.G. is supported by NERC grant NE/J015237/1. J. Rhodes, K. Johansen and S. Wu contributed to the development of the vegetation data. Authors would like to thank the Brisbane City Council for providing GIS data layers, the Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation and the Department of Natural Resources and Mines, QLD for providing access to the airborne LiDAR

The extirpation of species outside protected areas

Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Protected areas (PAs) are fundamental to conservation efforts but they are only part of a successful conservation strategy. We examine biodiversity outside PAs in Sundaland, one of the world's most biologically degraded regions. Using the avian order Galliformes as a case study, we identify species that have not been sighted outside PAs within the last 20 years on each individual landmass (i.e., Malay Peninsula, Borneo, Sumatra, Java, and Bali). We estimate these species’ extirpation dates outside PAs using optimal linear estimation and species’ sighting records. We conclude there have been up to 13 extirpations of Galliformes from outside PAs in Sundaland. Three Sundaic endemics now occur only inside PAs. Sumatra has suffered the highest proportion of extirpations (50% of its galliform species). Effective management of Sundaland's PAs is thus critical to species’ persistence and the conservation strategy for species outside PAs must be improved

Introduction: looking beyond the walls

In its consideration of the remarkable extent and variety of non-university researchers, this book takes a broader view of ‘knowledge’ and ‘research’ than in the many hot debates about today’s knowledge society, ‘learning age’, or organisation of research. It goes beyond the commonly held image of ‘knowledge’ as something produced and owned by the full-time experts to take a look at those engaged in active knowledge building outside the university walls

Doses of neighborhood nature: the benefits for mental health of living with nature

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from OUP via the DOI in this record.Experiences of nature provide many mental health benefits, particularly for people living in urban areas. The natural characteristics of city residents’ neighborhoods are likely to be critical determinants of the daily nature dose that they receive, however which characteristics are important remains unclear. One possibility is that the greatest benefits are provided by characteristics that are most visible during the day and so most likely to be experienced by people. We demonstrate that of five neighborhood nature characteristics tested, vegetation cover and afternoon bird abundances were positively associated with a lower prevalence of depression, anxiety and stress. Further, dose-response modelling shows a threshold response where the population prevalence of mental health issues is significantly lower beyond minimum limits of neighborhood vegetation cover (depression >20% cover, anxiety >30% cover, stress >20% cover). Our findings demonstrate quantifiable associations of mental health with the characteristics of nearby nature that people actually experience

Migration in butterflies: a global overview

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record Insect populations including butterflies are declining worldwide, and they are becoming an urgent conservation priority in many regions. Understanding which butterfly species migrate is critical to planning for their conservation, because management actions for migrants need to be coordinated across time and space. Yet, while migration appears to be widespread among butterflies, its prevalence, as well as its taxonomic and geographic distribution are poorly understood. The study of insect migration is hampered by their small size and the difficulty of tracking individuals over long distances. Here we review the literature on migration in butterflies, one of the best-known insect groups. We find that nearly 600 butterfly species show evidence of migratory movements. Indeed, the rate of ‘discovery’ of migratory movements in butterflies suggests that many more species might in fact be migratory. Butterfly migration occurs across all families, in tropical as well as temperate taxa; Nymphalidae has more migratory species than any other family (275 species), and Pieridae has the highest proportion of migrants (13%; 133 species). Some 13 lines of evidence have been used to ascribe migration status in the literature, but only a single line of evidence is available for 92% of the migratory species identified, with four or more lines of evidence available for only 10 species – all from the Pieridae and Nymphalidae. Migratory butterflies occur worldwide, although the geographic distribution of migration in butterflies is poorly resolved, with most data so far coming from Europe, USA, and Australia. Migration is much more widespread in butterflies than previously realised – extending far beyond the well-known examples of the monarch Danaus plexippus and the painted lady Vanessa cardui – and actions to conserve butterflies and insects in general must account for the spatial dependencies introduced by migratory movements.Australian GovernmentCentre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queenslan