Minimax Optimality of CUSUM for an Autoregressive Model

Different change point models for AR(1) processes are reviewed. For some models, the change is in the distribution conditional on earlier observations. For others the change is in the unconditional distribution. Some models include an observation before the first possible change time — others not. Earlier and new CUSUM type methods are given and minimax optimality is examined. For the conditional model with an observation before the possible change there are sharp results of optimality in the literature. The unconditional model with possible change at (or before) the first observation is of interest for applications. We examined this case and derived new variants of four earlier suggestions. By numerical methods and Monte Carlo simulations it was demonstrated that the new variants dominate the original ones. However, none of the methods is uniformly minimax optimal.Autoregressive; Change point; Monitoring; Online detection

A mathematical model for the interpretation of nuclear bomb test derived 14C incorporation in biological systems

International audienceHuman tissues continually replace dying cells with newborn cells. However, the rate of renewal varies by orders of magnitudes between blood cells, which are renewed every day and neurons, for which renewal is non-existent or limited to specific regions of the brain. Between those extreme are many tissues that turnover on a time scale of years, although no direct measurements have been done. We present here a mathematical method to estimate cell turnover in slowly renewing biological systems. Age distribution of DNA can be estimated from the integration of radiocarbon derived from nuclear bomb-testing during the cold war (1955–1963). For slowly renewing tissues, this method provides a better estimate of the average age of the tissue than direct estimates from the bomb-curve. Moreover, death, birth and turnover rates can be estimated. We highlight this method with data from human fat cells

TrkB signaling is required for postnatal survival of CNS neurons and protects hippocampal and motor neurons from axotomy-induced cell death

Newborn mice carrying targeted mutations in genes encoding neurotrophins or their signaling Trk receptors display severe neuronal deficits in the peripheral nervous system but not in the CNS. In this study, we show that trkB (¿/¿) mice have a significant increase in apoptotic cell death in different regions of the brain during early postnatal life. The most affected region in the brain is the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, although elevated levels of pyknotic nuclei were also detected in cortical layers II and III and V and VI, the striatum, and the thalamus. Furthermore, axotomized hippocampal and motor neurons of trkB (¿/¿) mice have significantly lower survival rates than those of wild-type littermates. These results suggest that neurotrophin signaling through TrkB receptors plays a role in the survival of CNS neurons during postnatal development. Moreover, they indicate that TrkB receptor signaling protects subpopulations of CNS neurons from injury- and axotomy-induced cell death

Revisiting remyelination: Towards a consensus on the regeneration of CNS myelin.

The biology of CNS remyelination has attracted considerable interest in recent years because of its translational potential to yield regenerative therapies for the treatment of chronic and progressive demyelinating diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS). Critical to devising myelin regenerative therapies is a detailed understanding of how remyelination occurs. The accepted dogma, based on animal studies, has been that the myelin sheaths of remyelination are made by oligodendrocytes newly generated from adult oligodendrocyte progenitor cells in a classical regenerative process of progenitor migration, proliferation and differentiation. However, recent human and a growing number of animal studies have revealed a second mode of remyelination in which mature oligodendrocytes surviving within an area of demyelination are able to regenerate new myelin sheaths. This discovery, while opening up new opportunities for therapeutic remyelination, has also raised the question of whether there are fundamental differences in myelin regeneration between humans and some of the species in which experimental remyelination studies are conducted. Here we review how this second mode of remyelination can be integrated into a wider and revised framework for understanding remyelination in which apparent species differences can be reconciled but that also raises important questions for future research.We thank Sarah Neely, University of Edinburgh, for generating the schematic figure. Work in the Franklin lab is supported by UK Multiple Sclerosis Society, the Adelson Medical ResearchFoundation, and a core support grant from the Wellcome and MRC to the Wellcome-MedicalResearch Council Cambridge Stem Cell Institute. , in the Frisen lab by Swedish Research Council, the Swedish Cancer Society, the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research, Knutoch Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse and the ERC, and in the Lyons lab by the Wellcome Trust, the UK Multiple Sclerosis Society, the MRC, and Biogen

Risks of psychiatric disorders and suicide attempts in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes : a population-based cohort study

Objective To assess the risk of psychiatric disorders and suicide attempts in children with type 1 diabetes and their healthy siblings. Research Design and Methods We performed a population-based case cohort study of individuals born in Sweden between 1973 and 2009. Children with type 1 diabetes (n=17,122) and their healthy siblings (n=18,847) were identified and followed until their 18th birthday. Their risk of psychiatric disorders was compared with matched controls. Results The risk of psychiatric morbidity in children with type 1 diabetes compared to the general population was tripled within 6 months after the onset of diabetes (hazard ratio, HR 3.0, 95% confidence interval, CI 2.7-3.4) and doubled within the total observation period (HR 2.1, CI 2.0-2.2). An increased risk was noted in suicide attempts (HR 1.7, CI 1.4-2.0) and in most categories of psychiatric disorders. The risk of psychiatric disorders in probands declined from HR 2.7 (CI 2.2-3.3) for those in the cohort born 1973-1986 to 1.9 (CI 1.8-2.0) in those born 1997-2009. The risk for any psychiatric disorders among siblings of patients with type 1 diabetes was estimated to be HR 1.1 (CI 1.0-1.1) and there was no increased risk in any of the specific category of disorders. Conclusions Children with type 1 diabetes are at high risk of psychiatric disorders, which seems to be a consequence of the disease rather than due to a common familial etiology. The results support recommendations on comprehensive mental health surveillance in children with type 1 diabetes, especially in recently diagnosed children.The Polish Ministry of Science and Higher EducationThe National Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentThe Swedish Research CouncilThe Swedish Initiative for Research on Microdata in the Social and Medical Sciences (SIMSAM)The Regional Agreement On Medical Training And Clinical Research (ALF) between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska InstitutetThe Swedish Heart and Lung FoundationThe Strategic Research Program in Epidemiology at Karolinska InstitutetThe Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfarethe Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions fundsManuscrip

