(How) does productivity matter in the foundational economy?

Academics and policy makers have increasingly recognised the importance of mundane economic activities – variously termed foundational or everyday – by academics and policy makers. The foundational or everyday economy is now featuring in local industrial strategy and economic action plans, because the desirable high-tech sectors on the ‘frontier’ cannot diffuse prosperity within and between regions. This paper aims to distinguish between several different approaches to the foundational or everyday economy and argues that a constructive approach needs to break with the preoccupation about improving productivity. This argument is developed in three stages. First, we distinguish between a social approach and a more technical economic approach to delimiting this other mundane economy; the defining feature of the foundational in the social approach is contribution to wellbeing and in the technical economic approach it is low productivity. The second section presents and explores productivity evidence on output per worker hour across a range of foundational activities and by region. Drawing out the implications of observed diversity and heterogeneity, the third section develops an argument about how productivity has limited relevance as measure and target in foundational activitie

Opportunity lost: Mystification, elite politics and financial reform in the UK

The first phase of the crisis in Britain – from the 2007 failure of Northern Rock to the post Lehman systemic crisis of autumn 2008 – was a demystifying moment, when finance sector alibis, technocratic expertise and the assumptions of the political classes were tested and found wanting under pressure of unanticipated events. The banking rescue of 2007-8 amounted to the socialization of banking losses at a cost to the UK taxpayer of up to £1,000 billion or more (if we include contingent liabilities and exclude quantitative easing). British taxpayers got very little in return. The challenge of a brief democratic moment was met by the restatement of old pre-crisis narratives about the importance of ‘flexible’, market responsive regulation, and about the social value of finance. The result so far is marginalisation of left and radical forces (or no change on the past twenty-five years). Against this background, this essay has two interlinked aims. First, it presents an analysis of political obstacles to democratic control and reform of the finance sector that caused the financial crisis of 2007-8; a crisis that, after extreme intervention to save banks and support markets, has by 2010-11 become a fiscal crisis for individual states and a sovereign debt crisis for the eurozone. Second, it addresses (in this context) the role of ‘ideology’ within the socio-political process by examining how discourses format the world through what is now called ‘performativity’. And it shows how this new kind of discursive description can be developed and integrated with more established kinds of institutional analysis so as to generate new insights into the political obstacles to reform. The argument below is illustrated with UK evidence and our aim is to provide an analysis of national peculiarities, but the issues raised are relevant to other jurisdictions (national and supra national). We hope to raise broad questions about the mechanisms of elite power in present day capitalism where the importance of narrative has intensified since Reagan and Thatcher. We also aim to encourage reflection on how narrative power could be challenged so as to deliver a more democratic reform of finance

Research ethics oversight in Norway : structure, function, and challenges

Background While the development and evaluation of clinical ethics services in Norway has been recognized internationally, the country’s research ethics infrastructure at times may have been less well developed. In 2016, media interest in the controversial nature of some health services research and pilot studies highlighted gaps in the system with certain types of research having no clear mechanisms through which they may be given due independent consideration. It is not clear that new legislation, implemented in 2017, will address this problem. Summary We explore relevant law, committee scope, and the function of the system. We show that 1) Norwegian law provides for ethics assessment for all forms of health research; 2) regional RECs in Norway might not have always enforced this provision, considering some interventional health services research to be outside their remit; and 3) Norwegian law does not explicity provide for local/university RECs, meaning that, in practice, there may be no readily accessible mechanisms for the assessment of research that is excluded by regional RECs. This may include health services research, pilot studies, and undergraduate research. New 2017 legislation has no effect on this specifically but focuses on institutions regulating researcher activity. This may place researchers in the difficult situation of on one hand, needing to hold to recognized ethical standards, while on the other, not readily having access to independent committee scrutiny to facilitate consistent operation with these standards. Conclusion To support researchers in Norway and to protect the public, it may be necessary either to widen the regional RECs’ remit or to make legislative alterations that permit and do not discourage the existence of local RECs

Constituting monetary conservatives via the 'savings habit': New Labour and the British housing market bubble

The ongoing world credit crunch might well kill off the most recent bubble dynamics in the British housing market by driving prices systematically downwards from their 2007 peak. Nonetheless, the experience of that bubble still warrants analytical attention. The Labour Government might not have been responsible for consciously creating it, but it has certainly grasped the opportunities the bubble has provided in an attempt to enforce a process of agential change at the heart of the British economy. The key issue in this respect is the way in which the Government has challenged the legitimacy of passive welfare receipts in favour of establishing a welfare system based on incorporating the individual into an active asset-holding society. The housing market has taken on new political significance as a means for individuals first to acquire assets and then to accumulate wealth on the back of asset ownership. The ensuing integration of the housing market into an increasingly reconfigured welfare system has permeated into the politics of everyday life. It has been consistent with individuals remaking their political subjectivities in line with preferences for the type of conservative monetary policies that typically keep house price bubbles inflated

