Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard

An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5, is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean currents. The model is also a substantial input for drift modeling of pollutants, ice berg, and in search-and-rescue pertinent applications in the Arctic domain. Barents-2.5 has recently been upgraded to include an Ensemble Prediction System with 24 daily realizations of the model state. SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography are constrained through the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme executed in daily forecast cycles with lead time up to 66 hours. While the ocean circulation is not directly constrained by assimilation of ocean currents, the model ensemble represents the given uncertainty in the short-term current field by retaining the current state for each member throughout forecast cycles. Here we present the model setup and a validation in terms of SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography. The performance of the ensemble to represent the models uncertainty, and the performance of the EnKF to constrain the model state are discussed, in addition to the model&rsquo;s forecast capabilities for SIC and SST.</p

The Role of the Central Wisconsin Farmer in Collaborative Planning to Preserve the Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus)

As we continue to debate the effects, solutions, and long term consequences of our actions one thing remains certain; environmental degradation is a direct result of human actions. Here in Central Wisconsin grassland habitat has been on the decline for the past 50 years, primarily due to anthropogenic driven land use changes. Consequently upland species, in particular the Greater-Prairie Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus), have been negatively affected. Tremendous strides have been made in merging social science to understand the role of society in environmental degradation. However, as change remains a constant there will likely never be a single solution. As a result, there is a demand for a strategic planning approach which incorporates both the geospatial and social sciences necessary to resolve the multidimensional problem occurring in this landscape. The overall objective of these studies was to understand the role of the Central Wisconsin farmer in strategic conservation planning to preserve the Greater Prairie-Chicken. To better understand the geospatial component of the strategic conservation planning paradigm two separate, but related, geospatial analyses were employed using ArcGIS (v.10.2) and previously published methods to complete two objectives. The first objective sought to identify and quantify Central Wisconsin’s land use changes with regard to grassland habitat conversion from 1992-2010. The second objective sought to quantify Central Wisconsin’s remaining core grassland. Results for objective 1 indicate an 18 year negative trend. Central Wisconsin has seen an 18.37% (229,797 acres) loss in grassland habitat due to land use changes. Furthermore, within the Central Wisconsin Grassland Conservation Area (CWGCA), 15.07% (49,690 acres) have been lost. Results for objective 2 indicate that there remains 1.02 million acres of fragmented grassland habitat. However, of this total only 5.13% (52,323 acres) were considered core patches. The results of this study locate priority areas for allocation of limited resources. To better understand the human dimension component of the strategic conservation planning paradigm a five wave mail survey was sent to 312 individual private landowners (N=312) to complete two objectives. The first objective sought to develop a typology of Central Wisconsin farmers based on collective belief systems toward collaborative conservation approaches. The second objective explored differences and similarities that exist between farmer groups. A response rate of 35.8% was attained; yielding 112 (n=112) completed and returned surveys. The inverted-R analysis employed exposed three different collective belief systems towards various collaborative approaches (group 1 n=47, group 2 n=15, and group 3 n=7). Respondents were grouped accordingly and 15 independent sample t-tests were used to investigate where group mean responses statistically differed to preferred collaborating partners, preferred collaborating models, and importance of continued Greater Prairie Chicken and grassland habitat management. No statistical difference was identified between groups with regard to preferred collaborative models, or importance of continued Greater Prairie-Chicken and grassland habitat. However, statistical significance was identified with regard to preferred collaborating partners. Results indicate that multiple farmer typologies exist in the Central Wisconsin landscape. Each farmer typology has preferred methods of involvement in the planning process

Nationalism in Norway in the Middle Ages

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