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) withdrawal masks gene expression differences in the study of pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide (PACAP) activation of primary neural stem cell proliferation

BACKGROUND: The recently discovered adult neural stem cells, which maintain continuous generation of new neuronal and glial cells throughout adulthood, are a promising and expandable source of cells for use in cell replacement therapies within the central nervous system. These cells could either be induced to proliferate and differentiate endogenously, or expanded and differentiated in culture before being transplanted into the damaged site of the brain. In order to achieve these goals effective strategies to isolate, expand and differentiate neural stem cells into the desired specific phenotypes must be developed. However, little is known as yet about the factors and mechanisms influencing these processes. It has recently been reported that pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide (PACAP) promotes neural stem cell proliferation both in vivo and in vitro. RESULTS: We used cDNA microarrays with the aim of analysing the transcriptional changes underlying PACAP induced proliferation of neural stem cells. The primary neural stem/progenitor cells used were neurospheres, generated from the lateral ventricle wall of the adult mouse brain. The results were compared to both differentiation and proliferation controls, which revealed an unexpected and significant differential expression relating to withdrawal of epidermal growth factor (EGF) from the neurosphere growth medium. The effect of EGF removal was so pronounced that it masked the changes in gene expression patterns produced by the addition of PACAP. CONCLUSION: Experimental models aiming at transcriptional analysis of induced proliferation in primary neural stem cells need to take into consideration the significant effect on transcription caused by removal of EGF. Alternatively, EGF-free culture conditions need to be developed

Child and Adolescent Predictors of Personality in Early Adulthood.

This study investigated development of the Big Five personality traits from early childhood into adulthood. An initial group of 137 Swedish children were assessed eight times between ages 2 and 29 years. Initial decreases in extraversion leveled off in early adulthood; agreeableness and conscientiousness increased from ages 2 to 29; neuroticism initially increased, leveled off in later childhood and adolescence, and decreased throughout early adulthood; while openness to experience showed an initial increase, then decreased and leveled off in early adulthood. Individual developmental trajectories varied significantly, particularly in relation to gender. Personality traits became increasingly stable, and the fact that childhood scores predicted scores in adulthood indicated that personalities are fairly stable across this portion of the life span.This is the accepted manusript. It's currently embargoed until 20/03/2016. The final version is available from Wiley at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cdev.12362/abstrac

Hypospadias as a novel feature in spinal bulbar muscle atrophy

Spinal and bulbar muscle atrophy (SBMA) is an X-linked neuromuscular disorder caused by CAG repeat expansions in the androgen receptor (AR) gene. The SBMA phenotype consists of slowly progressive neuromuscular symptoms and undermasculinization features as the result of malfunction of the AR. The latter mainly includes gynecomastia and infertility. Hypospadias is also a feature of undermasculinization with an underdeveloped urethra and penis; it has not been described as part of the SBMA phenotype but has been suggested to be associated with a prolonged CAG repeat in the AR gene. This study includes the first epidemiologic description of the co-occurrence of hypospadias and SBMA in subjects and their male relatives in Swedish population-based health registers, as well as an additional clinical case. One boy with severe hypospadias was screened for mutations in the AR gene and was found to have 42 CAG repeats in it, which is in the full range of mutations causing SBMA later in life. We also detected a maximum of four cases displaying the combination of SBMA and hypospadias in our national register databases. This is the third case report with hypospadias in association with CAG repeat expansions in the AR gene in the full range known to cause SBMA later in life. Our findings suggest that hypospadias may be an under diagnosed feature of the SBMA phenotype and we propose that neurologists working with SBMA further investigate and report the true prevalence of hypospadias among patients with SBMA.Swedish Research Council, K2012-64X-14506-10-5Stockholm City CouncilFoundation Frimurare Barnhuset in StockholmSwedish Research Council through the Swedish Initiative for Research on Microdata in the Social And Medical Sciences (SIMSAM), 340-2013-5867Accepte

Structural Change in (Economic) Time Series

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. Several recent methods for dating structural changes are compared using a time series of oil prices spanning more than 60 years. The methods broadly agree for the first part of the series up to the mid-1980s, for which changes are associated with major historical events, but provide somewhat different solutions thereafter, reflecting a gradual increase in oil prices that is not well described by a step function. As a further illustration, 1990s data on the volatility of the Hang Seng stock market index are reanalyzed.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure