Atmospheric predictability revisited

This article examines the potential to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) by estimating upper and lower bounds on predictability by re-visiting the original study of Lorenz (1982) but applied to the most recent version of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system, for both the deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPS). These bounds are contrasted with an older version of the same NWP system to see how they have changed with improvements to the NWP system. The computations were performed for the earlier seasons of DJF 1985/1986 and JJA 1986 and the later seasons of DJF 2010/2011 and JJA 2011 using the 500-hPa geopotential height field. Results indicate that for this field, we may be approaching the limit of deterministic forecasting so that further improvements might only be obtained by improving the initial state. The results also show that predictability calculations with earlier versions of the model may overestimate potential forecast skill, which may be due to insufficient internal variability in the model and because recent versions of the model are more realistic in representing the true atmospheric evolution. The same methodology is applied to the EPS to calculate upper and lower bounds of predictability of the ensemble mean forecast in order to explore how ensemble forecasting could extend the limits of the deterministic forecast. The results show that there is a large potential to improve the ensemble predictions, but for the increased predictability of the ensemble mean, there will be a trade-off in information as the forecasts will become increasingly smoothed with time. From around the 10-d forecast time, the ensemble mean begins to converge towards climatology. Until this point, the ensemble mean is able to predict the main features of the large-scale flow accurately and with high consistency from one forecast cycle to the next. By the 15-d forecast time, the ensemble mean has lost information with the anomaly of the flow strongly smoothed out. In contrast, the control forecast is much less consistent from run to run, but provides more detailed (unsmoothed) but less useful information

A transient liquid-like phase in the displacement cascades of zircon, hafnon and thorite

The study of radiation effects in solids is important for the development of 'radiation-resistant' materials for fission-reactor applications'. The effects of heavy-ion irradiation in the isostructural orthosilicates zircon (ZrSiO4), hafnon (HfSiO4) and thorite (ThSiO4) are particularly important because these minerals are under active investigation for use as a waste form for plutonium-239 resulting from the dismantling of nuclear weapons(2-4). During ion irradiation, localized 'cascades' of displaced atoms can form as a result of ballistic collisions in the target material, and the temperature inside these regions may for a short time exceed the bulk melting temperature. Whether these cascades do indeed generate a localized liquid state(5-8) has, however, remained unclear. Here we investigate the irradiation-induced decomposition of zircon and hafnon, and find evidence for formation of a liquidlike state in the displacement cascades. Our results explain the frequent occurrence of ZrO2 in natural amorphous zircong(9-12) Moreover, we conclude that zircon-based nuclear waste forms should be maintained within strict temperature Limits, to avoid potentially detrimental irradiation-induced amorphization or phase decomposition of the zircon.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62853/1/395056a0.pd

A Fast Panel Code for Complex Actuator Disk Flows

A fast, linear scaling vortex method is presented to study inviscid incompressible flow problems involving one or more actuator disks. Building upon previous efforts that were limited to axi-symmetric flow cases, the proposed methodology is able to handle arbitrary configurations with no symmetry constraints. Applications include the conceptual study of wake interaction mechanisms in wind farms, and the correction of wind tunnel blockage effects in test sections of arbitrary shape. Actuator disks represent wind turbines through the shedding of a deformable vortex wake, discretized with a plaid of triangular distributed dipole singularities. An iterative method is adopted to align the wake with the local flow field, which is reconstructed from the vorticity field with a Green function approach. Interactions are computed with a Fast Multipole Method (FMM), effectively overcoming the quadratic scaling of computational time associated with traditional panel methods. When compared to direct computation, the use of an FMM algorithm reduced solution time by a factor 30 when studying the wake of a single actuator disk with 60000 panels. In the same case, the mass flux of the actuator streamtube was conserved to 0:002%. Finally, the presence of round and square impermeable walls around the actuator is considered to demonstrate the code applicability to wind tunnel wall interference correction problems

Making subaltern shikaris: histories of the hunted in colonial central India

Academic histories of hunting or shikar in India have almost entirely focused on the sports hunting of British colonists and Indian royalty. This article attempts to balance this elite bias by focusing on the meaning of shikar in the construction of the Gond ‘tribal’ identity in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century colonial central India. Coining the term ‘subaltern shikaris’ to refer to the class of poor, rural hunters, typically ignored in this historiography, the article explores how the British managed to use hunting as a means of state penetration into central India’s forest interior, where they came to regard their Gond forest-dwelling subjects as essentially and eternally primitive hunting tribes. Subaltern shikaris were employed by elite sportsmen and were also paid to hunt in the colonial regime’s vermin eradication programme, which targeted tigers, wolves, bears and other species identified by the state as ‘dangerous beasts’. When offered economic incentives, forest dwellers usually willingly participated in new modes of hunting, even as impact on wildlife rapidly accelerated and became unsustainable. Yet as non-indigenous approaches to nature became normative, there was sometimes also resistance from Gond communities. As overkill accelerated, this led to exclusion of local peoples from natural resources, to their increasing incorporation into dominant political and economic systems, and to the eventual collapse of hunting as a livelihood. All of this raises the question: To what extent were subaltern subjects, like wildlife, ‘the hunted’ in colonial India

Physically Similar Systems - A History of the Concept

PreprintThe concept of similar systems arose in physics, and appears to have originated with Newton in the seventeenth century. This chapter provides a critical history of the concept of physically similar systems, the twentieth century concept into which it developed. The concept was used in the nineteenth century in various fields of engineering (Froude, Bertrand, Reech), theoretical physics (van der Waals, Onnes, Lorentz, Maxwell, Boltzmann) and theoretical and experimental hydrodynamics (Stokes, Helmholtz, Reynolds, Prandtl, Rayleigh). In 1914, it was articulated in terms of ideas developed in the eighteenth century and used in nineteenth century mathematics and mechanics: equations, functions and dimensional analysis. The terminology physically similar systems was proposed for this new characterization of similar systems by the physicist Edgar Buckingham. Related work by Vaschy, Bertrand, and Riabouchinsky had appeared by then. The concept is very powerful in studying physical phenomena both theoretically and experimentally. As it is not currently part of the core curricula of STEM disciplines or philosophy of science, it is not as well known as it ought to be

Global observations and forecast skill

The impact of selected observing systems on forecast skill is explored using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40) system. Analyses have been produced for a surface-based observing system typical of the period prior to 1945/1950, a terrestrial-based observing system typical of the period 1950-1979 and a satellite-based observing system consisting of surface pressure and satellite observations. Global prediction experiments have been undertaken using these analyses as initial states, and which are available every 6 h, for the boreal winters of 1990/1991 and 2000/2001 and the summer of 2000, using a more recent version of the ECMWF model. The results show that for 500-hPa geopotential height, as a representative field, the terrestrial system in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is only slightly inferior to the control system, which makes use of all observations for the analysis, and is also more accurate than the satellite system. There are indications that the skill of the terrestrial system worsens slightly and the satellite system improves somewhat between 1990/1991 and 2000/2001. The forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by the satellite information and this dominance is larger in the latter period. The overall skill is only slightly worse than that of the Northern Hemisphere. In the tropics (20 degrees S-20 degrees N), using the wind at 850 and 250 hPa as representative fields, the information content in the terrestrial and satellite systems is almost equal and complementary. The surface-based system has very limited skill restricted to the lower troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Predictability calculations show a potential for a further increase in predictive skill of 1-2 d in the extratropics of both hemispheres, but a potential for a major improvement of many days in the tropics. As well as the Eulerian perspective of predictability, the storm tracks have been calculated from all experiments and validated for the extratropics to provide a Lagrangian perspective

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres

Economic evaluation of simulated and traditional clinical placements in occupational therapy education

© 2019 Occupational Therapy Australia Introduction: This economic evaluation complements results of the randomised controlled trial that established non-inferiority of the learning outcomes of a one-week simulated clinical placement (SCP) in occupational therapy qualifying degrees in comparison to an equivalent traditional clinical placement (TCP). This companion study presents detailed cost analyses of two placement alternatives and a cost-benefit study to assess the value for money of SCP. An economic evaluation of simulated versus traditional placements has not previously been conducted in Australia. Methods: Nine SCP/TCP rounds were conducted by six Australian universities. Costs were collected using study-specific instruments. Public health sector costs were sourced from available literature. Willingness-to-pay for SCP/TCP was estimated using both a Discrete Choice Experiment and a Contingent Valuation method. These methods were employed to assess a comparative ‘value’ of SCP/TCP from the perspective of heads of occupational therapy departments (N = 28), who were asked to put a monetary value on the broader range of benefits associated with SCP/TCP. Results: From the universities’ perspective the average cost per student ranged from AUD$460 to AUD$1511 for simulated and AUD$144 to AUD$1112 for traditional placement. From the health care sector perspective, the difference in costs favoured simulated placements for four implementations and traditional placements for five. In the Discrete Choice Experiment respondents preferred traditional rather than simulated placement and would pay additional AUD$533. The estimated monetary value of simulated placements from a contingent valuation ranged from AUD$200 to AUD$1600. Conclusions: For universities that procure TCPs predominately at public health care facilities and sustain high administrative overheads, the SCP program could be a cost-saving alternative. From a broader value-for-money perspective, respondents favoured TCP over SCP, yet placed importance on placement availability and opportunity to demonstrate competence for students during the placement. Results should be interpreted with caution and further research with larger sample sizes is required