Methodological criteria for the assessment of moderators in systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials : a consensus study

Background: Current methodological guidelines provide advice about the assessment of sub-group analysis within RCTs, but do not specify explicit criteria for assessment. Our objective was to provide researchers with a set of criteria that will facilitate the grading of evidence for moderators, in systematic reviews. Method: We developed a set of criteria from methodological manuscripts (n = 18) using snowballing technique, and electronic database searches. Criteria were reviewed by an international Delphi panel (n = 21), comprising authors who have published methodological papers in this area, and researchers who have been active in the study of sub-group analysis in RCTs. We used the Research ANd Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness method to assess consensus on the quantitative data. Free responses were coded for consensus and disagreement. In a subsequent round additional criteria were extracted from the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook, and the process was repeated. Results: The recommendations are that meta-analysts report both confirmatory and exploratory findings for subgroups analysis. Confirmatory findings must only come from studies in which a specific theory/evidence based apriori statement is made. Exploratory findings may be used to inform future/subsequent trials. However, for inclusion in the meta-analysis of moderators, the following additional criteria should be applied to each study: Baseline factors should be measured prior to randomisation, measurement of baseline factors should be of adequate reliability and validity, and a specific test of the interaction between baseline factors and interventions must be presented. Conclusions: There is consensus from a group of 21 international experts that methodological criteria to assess moderators within systematic reviews of RCTs is both timely and necessary. The consensus from the experts resulted in five criteria divided into two groups when synthesising evidence: confirmatory findings to support hypotheses about moderators and exploratory findings to inform future research. These recommendations are discussed in reference to previous recommendations for evaluating and reporting moderator studies

A Core Outcome Set for Preventive Intervention Trials in Chronic and Episodic Migraine (COSMIG):an international, consensus-derived and multistakeholder initiative

Objective Typically, migraine prevention trials focus on reducing migraine days. This narrow focus may not capture all that is important to people with migraine. Inconsistency in outcome selection across trials limits the potential for data pooling and evidence synthesis. In response, we describe the development of core outcome set for migraine (COSMIG). Design A two-stage approach sought to achieve international, multistakeholder consensus on both the core domain set and core measurement set. Following construction of a comprehensive list of outcomes, expert panellists (patients, healthcare professionals and researchers) completed a three-round electronic-Delphi study to support a reduction and prioritisation of core domains and outcomes. Participants in a consensus meeting finalised the core domains and methods of assessment. All stages were overseen by an international core team, including patient research partners. Results There was a good representation of patients (episodic migraine (n=34) and chronic migraine (n=42)) and healthcare professionals (n=33) with high response and retention rates. The initial list of domains and outcomes was reduced from >50 to 7 core domains for consideration in the consensus meeting, during which a 2-domain core outcome set was agreed. Conclusion International and multistakeholder consensus emerged to describe a two-domain core outcome set for reporting research on preventive interventions for chronic and episodic migraine: migraine-specific pain and migraine-specific quality of life. Intensity of migraine pain assessed with an 11-point Numerical Rating Scale and the frequency as the number of headache/migraine days over a specified time period. Migraine-specific quality of life assessed using the Migraine Functional Impact Questionnaire

Core outcome set for preventive intervention trials in chronic and episodic migraine (COSMIG): an international, consensus-derived and multistakeholder initiative

OBJECTIVE: Typically, migraine prevention trials focus on reducing migraine days. This narrow focus may not capture all that is important to people with migraine. Inconsistency in outcome selection across trials limits the potential for data pooling and evidence synthesis. In response, we describe the development of core outcome set for migraine (COSMIG). DESIGN: A two-stage approach sought to achieve international, multistakeholder consensus on both the core domain set and core measurement set. Following construction of a comprehensive list of outcomes, expert panellists (patients, healthcare professionals and researchers) completed a three-round electronic-Delphi study to support a reduction and prioritisation of core domains and outcomes. Participants in a consensus meeting finalised the core domains and methods of assessment. All stages were overseen by an international core team, including patient research partners. RESULTS: There was a good representation of patients (episodic migraine (n=34) and chronic migraine (n=42)) and healthcare professionals (n=33) with high response and retention rates. The initial list of domains and outcomes was reduced from >50 to 7 core domains for consideration in the consensus meeting, during which a 2-domain core outcome set was agreed. CONCLUSION: International and multistakeholder consensus emerged to describe a two-domain core outcome set for reporting research on preventive interventions for chronic and episodic migraine: migraine-specific pain and migraine-specific quality of life. Intensity of migraine pain assessed with an 11-point Numerical Rating Scale and the frequency as the number of headache/migraine days over a specified time period. Migraine-specific quality of life assessed using the Migraine Functional Impact Questionnaire

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Relative performance of machine learning and linear regression in predicting quality of life and academic performance of school children in Norway : data analysis of a quasi-experimental study

Background: Machine learning (ML) approaches are increasingly being used in health research. It is not clear how useful these approaches are for modelling continuous health outcomes. Child quality of life (QoL) is associated with parental socioeconomic status and child activity levels, and may be associated with aerobic fitness and strength. It is not clear whether diet, or academic performance (AP) is associated with QoL. Objective: To compare predictive performances of ML approaches with linear regression for modelling QoL and AP using parental education and lifestyle data. Methods: We modelled data from children attending nine schools in a quasi-experimental study (NCT02495714). We split data randomly into training and validation sets, and simulated curvilinear, non-linear, and heteroscedastic variables. We examined relative performance of ML approaches using R2, making comparisons to mixed and fixed models, and regression with splines, with and without imputation. We also examined the effect of training set size on overfitting. Results: We had 1,711 cases. Using real data, our regression models explained 24% of AP variance in the complete-case validation set, and up to 15% of QoL variance. While ML models explained high proportions of variance in training sets, in validation sets these explained ~0% of AP and between 3% and 8% of QoL. Following imputation, ML models improved up to 15% for AP. ML models outperformed regression for modelling simulated non-linear and heteroscedastic variables only. A smaller training set did not lead to increased overfitting. The best predictors of QoL were 7-point self-reported activity (P<.001; ß=1.09 (95% CI 0.53 to 1.66)) and TV/computer use (P=.002; ß=-0.95 (-1.55 to -0.36)). For AP, these were mother having master’s-level education (P<.001; ß=1.98 (0.25 to 3.71)) and dichotomised self-reported activity (P=.001; ß=2.47 (1.08 to 3.87)). Adjusted academic performance was associated with QoL (P=.02; ß=0.12 (0.02 to 0.22)). Conclusions: Exercising to cause sweat once per week and 2 hours per day of TV or computer use are associated with small-to-medium increases and decreases in child QoL, respectively. An increase in AP of 20 units is associated with a small increase in QoL. A mother having higher and master’s-level education, 2 hours per day of TV or computer use, and taking at least 2 hours of exercise, are each associated with small-to-medium increases in AP. Differences between effects of computer/TV use for work/leisure needs further investigation. Linear regression is less prone to overfitting and performs better than ML in predicting continuous health outcomes in a dataset containing missing data. Imputation improves ML performance but not enough to outperform regression. ML outperformed regression with non-linear and heteroscedastic data and may be of use when such relationships exist, and where imputation is sensible or there are no missing data. Clinical Trial: The data are from a quasi-experimental design and not an RCT but nevertheless the study from which the data are from does have a registration: NCT0249571

Factors influencing citrus fruit scarring caused by Pezothrips kellyanus

[EN] Kelly s citrus thrips (KCT) Pezothrips kellyanus (Bagnall) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) is a recently recorded cosmopolitan citrus pest, causing fruit scarring that results in downgrading of fruit. Due to the detrimental effects caused on fruits by KCT, we wanted to study some of the factors influencing fruit scarring. Specifically, the objectives were: (1) to determine the fruit development stage when citrus fruits are damaged by KCT and the population structure of KCT during this period, (2) to study the influence of temperature on intensity of damage, and finally, (3) to identify alternative host plants. KCT populations on flowers and fruitlets and alternate plant hosts were sampled in four citrus orchards from 2008 to 2010. The percentage of damaged fruits was also recorded. The exotic vine Araujia sericifera (Apocynaceae) was recorded as a new host for KCT. Thrips scarring started to increase at 350 650 degree-days (DD) above 10.2 C, coinciding with a peak abundance of the second instar larval stages over all 3 years of the study. The maximum percentage of larval stages of KCT was observed in the 3 years at about 500 DD, a period which corresponds to the end of May or early June. Variation in the severity of fruit scarring appeared to be related to air temperature. Temperature likely affects the synchronisation between the peak in abundance of KCT larvae, and the period when fruitlets are susceptible to thrips damage. Temperature can also influence the survival and development of KCT populations in citrus and other host plants in the citrus agro-ecosystem.The authors thank Alejandro Tena for his valuable suggestions and two anonymous referees for their careful review and helpful comments. We also extend our thanks to the owners of the commercial orchards for giving us permission to use their citrus orchards. 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